Prediction Thread

Started by Solar, August 30, 2011, 06:29:19 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

arpad

Quote from: Solar on October 28, 2011, 07:18:07 PM
Consider the liberal mind (if you want to call it one that is).
They are always trying to make change, even if its bad, so even if we had a perfect world, they'd fuck it up out of boredom.
What makes you think lefties have to wait for the world to become perfect before they'll try to fuck it up out of sheer boredom?

Remember, the world revolves around lefties, as far as lefties are concerned. So the only difference between real issues that should be addressed and phony issues promoted out of sheer boredom is in how they see themselves.

The issue's always secondary and the roll of the lefty is always primary.

Wanna be a Hero for the Planet? Wanna be a soldier in the fight for civil rights in 2011? Are you terribly upset that there's hunger in the wealthiest nation on Earth?

All phony issues in which the lefty's role as pocket change Superman is the driving force.

Dan

Because the "prosperity" of the last 30+ years where so many people have been uplifted is a mirage based on a series of easy money bubbles that are utterly unsustainable. In the US we have the securitization bubble which led to the housing bubble which is prompting deficit spending paid for by the fed who are creqting their very own easy money bubble by diluting the dollar. And it will all sorta work until the value of the dollar drops and that bubble pops too. Bottom line is that current levels of US consumption are not sustainable given our level of productivity.

And Europe's easy money bubble was soverign debt. They supported unsustainable levels of consumption with countless govt jobs at unrealistic pay and benefits. But now that bubble is popping. Bottom line is that European stqndqrds of living are going to drop alomg with their consumption levels.

Now lets move on to China. Their rasy mojey bubble is debt too. Federal, state and local debt is 80% of Chinese GDP. Not to mention the massive debt on the balance sheets if Chinese banks that should have been written off under any sane accounting standards. Bottom line, much of the Chinese growth we have seen over the past decade is a slight of hand. It's neither real nor sustainable. Bottom line is that the Chinese government has gotten themselves into hock over make work projects with questionable economic value because they hqve to create so many new jobs every year in order to avoid social unrest. But it is not sustainable.

Now lets move on to the African, South American and Australian economies that are largely built around exporting raw materials to the US, Europe and China. What do you think is gonna happen when all of the induatrialized economies begin to contract?

The point of all of this is to say that future global economic growth is far from certain and in my opinion highly unlikely.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Solar

Quote from: arpad on October 29, 2011, 04:06:58 AM
What makes you think lefties have to wait for the world to become perfect before they'll try to fuck it up out of sheer boredom?

Remember, the world revolves around lefties, as far as lefties are concerned. So the only difference between real issues that should be addressed and phony issues promoted out of sheer boredom is in how they see themselves.

The issue's always secondary and the roll of the lefty is always primary.

Wanna be a Hero for the Planet? Wanna be a soldier in the fight for civil rights in 2011? Are you terribly upset that there's hunger in the wealthiest nation on Earth?

All phony issues in which the lefty's role as pocket change Superman is the driving force.
Reminds me very much of that little lib side show that used to be on, "Fashion Police".
Two wannabe rich libs that felt they had an obligation to correct fashion fauxpaus where ever they could find it, that is until they went to a farm and became overwhelmed.

Maybe we just need to overwhelm these dolts?
Official Trump Cult Member

#WWG1WGA

Q PATRIOT!!!

Solar

Quote from: Dan on October 29, 2011, 04:41:28 AM
Because the "prosperity" of the last 30+ years where so many people have been uplifted is a mirage based on a series of easy money bubbles that are utterly unsustainable. In the US we have the securitization bubble which led to the housing bubble which is prompting deficit spending paid for by the fed who are creqting their very own easy money bubble by diluting the dollar. And it will all sorta work until the value of the dollar drops and that bubble pops too. Bottom line is that current levels of US consumption are not sustainable given our level of productivity.

And Europe's easy money bubble was soverign debt. They supported unsustainable levels of consumption with countless govt jobs at unrealistic pay and benefits. But now that bubble is popping. Bottom line is that European stqndqrds of living are going to drop alomg with their consumption levels.

Now lets move on to China. Their rasy mojey bubble is debt too. Federal, state and local debt is 80% of Chinese GDP. Not to mention the massive debt on the balance sheets if Chinese banks that should have been written off under any sane accounting standards. Bottom line, much of the Chinese growth we have seen over the past decade is a slight of hand. It's neither real nor sustainable. Bottom line is that the Chinese government has gotten themselves into hock over make work projects with questionable economic value because they hqve to create so many new jobs every year in order to avoid social unrest. But it is not sustainable.

Now lets move on to the African, South American and Australian economies that are largely built around exporting raw materials to the US, Europe and China. What do you think is gonna happen when all of the induatrialized economies begin to contract?

The point of all of this is to say that future global economic growth is far from certain and in my opinion highly unlikely.
Its true Dan, the economy is very much intertwined.
I see the global economy like a giant slinky, one group pulling another along, once all catch up, they push the front forward one more time and the slinky takes another step forward.
The slinky just reached the bottom of the stairs.

It will require the US market to pull the rest of the body slinky along.
It will be a slow process at first, but once it starts, I have no doubt, it will lurch forward with the greatest of momentum.

Once our economy recovers, the World will take a deep collective breath of relief and the tensions around the globe will ease off a bit, working people don't have the time to protest.
Official Trump Cult Member

#WWG1WGA

Q PATRIOT!!!

arpad

Quote from: Solar on October 29, 2011, 08:48:39 AM
Reminds me very much of that little lib side show that used to be on, "Fashion Police".
Two wannabe rich libs that felt they had an obligation to correct fashion fauxpaus where ever they could find it, that is until they went to a farm and became overwhelmed.

Maybe we just need to overwhelm these dolts?
Overcome them? There's no way to do that. There are admirable human traits and not-so-admirable human traits. A representative form of government limits what can be done about those not-so-admirable traits to where they result in actions that infringe the rights of others.

So lefties must be born like a chronic, but rarely fatal, medical condition; you want to try to keep it in check but not at the cost of your health.

If it helps, I think they're losing, they have been losing for some time and that the realization that they're losing is starting to become hard for lefties to ignore.

Dan, you had me scratching my head for a while with "Now lets move on to China. Their rasy mojey bubble is debt too."

Took me a bit to ferret out that "rasy mojey" was a creative misspelling of "easy money".

Normally I wouldn't dream of commenting on someone's spelling because that's when Muphry's law (snarky remarks about spelling inevitably have spelling errors in them) kicks in but it took me a couple of minutes to figure out what you'd intended to write.

Solar

Quote from: arpad on October 29, 2011, 10:16:23 AM
Overcome them? There's no way to do that. There are admirable human traits and not-so-admirable human traits. A representative form of government limits what can be done about those not-so-admirable traits to where they result in actions that infringe the rights of others.

So lefties must be born like a chronic, but rarely fatal, medical condition; you want to try to keep it in check but not at the cost of your health.

If it helps, I think they're losing, they have been losing for some time and that the realization that they're losing is starting to become hard for lefties to ignore.

Dan, you had me scratching my head for a while with "Now lets move on to China. Their rasy mojey bubble is debt too."

Took me a bit to ferret out that "rasy mojey" was a creative misspelling of "easy money".

Normally I wouldn't dream of commenting on someone's spelling because that's when Muphry's law (snarky remarks about spelling inevitably have spelling errors in them) kicks in but it took me a couple of minutes to figure out what you'd intended to write.
:))
Over come? No, overwhelm.
But I too had to figure out easy money, I too hit the wromg keys, all due to the fact that I wore out the keys and can no longer remember where to put my over sized fingers. :-[
Official Trump Cult Member

#WWG1WGA

Q PATRIOT!!!

walkstall

Quote from: Solar on October 29, 2011, 10:54:13 AM
:))
Over come? No, overwhelm.
But I too had to figure out easy money, I too hit the wromg keys, all due to the fact that I wore out the keys and can no longer remember where to put my over sized fingers. :-[

LOL  White out will help. 
A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

Solar

Quote from: walkstall on October 29, 2011, 12:18:27 PM

LOL  White out will help. 
To a point, its getting hard to see through the glass on my monitor. ;)
Official Trump Cult Member

#WWG1WGA

Q PATRIOT!!!

walkstall

Quote from: Solar on October 29, 2011, 12:25:12 PM
To a point, its getting hard to see through the glass on my monitor. ;)

So thats my problem, I should be looking at my monistor and not out the window.  :))
A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

jwesley

My prediction (what I think likely, not my ideal vision):

Romney wins 50-48, with third parties picking up more votes than usual; the House remains about the same; 4 seats swing R in the Senate; and we pick up 6 more houses of the state legislatures.

After the election, the economy will begin to recover because business will come out of its defensive crouch.  New Federal hiring will be frozen, many of Obama's economic executive orders will go away.  Obamacare will be pared down to a shadow.

At the same time, I don't think Romney connects well with voters and his popularity will be soft.  I also think he'll sell us out on immigration, at the least.

arpad

"popularity will be soft"?

As to the rest of the prediction, it seems credible to me. Romney's not my first choice but he's got a pretty steady 25% or thereabouts who like him and that might be his base to take the primary. Being less distinctly conservative he'd be harder to portray as a baby-eating neocon although it wouldn't be for want of trying.

In the Senate there are 23 Democratic and independent seats up for reelection and 10 Repubs.

A lot of how the Senate goes will be dependent, just as the presidency, on the state of the economy and the momentum of the Tea Party movement. As much as I'd like to see a re-ignition of the anger and enthusiasm that vaulted the Tea Party movement to national prominence in the 2010, right now I'm not seeing it. Maybe closer to the election.

Dan

Actually the senate is about as sure of a thing as Lindsey Lohan on a booze and vicodin bender.

Way more Democrat Senate seats are coming up for reelection than Republican seats and many of these Democrat seats are in more conservative states. It's mathmatically improbable that we don't retake the senate even if everything goes to hell for republicans over the next year.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Dan

As well as Cain is doing in the polls he is gonna have to win either Iowa or Florida early to stay in the race. Mitt has just about sewn up New Hampshire. If Mitt somehow or another wins Iowa (he is polling second) then he walks away with the nomination. If Cain wins Iowa and Mitt wins New Hampshire then we have a horse race.

Mitt has the organization and Cain has the tea party. Sort of a ready made organization of sorts even if it is more or less informal.

It'll be fun to watch either way.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

redlom xof

I predict Obama will get another term. Economy will stay slow or get worse. Republicans will get in after his two terms is up. You guys will blame all the future mistakes done by republicans on Obama's 8 years in office.
The cycle will continue and nothing will be solved. The system will stay in place.
Also, air strikes will start on Iran with heavy sanctions as well. We will probably get attacked 9/11 style again and wonder why people hate us so much. Than ground invasion will beguin.
Unemployment will never be the same again. We got use to 5 -6 % unemployment as the norm, now we will accept 9-10 %.
"Christians are expected to pacify angry Muslims, Communist brats and homosexual radicals and Mexicans who convinced themselves that they own our land. That tells me the Christians are the better people among brutal and violent beasts."  Yawn - 15th May, 2013

quiller

Leftard sez....

QuoteWe will probably get attacked 9/11 style again and wonder why people hate us so much. Th[e]n ground invasion will begin.

Ground invasion of the U.S.? Being a world superpower seriously irritates the left, doesn't it, sonny? How dare America be better than anyone else!

I'll expect you'll keep a candle lit in your window, for the return of Marx and Lenin...or the Saracen horde.