New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.

The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.

Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.   

Whats left now?

California 172
Indiana 57
New Jersey 51
Washington 44
Maryland 38
Nebraska 36
West Virginia 34
South Dakota 29
Connecticut 28
Oregon 28
Montana 27
New Mexico 24
Rhode Island 19
Pennsylvania 17 +54

Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.

He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump... These "losses" (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain't taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.

Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.

Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
~~~~More~~~~

http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/20/new-york-never-mattered-ted-cruz-won-presidency/

Quote from: Solar on April 21, 2016, 06:30:19 AM
New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency

Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.

Who knows. It's not like in Russia, where for almoust two hundreds years you can tell who the next leader will be. 'Cos you know, after bold or boldish leader come leader with hair. Look at that:

So if you want to know, who will be replacing Putin, look for politic wth hair on.   

I think what may be the most interesting state remaining is West Virginia. About a month or so ago, most would think that WV was prime Trump territory - a state that Trump would clean up in and take every single delegate considering that WV is mostly made up of the same type of demographic that went for Trump is eastern Kentucky and heavy for Trump in western Virginia. But that was back when Rubio was sucking votes away from Cruz by the bunches. Also, WV has crazy ass direct election voting where delegates dont have to be bound to anyone.

While the walking heads are giving all 34 WV delegates to Trump, its no sure thing like it was in early-mid March. Trump failing to secure even 4-5 of the 34 delegates would be detrimental.

WV votes May 10th, just 1 week after Indiana. The only other state voting May 10th is Nebraska. With the odds at 99.9% that Cruz will win Nebraska, Cruz can spend an entire week dedicating his focus on WV.

Quote from: Solar on April 21, 2016, 06:30:19 AM
New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.

The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.

Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.   

Whats left now?

California 172
Indiana 57
New Jersey 51
Washington 44
Maryland 38
Nebraska 36
West Virginia 34
South Dakota 29
Connecticut 28
Oregon 28
Montana 27
New Mexico 24
Rhode Island 19
Pennsylvania 17 +54

Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.

He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump... These "losses" (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain't taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.

Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.

Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
~~~~More~~~~

http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/20/new-york-never-mattered-ted-cruz-won-presidency/

Sure appears contested with those figures although RealClearPolitics has it 845 to 559.  Lets hope it then moves into a brokered situation. 

Quote from: kalash on April 21, 2016, 06:51:03 AM
Who knows. It's not like in Russia, where for almoust two hundreds years you can tell who the next leader will be. 'Cos you know, after bold or boldish leader come leader with hair. Look at that:

So if you want to know, who will be replacing Putin, look for politic wth hair on.   

English only!

Quote from: admin on April 21, 2016, 08:07:34 AM
English only!

You don't need to read it, pictures says it all.

Quote from: kalash on April 21, 2016, 09:45:07 AM
You don't need to read it, pictures says it all.

I should take the word of a Communist, why?

Quote from: mrconservative on April 21, 2016, 06:58:45 AM
I think what may be the most interesting state remaining is West Virginia. About a month or so ago, most would think that WV was prime Trump territory - a state that Trump would clean up in and take every single delegate considering that WV is mostly made up of the same type of demographic that went for Trump is eastern Kentucky and heavy for Trump in western Virginia. But that was back when Rubio was sucking votes away from Cruz by the bunches. Also, WV has crazy ass direct election voting where delegates dont have to be bound to anyone.

While the walking heads are giving all 34 WV delegates to Trump, its no sure thing like it was in early-mid March. Trump failing to secure even 4-5 of the 34 delegates would be detrimental.

WV votes May 10th, just 1 week after Indiana. The only other state voting May 10th is Nebraska. With the odds at 99.9% that Cruz will win Nebraska, Cruz can spend an entire week dedicating his focus on WV.

http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/political-discussion-and-debate/trump-campaign-daily-incompetence-report-wv/msg301233/#msg301233

After Trump's comments on NBC his supporters are really going to have to close their eyes and put fingers in their ears to pretend he is anything close to conservative instead of a RHINO in the first degree. I am most offended by the support of transgendered people using whatever bathroom they want. They can do that already but forcing the rest of us to suck it up and act like its normal is way over the common sense line.

Quote from: zrbd on April 21, 2016, 12:11:35 PM
After Trump's comments on NBC his supporters are really going to have to close their eyes and put fingers in their ears to pretend he is anything close to conservative instead of a RHINO in the first degree. I am most offended by the support of transgendered people using whatever bathroom they want. They can do that already but forcing the rest of us to suck it up and act like its normal is way over the common sense line.

This should be interesting to watch. I'd imagine the majority of them will do as you suggest, put their fingers in their ears and go lalalalalala....

Quote from: tsuke on April 26, 2016, 12:10:49 PM
according to fivethirtyeight its currently at 846 trump 544 cruz.

Ive been hearing estimates all over the place. From a high of 1400 from manafort to some Cruz supporters telling me they see trump at 1050 (with cruz at 1080 ish)

I was wondering what the estimates of everyone around here was?

My personal range is 1150-1300

Who are you posting to....

Please learn to use the quote function when posting.

Quote from: Solar on April 21, 2016, 06:30:19 AM


Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.

If the chips fall as described even the unbound delegates won't make a difference.  If the margin is narrower than just explained the unbound delegates may matter in that first vote.

Quote from: tsuke on April 26, 2016, 12:23:37 PM
to the whole thread? wanted to get an answer from anyone willing :)

You don't need to do that. We read all the posts and do not limit our posts to just responses to our posts. So please use the quote function.