Rubio is gone.....
I hate to be the one to tell you this, since you've been so patient for the month-and-a-half that people have already been voting and because you, like any sane person, have only a limited capacity to care that much about the daily intricacies of what's happening in American politics. But tell you I must, because it is important that you be Informed and that you not be Deluded into thinking that this thing is almost Done.
It is very likely -- very likely -- that neither Donald Trump nor Ted Cruz will secure half of the delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination until the very last day of the election. And this is the part that I'm reticent to share: That last day is in June.
June 7, specifically -- just less than a year after Trump (then averaging about 4 percent in the polls) rode down the goldish escalator at Trump Tower and started complaining about Mexico. On June 7, more than 350 days after that announcement, voters will go to the polls in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota -- but people will only be paying attention to the fifth state that's voting, California. In California, 172 delegates will be at stake, nearly 14 percent of what a candidate needs in order to gain a majority. And just to make things dramatic, nearly all of those 172 delegates will be distributed to the winners of each of the state's 53 congressional districts.
Meaning that when polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern on June 7, we will likely be tracking 53 individual elections in order to figure out if Trump or Cruz hit the 1,237 mark. So that's something to look forward to.
Understandably, this is hard to game out. There hasn't been much polling in California, and it's extremely expensive to take the temperature of voters in each of those areas. But, thanks to recent polling from SmithJohnson Research in Sacramento, we can at least get a feel for the lay of the land.
SmithJohnson surveyed Californians twice earlier this month, curious about how Trump was perceived in the state. The answer is: Not well, with Trump's net favorability at -42. Among Republicans he did a bit better, at +10. Among Hispanics? Negative-63. Which is low.
(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/files/2016/03/California_Map.jpg&w=1484)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/17/the-republican-race-may-come-down-to-california-heres-how-complicated-that-would-be/
Quote from: Solar on March 20, 2016, 12:20:10 PM
Rubio is gone.....
I hate to be the one to tell you this, since you've been so patient for the month-and-a-half that people have already been voting and because you, like any sane person, have only a limited capacity to care that much about the daily intricacies of what's happening in American politics. But tell you I must, because it is important that you be Informed and that you not be Deluded into thinking that this thing is almost Done.
It is very likely -- very likely -- that neither Donald Trump nor Ted Cruz will secure half of the delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination until the very last day of the election. And this is the part that I'm reticent to share: That last day is in June.
June 7, specifically -- just less than a year after Trump (then averaging about 4 percent in the polls) rode down the goldish escalator at Trump Tower and started complaining about Mexico. On June 7, more than 350 days after that announcement, voters will go to the polls in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota -- but people will only be paying attention to the fifth state that's voting, California. In California, 172 delegates will be at stake, nearly 14 percent of what a candidate needs in order to gain a majority. And just to make things dramatic, nearly all of those 172 delegates will be distributed to the winners of each of the state's 53 congressional districts.
Meaning that when polls close at 11 p.m. Eastern on June 7, we will likely be tracking 53 individual elections in order to figure out if Trump or Cruz hit the 1,237 mark. So that's something to look forward to.
Understandably, this is hard to game out. There hasn't been much polling in California, and it's extremely expensive to take the temperature of voters in each of those areas. But, thanks to recent polling from SmithJohnson Research in Sacramento, we can at least get a feel for the lay of the land.
SmithJohnson surveyed Californians twice earlier this month, curious about how Trump was perceived in the state. The answer is: Not well, with Trump's net favorability at -42. Among Republicans he did a bit better, at +10. Among Hispanics? Negative-63. Which is low.
(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/files/2016/03/California_Map.jpg&w=1484)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/17/the-republican-race-may-come-down-to-california-heres-how-complicated-that-would-be/
Interesting in where do those Rubio supporters go? I notice even the pubs in the Bay area are libs.
Quote from: supsalemgr on March 20, 2016, 12:26:46 PM
Interesting in where do those Rubio supporters go? I notice even the pubs in the Bay area are libs.
I get the impression they split between Ksux and Cruz, with few going to Trump. :thumbsup:
http://theagency.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Survey_March_10_CA_Poll.pdf
Quote from: Solar on March 20, 2016, 12:31:46 PM
I get the impression they split between Ksux and Cruz, with few going to Trump. :thumbsup:
http://theagency.us/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Survey_March_10_CA_Poll.pdf
DV Mainly Rep Switch voter Mainly Dem
Heard/fav 48.0% 27.9% 7.1%
Heard/unfav 38.1% 57.7% 87.9%
Heard/no opinion 12.9% 13.0% 4.7%
Not heard 1.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Index 100 71 20
Marginal Percentage 27.0% 27.8% 45.3%
Utah Republican Presidential Caucus Y2 Analytics Cruz 53, Kasich 29, Trump 11, Rubio Cruz +24
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has zoomed to a commanding lead in Utah's GOP caucuses, according to a new poll released Saturday. It also gave a glimpse into how frustrated the state's Republicans are with Donald Trump's candidacy.
The Y2 Analytics survey shows Cruz with 53 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goes and if that matches Tuesday's caucus vote, he'd win all of the state's 40 GOP delegates.
Coming in second is Ohio Gov. John Kasich with 29 percent, while Trump, the national front-runner, was a distant third at 11 percent.
The Y2 Analytics poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday and included 500 respondents, capturing some of the reaction from public events held by all three of the Republican candidates. Cruz held three public events in Utah on Saturday with Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, commentator Glenn Beck and former presidential candidate Carly Fiorina. Kasich and Trump held events on Friday.
http://www.sltrib.com/news/3683983-155/new-poll-shows-ted-cruz-with
Trump holding double digit lead in all AZ polls. An upset appears difficult.
Quote from: redsun on March 21, 2016, 01:51:06 PM
Trump holding double digit lead in all AZ polls. An upset appears difficult.
Don't remember where I saw it but, I read the other day that the Cruz camp is already assuming Trump will win AZ.
That may explain why he has been in Utah most of the last week and hardly in AZ. Cruz is probably trying to focus on securing 50% of the Utah vote to get all 40 delegates.
My bet is that AZ will turn out to be another Louisianna; Cruz will win day of voting in AZ but will lose because Trump will have an outstanding lead already built up from early voting that Cruz won't be able to over come.
Quote from: redsun on March 21, 2016, 01:51:06 PM
Trump holding double digit lead in all AZ polls. An upset appears difficult.
Well, they kept the biggest RINO in office for 30 years after all, so it really doesn't really say much for the state as a whole.
I think Cruz is the victim of guilt by association. This is an anti establishment election. No one has actually gone against the establishment like Cruz has but he is a congressman and thus considered by many to be part of the establishment.
Quote from: The Boo Man... on March 21, 2016, 06:58:37 PM
I think Cruz is the victim of guilt by association. This is an anti establishment election. No one has actually gone against the establishment like Cruz has but he is a congressman and thus considered by many to be part of the establishment.
How can ANY pol become a committee chairman where true power lies, without seniority?
The early voting in AZ looks to have went to Trump but Cruz said today they are hoping for a surge in Caucus day voting to occur... I wont give up on him.. Arizona is going to be a hard sell, but I remain confident in the people to see the stark difference between the candidates. One who is all talk and bravado and one that has a solid back ground in Conservatism.
Quote from: AmericanMom on March 21, 2016, 08:46:58 PM
The early voting in AZ looks to have went to Trump but Cruz said today they are hoping for a surge in Caucus day voting to occur... I wont give up on him.. Arizona is going to be a hard sell, but I remain confident in the people to see the stark difference between the candidates. One who is all talk and bravado and one that has a solid back ground in Conservatism.
Neither he nor Trump will get the necessary votes, which leaves the GOP'e to pull their dirty tricks.
I'll say it now, be prepared for a
"Write in Cruz campaign".
Rules have it, the GOP can pick any candidate they want, even the socialist Ksux as the party nominee..
Quote from: Solar on March 26, 2016, 05:40:15 PM
Neither he nor Trump will get the necessary votes, which leaves the GOP'e to pull their dirty tricks.
I'll say it now, be prepared for a "Write in Cruz campaign".
Rules have it, the GOP can pick any candidate they want, even the socialist Ksux as the party nominee..
Well, as we know that will be the end of the Wigs V2.0 if they do...
I would think they would poll and focus group the shit out of any scenarios they have drawn up.....I hope they aren't that dumb to think that anyone other than Cruz could possibly save them from this Liberal vice they've created.
...otherwise the Wigs v2.0 as well as USA v1.0 is down for the count
The United States of America needs the help of California. We need Cali to come together and vote for Ted Cruz. That plan and simple.
How California Primary Rules Could Help Ted Cruz
For the first time in a very long time, the very late June primary in California will actually matter.
Moreover, thanks to the history of the California Republican Party, only Republicans can participate in the primary process in the nation's largest state, and California has a winner-take-all-by-district system that may allow Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97%
to mount a comeback against frontrunner Donald Trump.
In 1998, Michael Schroeder was Chair of the State GOP. Schroeder was instrumental, as a member of the RNC's Rules Committee, in securing language that was adopted into the official Rules of the party:
Any state Republican Party may set the date for any primary, caucus, convention or meeting for the purpose of voting for a presidential candidate and/or electing, selecting, allocating or binding delegates to the national convention. ... To the extent a state Republican Party's rules are in conflict with its state laws with respect to this rule, the provisions of this rule and the state Republican Party's rules shall control.
Schroeder also successfully led an effort to amend the California GOP rules to make it clear that only Republicans can vote in the primary.
Today Schroeder is serving as the volunteer Political Director of the Ted Cruz campaign in California, where it could turn out that his handiwork of nearly 18 years ago may mean everything.
READ MORE....
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/28/will-cruz-benefit-from-changes-in-ca-gop-rules/
Quote from: The Boo Man... on March 21, 2016, 06:58:37 PM
I think Cruz is the victim of guilt by association. This is an anti establishment election. No one has actually gone against the establishment like Cruz has but he is a congressman and thus considered by many to be part of the establishment.
Absolutely correct. That is, to the LIV that only watches FOX or one of the alphabet networks.
QuoteCalifornia has a winner-take-all-by-district
Is this something new? I was under the impression that winner-take-all meant the whole state.... :confused:
Quote from: Dori on April 02, 2016, 08:06:35 AM
Is this something new? I was under the impression that winner-take-all meant the whole state.... :confused:
From what I can find, it quietly changed in 2008. :sneaky:
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/28/will-cruz-benefit-from-changes-in-ca-gop-rules/
Most recent CA poll now has Cruz within 1 point of Trump. This was an LA Times poll between 3/16 and 3/23. I wouldn't doubt if Cruz is actually ahead by now. This is nice to see...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html
Quote from: Fishman on April 03, 2016, 09:14:04 AM
Most recent CA poll now has Cruz within 1 point of Trump. This was an LA Times poll between 3/16 and 3/23. I wouldn't doubt if Cruz is actually ahead by now. This is nice to see...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html
From the reputation CA has, as a Californian, this surprises me even. :smile:
Quote from: Fishman on April 03, 2016, 09:14:04 AM
Most recent CA poll now has Cruz within 1 point of Trump. This was an LA Times poll between 3/16 and 3/23. I wouldn't doubt if Cruz is actually ahead by now. This is nice to see...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html
Living here in Ca, I'm seeing real world reports around 20% lead over Trump.
By the time Ca rolls around, Trump will be synonomous with deciet and Leftist.
Quote from: Solar on April 03, 2016, 09:23:16 AM
Living here in Ca, I'm seeing real world reports around 20% lead over Trump.
By the time Ca rolls around, Trump will be synonomous with deciet and Leftist.
Restart....
Indications are Trump continues to slip in California, Cruz is stealthily gaining.
Trump has been MIA, in New York desperately trying to hold on 50% - which if he doesn't do REALLY REALLY well, would be a disaster.
California is in play...!
Quote from: Hoofer on April 12, 2016, 03:52:49 PM
Restart....
Indications are Trump continues to slip in California, Cruz is stealthily gaining.
Trump has been MIA, in New York desperately trying to hold on 50% - which if he doesn't do REALLY REALLY well, would be a disaster.
California is in play...!
Yep, Cruz has been out here campaigning already, has had a team out here for nearly a year.
Yes, Ca will put his worthless lib ass in the ground. :thumbsup:
Hey Hoofer, if you ever get the time, write just a few paragraphs on how and when you broke the bonds of liberalism, and what/when was the magic moment.
Keep it short and make it a stand alone thread, I'd like to hear how others converted.
There might be a clue in there as to how we can flip these lib Trumpsters.....
CRUZ ANNOUNCES BACKING OF 50 CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN ELECTED OFFICIALS
IRVINE, CA – With momentum surging from recent victories across four states, today the Cruz for President campaign announced the endorsement of 50 current and former California Republican state and local elected officials.
"I'm honored to receive the support of Republican leaders who are working hard to put conservative ideas into action in California," said Cruz. "Conservatives are continuing to unite behind our campaign to win the Republican nomination and defeat Hillary Clinton in November, and the people of California will be critical to our success."
The following current and former state and local government officials have endorsed Ted Cruz for President:
Current and Former State Officials:
https://www.tedcruz.org/news/cruz-announces-backing-50-california-republican-elected-officials/
Quote from: Solar on April 13, 2016, 05:15:52 AM
CRUZ ANNOUNCES BACKING OF 50 CALIFORNIA REPUBLICAN ELECTED OFFICIALS
IRVINE, CA – With momentum surging from recent victories across four states, today the Cruz for President campaign announced the endorsement of 50 current and former California Republican state and local elected officials.
"I'm honored to receive the support of Republican leaders who are working hard to put conservative ideas into action in California," said Cruz. "Conservatives are continuing to unite behind our campaign to win the Republican nomination and defeat Hillary Clinton in November, and the people of California will be critical to our success."
The following current and former state and local government officials have endorsed Ted Cruz for President:
Current and Former State Officials:
https://www.tedcruz.org/news/cruz-announces-backing-50-california-republican-elected-officials/
Is CA a closed primary Solar?
Quote from: supsalemgr on April 13, 2016, 05:31:13 AM
Is CA a closed primary Solar?
Yes and no, much like NY is now, the GOP changed the rules in favor of Bush.
But I don't believe it will matter anyway, Cruz will take this state in a landslide because Ca is full of Conservatives, not a bunch of moderates, we're literally split with Marxists and moderates on the left and conservatives on the Right.
No, we won't be voting for the Chump...
Quote from: Solar on April 13, 2016, 05:35:57 AM
Yes and no, much like NY is now, the GOP changed the rules in favor of Bush.
But I don't believe it will matter anyway, Cruz will take this state in a landslide because Ca is full of Conservatives, not a bunch of moderates, we're literally split with Marxists and moderates on the left and conservatives on the Right.
No, we won't be voting for the Chump...
I agree. With 53 districts Cruz is going to win a lot of delegates.