New Hampshire GOP Primary Prediction Thread

[Cali Contrarian]

My best guess, at this point:

Trump.......26
Kasich.......18
Bush.........16
Rubio........13
Cruz.........12
Christie......8
Fiorina.......5
Carson.......2

Of course I'll be way off on at least part of it. The debate mucked everything up, at least from a prognosticating standpoint.

If you don't like the picks, keep in mind that it's prognostication, not a value judgment. Well, in a sense it is a value judgment, but a value judgment about the New Hampshire voting public, not me. Remember, these are the people that almost always pick the worst candidates in the field, change their minds at the last minute for no good reason, and who gave Hillary Clinton about a 20 point boost over two days in 2012.....because she cried.

I had a real hard time placing Rubio, but I thought Kasich would end up beating him out even before the debate. I still think the whole business about Rubio getting his butt kicked by Christie is horseshit, but I have to try to account for how other people think. Again, it is New Hampshire. Past history suggests they will chase after shiny lures.

Cruz is down where he is because in primaries, each state tend to play to its reputation. We saw it in Iowa again this year, and New Hampshire is very definitely not a Ted Cruz kind of state. Don't worry about it -- it doesn't matter if he's second or sixth, as long as he beats Rubio. I have him not beating Rubio, but that's the hardest call of all to make. Who knows how far Rubio drops. I only nicked him as much as I felt I had to.

I'm not giving Christie all that much out of Rubio's losses. Most of it goes to Kasich and Bush, and Christie already lost the lion's share of the clown vote to Trump.

[Solar]

That looks like you copied a poll.
Cruz will take oit followed by Trump and Rubio tied for 2nd, the rest a distant 3rd.
I won't speculate on numbers. Cruz winning and Trump bailing are all that matters.

[Cali Contrarian]

That looks like you copied a poll.

Even if that were true, which it isn't, I'd have to copy the right one, wouldn't I?

[Skeptic]

I think trump will manage to pull out a win. I'm hoping Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will fight for second and third place. If Jeb Bush manages to land second or third place that would be a huge disaster. Jeb Bush does not have a prayer against Hillary Clinton. He needs to be dropping out, not picking up momentum.

[taxed]

I think trump will manage to pull out a win. I'm hoping Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will fight for second and third place. If Jeb Bush manages to land second or third place that would be a huge disaster. Jeb Bush does not have a prayer against Hillary Clinton

Trump, with no ground game, polls dropping, and the highest unfavorability of any candidate EVER is going to win?

Great analysis as usual.

[Skeptic]

Trump, with no ground game, polls dropping, and the highest unfavorability of any candidate EVER is going to win?

Great analysis as usual.

In any southern state I would say no. However, we are talking about New Hampshire here

[taxed]

In any southern state I would say no. However, we are talking about New Hampshire here

The same state that had Ron Paul in second in 2012?

[Skeptic]

The same state that had Ron Paul in second in 2012?

As President Obama was unoposed all the liberal kids went to vote for Ron Paul because he was the pro-marijuana candidate in their minds. Remember, NH Democrats can vote in GOP primaries.

[Cali Contrarian]

I think trump will manage to pull out a win. I'm hoping Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will fight for second and third place. If Jeb Bush manages to land second or third place that would be a huge disaster. Jeb Bush does not have a prayer against Hillary Clinton. He needs to be dropping out, not picking up momentum.

The way I see it, with a Jeb Bush nomination, there are two potential problems in the general:

1. He might lose.
2. He might win.

[Skeptic]

The way I see it, with a Jeb Bush nomination, there are two potential problems in the general:

1. He might lose.
2. He might win.

Good point, either one would be undesirable.

[Skeptic]

Two polls came out this afternoon. In one, Trump wins, Rubio is securely in second, and Cruz and Kasich are tied for third. In the second poll, Trump is winning, and Rubio and Cruz are tied for second.

I don't believe either poll as far as who is in second, third, fourth, etc., except for the fact that Trump is so high up in all the polls that even if he underperformed by 8 points, he would still win. Trump would have to underperform all these polls by at least 10 points. That's a tall order.

[Cali Contrarian]

Two polls came out this afternoon. In one, Trump wins, Rubio is securely in second, and Cruz and Kasich are tied for third. In the second poll, Trump is winning, and Rubio and Cruz are tied for second.

I don't believe either poll as far as who is in second, third, fourth, etc., except for the fact that Trump is so high up in all the polls that even if he underperformed by 8 points, he would still win. Trump would have to underperform all these polls by at least 10 points. That's a tall order.

It does seem like a tall order, but just the same, Nate Silver has him down to 69%. Of course, Silver does like to hedge.

Speaking of hedging, I'm going to make a couple of tweaks, because I was being too cautious.....

Trump.......25
Kasich.......20
Bush.........15
Rubio........13
Cruz.........13
Christie......7
Fiorina.......5
Carson.......2

The point is, I'm clearly picking Kasich for #2 (best NH fit) so I might as well commit to it. No poll has him 20%. If he's second and 18%+, I'd consider that a good call.

I also move Cruz up by one point because the only reason I had him at 12 was to separate him from Rubio. I'll go with 13% each, but still calling Rubio to edge him for 4th.

[Billy's bayonet]

The only poll I beleive is the one after the final tally on election night

[Cali Contrarian]

The only poll I beleive is the one after the final tally on election night

There are instances when even that one isn't to be believed.

[Bowhntr]

So if Cruz DOES win...can he be stopped or does he go on to run the table?  I'm thinking the top two will be Cruz and Trump but I'm kinda scared to venture a guess as to which way it falls right now.  Trump is falling and Cruz is surging again.  A ten point swing in both ways flips the dynamic.  Before the debate I would have said Trump wins and Cruz could finish as low as 4th with Christie in the top 4.  After Saturday I can see a Cruz win with Trump as low as 4th.  However, tomorrow night is what will tell the tale.