Of course you all know how I despise polling, but one thing they do show, regardless of their leftist bent, is attitude and that's hard to hide.
OK so reading all the polls, they all make the same claims despite reality, like Bush still having a fighting chance, or the illusion they create with Sanders, O'Malley and Clinton being in the running.
Truth is, none of the socialists generate enthusiasm, and as bad as Clinton is, she is still seen as the leader, but when you do the math, she only draws a tiny percentage of the Nations support.
The metrics always tell a clearer story than the illusion the headline portrays.

So lets look at the polls, shall we, and keep in mind, this is just a slice, but it's still reflective of the country as a whole.
Part of this was taken from the PDF which is a download, which can be found here:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf

Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Trump 48, Clinton 37   Trump +11
Colorado: Carson vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Carson 52, Clinton 38   Carson +14
Colorado: Rubio vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Rubio 52, Clinton 36   Rubio +16
Colorado: Cruz vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Cruz 51, Clinton 38   Cruz +13

This tells more about Trump, than all the hype hides.

Clinton has the lowest favorability rating of any top candidate in Colorado, a negative 33 – 61 percent. Trump also gets a negative 34 – 58 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other candidates are:
 49 – 30 percent positive for Carson;
 46 – 25 percent for Rubio;
 37 – 33 percent for Cruz;
 40 – 37 percent for Sanders.
Colorado voters say 67 – 30 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy and 57 – 37 percent that Trump is not honest. Rubio has the best score for honesty, 58 – 28 percent, with Sanders at 56 – 30 percent, Carson at 57 – 33 percent and Cruz at 50 – 35 percent.

Here's an important question. I only posted the first two numbers, the first being the over all total and the second is TEA, simply because to post the rest doesn't line up with the names and makes it really confusing.
Note Trump's high negatives, strangely enough, higher than Bush.

2. (If Registered Republican) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)

Bush 21% 32%
Carson 5 4
Christie 13 17
Cruz 6 1
Fiorina 7 4
Gilmore 9 13
Graham 12 15
Huckabee 10 12
Jindal 7 4
Kasich 18 29
Pataki 10 15
Paul 15 13
Rubio 5 4
Santorum 6 6
Trump 32 24

1. (If Registered Republican) Who would you most like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2016 if the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump?

           Tea           BornAgain   CONSERVATIVE   Mod/
Tot       Party        Evangelical     Very    Smwht    Lib   Men Wom

Bush 2%
Carson 25 22
Christie 1 2
Cruz 14 32
Fiorina 5 4
Gilmore - - - - - - - -
Graham - - - - - - - -
Huckabee 1 - 3 -
Jindal 1 2
Kasich 1 1
Pataki - - - - - - - -
Paul 3 2
Rubio 19 14
Santorum - -
Trump  17 15

For more indepth on favorable and unfavorable, and it is worth a look because it really does give an inside as to how the nation is moving towards Cruz.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf

I'm a big fan of five thirty eight for polling analysis - http://fivethirtyeight.com/

They do a lot of work identifying where error and bias in polls is coming from and really explain it well.  In 2008 they predicted 50/51 states+dc and in 2012 predicted every single one.

This is interesting, from the 2012 results;

Among the more prolific polling firms, the most accurate by this measure was TIPP, which conducted a national tracking poll for Investors' Business Daily. Relative to other national polls, their results seemed to be Democratic-leaning at the time they were published. However, it turned out that most polling firms underestimated Mr. Obama's performance, so those that had what had seemed to be Democratic-leaning results were often closest to the final outcome.

Conversely, polls that were Republican-leaning relative to the consensus did especially poorly.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Quote from: Solar on November 19, 2015, 07:15:54 AM
Of course you all know how I despise polling, but one thing they do show, regardless of their leftist bent, is attitude and that's hard to hide.
OK so reading all the polls, they all make the same claims despite reality, like Bush still having a fighting chance, or the illusion they create with Sanders, O'Malley and Clinton being in the running.
Truth is, none of the socialists generate enthusiasm, and as bad as Clinton is, she is still seen as the leader, but when you do the math, she only draws a tiny percentage of the Nations support.
The metrics always tell a clearer story than the illusion the headline portrays.

So lets look at the polls, shall we, and keep in mind, this is just a slice, but it's still reflective of the country as a whole.
Part of this was taken from the PDF which is a download, which can be found here:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf

Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Trump 48, Clinton 37   Trump +11
Colorado: Carson vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Carson 52, Clinton 38   Carson +14
Colorado: Rubio vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Rubio 52, Clinton 36   Rubio +16
Colorado: Cruz vs. Clinton   Quinnipiac    Cruz 51, Clinton 38   Cruz +13

This tells more about Trump, than all the hype hides.

Clinton has the lowest favorability rating of any top candidate in Colorado, a negative 33 – 61 percent. Trump also gets a negative 34 – 58 percent favorability rating. Favorability ratings for other candidates are:
 49 – 30 percent positive for Carson;
 46 – 25 percent for Rubio;
 37 – 33 percent for Cruz;
 40 – 37 percent for Sanders.
Colorado voters say 67 – 30 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy and 57 – 37 percent that Trump is not honest. Rubio has the best score for honesty, 58 – 28 percent, with Sanders at 56 – 30 percent, Carson at 57 – 33 percent and Cruz at 50 – 35 percent.

Here's an important question. I only posted the first two numbers, the first being the over all total and the second is TEA, simply because to post the rest doesn't line up with the names and makes it really confusing.
Note Trump's high negatives, strangely enough, higher than Bush.

2. (If Registered Republican) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Jindal, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)

Bush 21% 32%
Carson 5 4
Christie 13 17
Cruz 6 1
Fiorina 7 4
Gilmore 9 13
Graham 12 15
Huckabee 10 12
Jindal 7 4
Kasich 18 29
Pataki 10 15
Paul 15 13
Rubio 5 4
Santorum 6 6
Trump 32 24

1. (If Registered Republican) Who would you most like to see the Republicans nominate for President in 2016 if the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump?

           Tea           BornAgain   CONSERVATIVE   Mod/
Tot       Party        Evangelical     Very    Smwht    Lib   Men Wom

Bush 2%
Carson 25 22
Christie 1 2
Cruz 14 32
Fiorina 5 4
Gilmore - - - - - - - -
Graham - - - - - - - -
Huckabee 1 - 3 -
Jindal 1 2
Kasich 1 1
Pataki - - - - - - - -
Paul 3 2
Rubio 19 14
Santorum - -
Trump  17 15

For more indepth on favorable and unfavorable, and it is worth a look because it really does give an inside as to how the nation is moving towards Cruz.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf

The Colorado polls are very interesting. This state is supposed to be ome of those so called battleground states, but these results definite show a strong lean to the GOP. Remember the silent majority.

Quote from: supsalemgr on November 19, 2015, 08:15:02 AM
The Colorado polls are very interesting. This state is supposed to be ome of those so called battleground states, but these results definite show a strong lean to the GOP. Remember the silent majority.

Exactly why I chose it, I see Colorado as reflective of most of the US.
What I managed to glean from all of this and other polls, is Trump's negatives hold him back, as well as Carson's which only bares well for Cruz whom has yet to slide back in any polling, signifying his base is not only solid, but growing steadily.

Rubio on the other hand? Well no matter how they spin it, it comes down to a battle between him and Cruz in the end, and we know how that's going top play out.
Rubio at best, after Trump and Carson bow out, will have, if he's lucky 20%  support, while Cruz carries the lions share.

The results of the CO poll are interesting, but like all polls, they can be rigged by the pollsters. Denver, Boulder and parts of the San Luis valley are liberal strong holds and vote accordingly. What will be interesting is to see if Senator Bennet (D-CO) is defeated in 2016, and also the make up of the Colorado legislature. The governor is a flaming liberal nitwit that is welcoming the 'refugees' with open arms, and will suffer the consequences if that backfires.

Quote from: tac on November 19, 2015, 01:46:05 PM
The results of the CO poll are interesting, but like all polls, they can be rigged by the pollsters. Denver, Boulder and parts of the San Luis valley are liberal strong holds and vote accordingly. What will be interesting is to see if Senator Bennet (D-CO) is defeated in 2016, and also the make up of the Colorado legislature. The governor is a flaming liberal nitwit that is welcoming the 'refugees' with open arms, and will suffer the consequences if that backfires.

Absolutely true, but that's why you have to study the metrics re: trends, that's really the only thing they're useful for.

Quote from: tac on November 19, 2015, 01:46:05 PM
The results of the CO poll are interesting, but like all polls, they can be rigged by the pollsters. Denver, Boulder and parts of the San Luis valley are liberal strong holds and vote accordingly. What will be interesting is to see if Senator Bennet (D-CO) is defeated in 2016, and also the make up of the Colorado legislature. The governor is a flaming liberal nitwit that is welcoming the 'refugees' with open arms, and will suffer the consequences if that backfires.

There is no IF. It will backfire. Obama has handed the GOP an absolutely slam dunk for 2016. The BIG question is whether the GOP will seize the moment. Cruz seems to be ahead of the others on this issue.

The PPP poll is left leaning but I figured I'd post it because it looks like , by this poll, Cruz is the one showing real momentum! Cruz is 3rd in this poll and they have really started to notice him, Or rather admit he's there! Liknd of fascinating what they are saying!

QuoteDemocratic-leaning Public Policy Polling notes its latest survey shows that little has changed from October in the Republican top tier:
Trump: 26 percent
Ben Carson: 19 percent
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: 14 percent
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio: 13 percent
Jeb Bush: 5 percent
Carly Fiorina; 4 percent


SNIP


In a head-to-head contest, Trump loses to Cruz, however.
Trump/Cruz: 44/46
Trump/Rubio: 46/44
Trump/Carson: 50/41
Trump/Bush: 56/34
According to the pollster, Cruz has also had an improvement in his favorability ratings, from 50/30 a month ago to 55/26 in the current survey.

Among "very conservative voters," Cruz is ahead.




Cruz: 29 percent
Trump: 24 percent
Carson: 22 percent
Also, among tea party voters:
Cruz; 26 percent
Trump: 23 percent
Carson: 23 percent
"He is definitely the candidate headed in the right direction with the right at this time," the pollster noted.

The margin of error for the whole survey is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.


http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/donald-trump-leads-republicans-primary/2015/11/19/id/702856/#ixzz3rz4zOdYm

Quote from: redbeard on November 19, 2015, 03:47:51 PM
The PPP poll is left leaning but I figured I'd post it because it looks like , by this poll, Cruz is the one showing real momentum! Cruz is 3rd in this poll and they have really started to notice him, Or rather admit he's there! Liknd of fascinating what they are saying!

Exactly my point for posting the metrics, Cruz is steadily moving up, despite the efforts of the media in ignoring him.

Interesting. I've always had the feeling that the media is pushing Trump (or Bush) because those are the candidates that the voters dislike almost as much as Clinton. Also in a way he's the most vulnerable of her possible opponents. Look at it this way. Trump - as he often tells us - is a billionaire businessman. Do you really believe, once in office he's going to piss off the Demorats - who are strong in the bureaucracy - or all those other businessmen he (and his kids) will have to deal with? Think about OSHA at his properties every day while he's running and/or constant audits of his finances. He's been rich all his life, what would the prospect of being reduced to poverty look like?

A new poll has Cruz tied for second place with Carson.... both at 18%.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/290464180/NBC-SM-Nov-Rep-Primary-Toplines-Methodology-ONLY-11-20-15

Cruz is gaining support in Iowa at Carson's expense.

Terrorism and Foreign Policy goofs are costing Carson.

Per Politico

Quote from: kroz on November 21, 2015, 11:02:14 AM
Cruz is gaining support in Iowa at Carson's expense.

Terrorism and Foreign Policy goofs are costing Carson.

Per Politico

Cruz ground work is paying off, he has been working Iowa for over a year, if memory serves me correctly.

Quote from: Solar on November 19, 2015, 12:36:27 PM
Exactly why I chose it, I see Colorado as reflective of most of the US.
What I managed to glean from all of this and other polls, is Trump's negatives hold him back, as well as Carson's which only bares well for Cruz whom has yet to slide back in any polling, signifying his base is not only solid, but growing steadily.

Rubio on the other hand? Well no matter how they spin it, it comes down to a battle between him and Cruz in the end, and we know how that's going top play out.
Rubio at best, after Trump and Carson bow out, will have, if he's lucky 20%  support, while Cruz carries the lions share.

Aside from my God in heaven I hope not!

Solar, why do you think that?