According to China, it already has, and they see reunification with the South as a probability.
Its a long read, but very eye opening. Cables from Wikileaks.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/29/wikileaks-cables-china-reunified-korea

"The two officials, Chun said, were ready to 'face the new reality' that the DPRK [North Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state – a view that, since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC [People's Republic of China] leaders. Chun argued that in the event of a North Korean collapse, China would clearly 'not welcome' any US military presence north of the DMZ [demilitarised zone]. Again citing his conversations with [the officials], Chun said the PRC would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the US in a 'benign alliance' – as long as Korea was not hostile towards China. Tremendous trade and labour-export opportunities for Chinese companies, Chun said, would also help 'salve' PRC concerns about ... a reunified Korea.

North Korea is a failed State, it collapsed years ago, it limps along only with the support of China and ocassional humanitarian aide which is quickly absorbed by the military.


Billy

Quote from: BILLY-bONNEY on November 30, 2010, 03:27:28 PM
North Korea is a failed State, it collapsed years ago, it limps along only with the support of China and ocassional humanitarian aide which is quickly absorbed by the military.


Billy

Granted they have never produced anything the rest of the World is interested in buying, but its what they say in the article that says its near collapse.
With Kim Jong mentally ill stepping down and his son taking over, they see civil unrest once Kim dies and there will be no stopping it.

We may see a new Korea in a couple of years.

I completely distrust the Chinese, who swing the big stick over there. It is beyond my ability to believe that the ChiComs would just sit idly by while the northern part of the Korean peninsula is removed from their direct sphere of influence. China paid a massive price in blood during the Korean War -- second in casualties only to the North Koreans themselves, who started it all -- and that was their payment for keeping  North Korea separate and firmly in the Communist camp.

Quote from: tbone0106 on November 30, 2010, 05:18:30 PM
I completely distrust the Chinese, who swing the big stick over there. It is beyond my ability to believe that the ChiComs would just sit idly by while the northern part of the Korean peninsula is removed from their direct sphere of influence. China paid a massive price in blood during the Korean War -- second in casualties only to the North Koreans themselves, who started it all -- and that was their payment for keeping  North Korea separate and firmly in the Communist camp.

Twenty years ago, I'd have agreed in total, but now?

Think about what a unified Korea on their border would mean.
Access to the latest in Western technology, spying would be a breeze, as if it isn't already, but even easier.
The Chinese aren't foolish, they are like the Ferengie (Deep Space 9 reference). ;)
They are out for China and nothing else, and rightly so.

Geez, Solar, did ya have to go and insult the Ferengie like that?   :o

Quote from: Solar on November 30, 2010, 05:26:56 PM
Twenty years ago, I'd have agreed in total, but now?

Think about what a unified Korea on their border would mean.
Access to the latest in Western technology, spying would be a breeze, as if it isn't already, but even easier.
The Chinese aren't foolish, they are like the Ferengie (Deep Space 9 reference). ;)
They are out for China and nothing else, and rightly so.

What part of Western technology did Bill Clinton not give them?  :))

So far, China has not publicly taken sides, choosing to equally condemn all sides. But of course, the North Koreans have been the consistent aggressors, violating international law and UN sanctions (very important, that...  ::)) at will. If you combine their current stance with their history, the Chinese don't look much like they're really down on the NKs at all.

China is already buying the US in wholesale chunks. I don't think they need anything a unified Korea could offer them.

According to a study done by the State Department, made public courtesy of Wikileaks, China doesn't have anywhere near the influence over North Korea a lot of people assume and is, in fact, kept at arms-length just like the rest of the world.

I find that a little tough to believe but not impossible. Like all dictators Kim Jong Il has no friends so his relationship with China is based on suspicion and force. Kim's got a lot of suspicion and he knows China can exert a lot of force.

But I'm beginning to think North Korea may be one of those advantages that China would just as soon do without.

Economically North Korea's dependent on China to a great extent but North Korea's in such desperate condition economically that were it to collapse there'd be a millions of hungry Koreans flooding into China.

And then what? Reunification?

Maybe since China's problem, which they don't want, would become South Korea's problem which South Korea does want. What would China want in return? U.S. forces out South Korea? Probably no need to make the demand since without a North Korea neither South Korea nor the U.S. would have a reason to maintain a U.S. military presence. In fact, helping reunification along would go a long way towards helping China establish a less threatening and more reasonable reputation. China's reputation has taken a beating over their actions in Tibet so repairing China's image, while getting rid of an annoying problem, would be a win all around.

It's be nice to see the North Korean regime fall but people have been repeating that sentiment for over fifty years so I won't hold my breath.

Quote from: arpad on November 30, 2010, 06:10:37 PM
According to a study done by the State Department, made public courtesy of Wikileaks, China doesn't have anywhere near the influence over North Korea a lot of people assume and is, in fact, kept at arms-length just like the rest of the world.

I find that a little tough to believe but not impossible. Like all dictators Kim Jong Il has no friends so his relationship with China is based on suspicion and force. Kim's got a lot of suspicion and he knows China can exert a lot of force.

But I'm beginning to think North Korea may be one of those advantages that China would just as soon do without.

Economically North Korea's dependent on China to a great extent but North Korea's in such desperate condition economically that were it to collapse there'd be a millions of hungry Koreans flooding into China.

And then what? Reunification?

Maybe since China's problem, which they don't want, would become South Korea's problem which South Korea does want. What would China want in return? U.S. forces out South Korea? Probably no need to make the demand since without a North Korea neither South Korea nor the U.S. would have a reason to maintain a U.S. military presence. In fact, helping reunification along would go a long way towards helping China establish a less threatening and more reasonable reputation. China's reputation has taken a beating over their actions in Tibet so repairing China's image, while getting rid of an annoying problem, would be a win all around.

It's be nice to see the North Korean regime fall but people have been repeating that sentiment for over fifty years so I won't hold my breath.

Well said Arpad.
China admitted they could absorb 300 thousand without any problems.
It would appear they are considering the obvious.
But like you said, the rest will be the Souths problem.

And you're right, there would no longer be a need for a heavy Military presence, a double win for China.

Quote from: Solar on November 30, 2010, 06:27:59 PM
Well said Arpad.
China admitted they could absorb 300 thousand without any problems.
It would appear they are considering the obvious.
But like you said, the rest will be the Souths problem.

And you're right, there would no longer be a need for a heavy Military presence, a double win for China.

It's worth noting too that nearly 40,000 US troops would suddenly be released for other duty, or for discharge.

Reunification has already been done in Germany. It was ugly, but it got done.

Quote from: AmericanFlyer on November 30, 2010, 05:33:16 PM
Geez, Solar, did ya have to go and insult the Ferengie like that?   :o

It's easy if you just think about it.

Quote from: quiller on November 30, 2010, 08:07:27 PM


It's easy if you just think about it.

;D
Hmmmm interesting...

Quote from: arpad on November 30, 2010, 06:10:37 PM
According to a study done by the State Department, made public courtesy of Wikileaks, China doesn't have anywhere near the influence over North Korea a lot of people assume and is, in fact, kept at arms-length just like the rest of the world.

I find that a little tough to believe but not impossible. Like all dictators Kim Jong Il has no friends so his relationship with China is based on suspicion and force. Kim's got a lot of suspicion and he knows China can exert a lot of force.

But I'm beginning to think North Korea may be one of those advantages that China would just as soon do without.

Economically North Korea's dependent on China to a great extent but North Korea's in such desperate condition economically that were it to collapse there'd be a millions of hungry Koreans flooding into China.

And then what? Reunification?

Maybe since China's problem, which they don't want, would become South Korea's problem which South Korea does want. What would China want in return? U.S. forces out South Korea? Probably no need to make the demand since without a North Korea neither South Korea nor the U.S. would have a reason to maintain a U.S. military presence. In fact, helping reunification along would go a long way towards helping China establish a less threatening and more reasonable reputation. China's reputation has taken a beating over their actions in Tibet so repairing China's image, while getting rid of an annoying problem, would be a win all around.

It's be nice to see the North Korean regime fall but people have been repeating that sentiment for over fifty years so I won't hold my breath.

Bingo, except for the part about repairing image. If they are the big dog out there, then who cares what slave states think, being tied so dearly to the Chinese economy? Is South Korea stable enough to absorb that many people? Doubtful.

Quote from: Solar on November 30, 2010, 08:10:23 PM
;D
Hmmmm interesting...

And American Flyer is probably having a coronary.  ;D

Quote from: quiller on November 30, 2010, 08:12:14 PM
Bingo, except for the part about repairing image. If they are the big dog out there, then who cares what slave states think, being tied so dearly to the Chinese economy? Is South Korea stable enough to absorb that many people? Doubtful.

Again, this is more proof that its a win, win for Chiner.
We borrow money from china, we send those billions to South Korea to help the North out, and China just sits back and laughs.
Yeah, I see a unified Korea.