Schweikart has been breaking down voting data as of late.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1052710045375295488.html
He has a bunch of tweets showing a red wave trend. Here's an article he posted on Big League Politics:
https://bigleaguepolitics.com/republicans-surging-in-key-metrics-in-house-and-senate/
QuoteA number of anecdotes and a patchwork of early/absentee voting numbers is suggesting that even some of us who predicted a hold in the House and a big gain in the Senate may still be underestimating the extent of the Republican wave that may be coming.
In Arizona, deepest of blue Tucson, according to early voting data, is seeing many of its blue precincts eroded. (Tucson is Boston in the desert). This does not bode well for Kyrsten Sinema, and while the congressional seat probably won't go red, the data suggests the races there may be closer than anyone expected. This is especially true since Governor Doug Ducey is walloping Democrat David Garcia by almost 20 points. Tides tend to carry all vessels the same way, and if Ducey is up that much (and Sinema is apparently collapsing that much), some otherwise "safe" Democrat seats may be in play.
This is supported by absentee requests (though not returns so far, of which there have been few) in Iowa. In 2016, Iowa was key to my analysis of Trump's performance, and more important, to Hillary Clinton's gigantic underperformance. The typical pattern in Iowa is that Democrats dominate absentee balloting, Republicans do better on election day. Except that in 2016, Democrat absentees were off massively (and pretty much ended that way).
Today? We are seeing the same thing: Democrats are underperforming their 2016 levels, but Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2016 pace. Combined, the Democrat shortfall and Republican gains suggest that Congressman Rod Blum, considered a goner and key to any Democrat takeover of the House, suddenly is in a tight race. Moreover, it suggests that IA1 is close, and that it may offer the Republicans a flip opportunity.
Lets hope that correct.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 04:35:50 AM
Lets hope that correct.
Since 2010, every Midterm has been a Red Wave. Are you still under the illusion that some how it died and the leftist message of hatred for our nation suddenly resonates with the majority?
I have to assume you live in a liberal bastion of depression, like say, NY or Baltimore?
Understanding Rush is an entertainer. However, yesterday he made a bold statement that the GOP would retain the house majority and add seats in the senate in his interview with Hannity.
Quote from: Solar on October 19, 2018, 07:33:30 AM
Since 2010, every Midterm has been a Red Wave. Are you still under the illusion that some how it died and the leftist message of hatred for our nation suddenly resonates with the majority?
I have to assume you live in a liberal bastion of depression, like say, NY or Baltimore?
I live in VA where its unlikely a rep will never a statewide election again. You might remember that in 2010 and 2014 Obama was president and history says the opposition gains seats in congress. 2018 is the opposite and history alone says reps will lose seats. We can only hope reps show up in NOV.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 12:42:22 PM
I live in VA where its unlikely a rep will never a statewide election again. You might remember that in 2010 and 2014 Obama was president and history says the opposition gains seats in congress. 2018 is the opposite and history alone says reps will lose seats. We can only hope reps show up in NOV.
You can't compare history to the current political climate. The Dims also lost over 1000 Legislative seats under Obozo, and they have yet to recoup even a fraction of those losses.
Then there's the issue of the disenfranchised voter over the decades, where half the electorate stayed home out of frustration over leftist gridlock in a two party leftist system, neither party representing the values of the voter, so apathy set in.
Point is, that source of votes is about to come to life, and 90% of them will be on the Right. Not only will we retain Congress, but we'll be picking up seats, the Dims will be humiliated in the coming Midterms, so much so, there will probably be a move to start an entirely new party, abandoning the DNC.
Don't doubt me on this, I've been studding politics as well as human nature/natural law for decades, and I've no doubt that the Right has made a comeback.
Why do you think there's an exorbitant amount of RINO retiring this election and in 2020? They've seen the internal polling, they know they're about to be kicked out of office, and just like the Dim party and its losing streak, the left is on the run.
When I 'm Right again, as usual, will you finally admit you've been wrong every time with your forecasts?
Quote from: Solar on October 19, 2018, 01:31:44 PM
You can't compare history to the current political climate. The Dims also lost over 1000 Legislative seats under Obozo, and they have yet to recoup even a fraction of those losses.
Then there's the issue of the disenfranchised voter over the decades, where half the electorate stayed home out of frustration over leftist gridlock in a two party leftist system, neither party representing the values of the voter, so apathy set in.
Point is, that source of votes is about to come to life, and 90% of them will be on the Right. Not only will we retain Congress, but we'll be picking up seats, the Dims will be humiliated in the coming Midterms, so much so, there will probably be a move to start an entirely new party, abandoning the DNC.
Don't doubt me on this, I've been studding politics as well as human nature/natural law for decades, and I've no doubt that the Right has made a comeback.
Why do you think there's an exorbitant amount of RINO retiring this election and in 2020? They've seen the internal polling, they know they're about to be kicked out of office, and just like the Dim party and its losing streak, the left is on the run.
When I 'm Right again, as usual, will you finally admit you've been wrong every time with your forecasts?
Trump is filling up stadiums to overflowing
during the midterms! The base is fired up.
There is no dim who can fill up a stadium. Hells bells, beto was going to be a part of that blue wave for the senate, polls said so! he is now 7 to 9 points behind and that is being kind, reality, he's out of there. :lol:
Quote from: s3779m on October 19, 2018, 03:40:32 PM
Trump is filling up stadiums to overflowing during the midterms! The base is fired up. There is no dim who can fill up a stadium. Hells bells, beto was going to be a part of that blue wave for the senate, polls said so! he is now 7 to 9 points behind and that is being kind, reality, he's out of there. :lol:
:lol:
Yep, I'd double those numbers for Cruz, and after the votes are counted, it'll probably be closer to a 19 point spread.
Quote from: Solar on October 19, 2018, 01:31:44 PM
You can't compare history to the current political climate. The Dims also lost over 1000 Legislative seats under Obozo, and they have yet to recoup even a fraction of those losses.
Then there's the issue of the disenfranchised voter over the decades, where half the electorate stayed home out of frustration over leftist gridlock in a two party leftist system, neither party representing the values of the voter, so apathy set in.
Point is, that source of votes is about to come to life, and 90% of them will be on the Right. Not only will we retain Congress, but we'll be picking up seats, the Dims will be humiliated in the coming Midterms, so much so, there will probably be a move to start an entirely new party, abandoning the DNC.
Don't doubt me on this, I've been studding politics as well as human nature/natural law for decades, and I've no doubt that the Right has made a comeback.
Why do you think there's an exorbitant amount of RINO retiring this election and in 2020? They've seen the internal polling, they know they're about to be kicked out of office, and just like the Dim party and its losing streak, the left is on the run.
When I 'm Right again, as usual, will you finally admit you've been wrong every time with your forecasts?
And i assume you will admit you were wrong as well come Nov. I would love to be wrong but i doubt that.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 06:50:18 PM
And i assume you will admit you were wrong as well come Nov. I would love to be wrong but i doubt that.
Look back at all my predictions, the only one I've been wrong on was Cruz getting elected, but I was still right because I said it would be a Conservative getting elected in 2016, back before Cruz threw his hat in the ring.
Before that, I've been right about every midterm since, so what makes you think you can put your predictions up against mine?
I eat and breathe this shit and don't make these predictions based on emotion and fear, as you do.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 06:50:18 PM
And i assume you will admit you were wrong as well come Nov. I would love to be wrong but i doubt that.
2010 we took the House.
2014 we took the Senate.
2016 we took the Presidency.
2018 we took the Supreme Court.
Yeah, we have no momentum.
Quote from: taxed on October 19, 2018, 07:34:27 PM
2010 we took the House.
2014 we took the Senate.
2016 we took the Presidency.
2018 we took the Supreme Court.
Yeah, we have no momentum.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
I never thought we could win so much in such a short amount of time, and it just keeps growing every week.
The DemonRats, with their BS polls and collaborator media; are simply trying to depress GOP turnout. They actually believe the public wants to see Antifa riots and migrant mobs on their TV screens, every night.
Quote from: mdgiles on October 20, 2018, 06:19:49 AM
The DemonRats, with their BS polls and collaborator media; are simply trying to depress GOP turnout. They actually believe the public wants to see Antifa riots and migrant mobs on their TV screens, every night.
Bingo!!!
Liberals love it when everyone is as miserable as them.
Quote from: taxed on October 19, 2018, 07:34:27 PM
2010 we took the House.
2014 we took the Senate.
2016 we took the Presidency.
2018 we took the Supreme Court.
Yeah, we have no momentum.
I can answer that in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and 2008. Lost big in 2010.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 20, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
I can answer that in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and 2008. Lost big in 2010.
Bush lost it in 2006... Dems didn't win. 2008 was a swing against Bush.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 20, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
I can answer that in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and 2008. Lost big in 2010.
(https://conservativepoliticalforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F24.media.tumblr.com%2F36d13ff47d03ec974a95c955ed186ed0%2Ftumblr_mfokg3G5TE1qh0jufo10_r1_250.gif&hash=0003f89f5c6d3734fe8f6ad2eb47a7b2cc626560)
Quote from: ldub23 on October 20, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
I can answer that in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and 2008. Lost big in 2010.
And we've been kicking ass for the last 8 years with zero subsidence Your point?
Quote from: Solar on October 20, 2018, 07:39:44 PM
And we've been kicking ass for the last 8 years with zero subsidence Your point?
My point is this is going to be a disaster for reps, similar to 2006. CNN has the socialist up 12 in FLA. Is it right? If it is then its a total disaster everywhere for reps. I dont know if the senate needs 2/3rds to convict Trump on impeachment but the house will impeach him and there are alot of rep senators who want to be rid of him. I still am thinking reps lose 40-50 house seats and lose senate seats in AZ and NV.
One upset special i have is Scott Taylor losing in my district for the House. He is up 7 according to a CNU poll but the dems are saturating the airwaves with attacks on him with very few ads for Taylor.. The only good thing about dems winning congress is there MIGHT BE a backlash against them in 2020 if its seen as too partisan. However, if 15-20 rep senators join the dems to convict then my guess is a hell of a lot of Trump voters will kiss the rep party goodbye for good in 2020. Lets say the rep party puts up a Rino like Rubio then by the time 2020 is done dems could have 275 house seats and 60+ senate seats. Rep party had no chance to win the presidency in 2016 except for Trump and there are alot of reps who want him gone at any price.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 22, 2018, 12:21:56 PM
My point is this is going to be a disaster for reps, similar to 2006. CNN has the socialist up 12 in FLA. Is it right? If it is then its a total disaster everywhere for reps. I dont know if the senate needs 2/3rds to convict Trump on impeachment but the house will impeach him and there are alot of rep senators who want to be rid of him. I still am thinking reps lose 40-50 house seats and lose senate seats in AZ and NV.
I see your problem, you rely on the left for your stats.
Did it ever occur to you to look at other polling?
Still, polls mean nothing because, almost 95% of the time are paid for by leftists.
Note the Yuuuuge disparity in numbers in the polls on the link. I can't stress enough, the left is a disaster everyone is avoiding.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor
Thats the only poll from Rasmussen.
I havent seen any attempt on reps part to make the election a national referendum on the economy.
Quote from: ldub23 on October 22, 2018, 12:58:33 PM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor
Thats the only poll from Rasmussen.
I havent seen any attempt on reps part to make the election a national referendum on the economy.
I have no idea why you put so much gravity behind polls, when all the polls showed Clinton winning in a landslide.
From your link.
"Forty-eight percent (48%) of Florida voters approve of the job Scott is doing; 47% disapprove. This includes 30% who Strongly Approve and 32% who Strongly Disapprove."
Point being, this is a midterm election, an election when the left sits out elections compared to that of the Right.
Get it through your head, the left is yesterdays used TP, they are essentially dead as a force in politics. I've said this many times, the lSM and the Establishment RINO keep them alive.
The RINO need a tool to scare the base into supporting their candidates, and yes, that worked for decades, but not any longer, now the base is pissed and supporting Trump's choices, which happen to be people that support Trump's Conservative agenda.
I don't know if you have a blind spot when it comes to deciphering the numbers, but they all point to a HUGE Red Wave.
I put no credence in that CNN poll. Both the senate race and the governors numbers should be closer to each other since the same people will be voting for each in this state wide election. The thing that worries me the most is the area wiped out by the storm, the Panhandle, is a strong republican area and I have no idea how that is going to effect this very close race! My gut feeling as a long term resident of Florida we will win both the senate seat and the governor's race.
Early voting started today! I will be at the polls tomorrow.
Just an anecdotal observation about some early voting.
Mrs. Sup and I went to vote this morning. The voting line was steady and busy. So far it has been reported that Henderson County has the most active early voting in the state of NC. It is a county of about 150K and is heavily republican. This a positive sign at least here in NC.