Quote from: taxed on March 07, 2016, 04:54:13 PM
I've been thinking about that.  I saw mrconservative say 500k already voted.  If there is any chunk of that Rubio, do you think Cruz takes FL?  It seems so to me.  We know Trump stays at his ~30% ceiling.

I actually heard today that the majority of early voters in FL have actually been for Rubio. I don't see how that's true though. That would really go against the trend this far because Trump has cleaned up in every state in regards to early voters.

Quote from: mrconservative on March 07, 2016, 04:57:41 PM
I actually heard today that the majority of early voters in FL have actually been for Rubio. I don't see how that's true though. That would really go against the trend this far because Trump has cleaned up in every state in regards to early voters.

My gut is telling me Cruz takes FL.  I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I sure wouldn't be shocked at this point.

Quote from: taxed on March 07, 2016, 04:54:13 PM
I've been thinking about that.  I saw mrconservative say 500k already voted.  If there is any chunk of that Rubio, do you think Cruz takes FL?  It seems so to me.  We know Trump stays at his ~30% ceiling.

Florida is eight days out, with yet another debate in the interim. A lot could change. Tomorrow's vote could sway perceptions. If I had to guess, I'd say no, given that as late as even yesterday, Cruz's tactic in Florida still seemed to be blocking Rubio. The moonshot scenario is if Rubio bombs again tomorrow, his polling in Florida goes down, and he decides to chuck it early in an effort to stop Trump. He could participate in the debate and just go nuclear on Trump, then suspend and publicly endorse Cruz. It would be a great way to get the last laugh on Christie.

Short of something like that, my guess would be not likely for Cruz to pull it out, but like I say, 8 days is forever with this stuff.

Quote from: taxed on March 07, 2016, 04:59:01 PM
My gut is telling me Cruz takes FL.  I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I sure wouldn't be shocked at this point.

I wish but I give it about a 7% chance that Cruz wins FL. Trump is sure to get big amounts of votes in the Palm Beach area, also the counties bordering Alabama and Georgia are likely to go for Trump, I believe. In the recent days I've suddenly seen a spike of Trump signage, stickers, etc in and around the eastern part of central FL.

With Rubio polling at 30%, I just don't see how enough Rubio voters break for Cruz in the end to give Cruz a win here in FL.

Quote from: taxed on March 07, 2016, 03:38:46 PM
You can go ahead and worry.  Not me.

That I will do.

Quote from: taxed on March 07, 2016, 04:59:01 PM
My gut is telling me Cruz takes FL.  I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I sure wouldn't be shocked at this point.

If it were to happen, the nomination process might be over for practical intents at that point. So much for Trump's inevitability.

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 07, 2016, 05:17:33 PM
If it were to happen, the nomination process might be over for practical intents at that point. So much for Trump's inevitability.

Exactly.  I already have it factored in that Cruz loses, but it would totally be a kill shot if he wins.

You guys are much more optimistic than myself. I'm just hoping for a squeezing out of 2nd, at best.

If Cruz doesn't have a good day tomorrow, no reason to think FL would turn out great for him. A good day tomorrow, so at least 1 win, is vital for going into March 15th for Cruz. In my opinion at least.

Quote from: mrconservative on March 07, 2016, 05:26:35 PM
You guys are much more optimistic than myself. I'm just hoping for a squeezing out of 2nd, at best.

If Cruz doesn't have a good day tomorrow, no reason to think FL would turn out great for him. A good day tomorrow, so at least 1 win, is vital for going into March 15th for Cruz. In my opinion at least.

if you think I sound more optimistic than 7%, I should be clearer. I described about a four-cushion bank shot to get Cruz over the line. You are right, he certainly isn't going to get there with Rubio hovering around 30%.

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 07, 2016, 05:02:48 PM
Florida is eight days out, with yet another debate in the interim. A lot could change. Tomorrow's vote could sway perceptions. If I had to guess, I'd say no, given that as late as even yesterday, Cruz's tactic in Florida still seemed to be blocking Rubio. The moonshot scenario is if Rubio bombs again tomorrow, his polling in Florida goes down, and he decides to chuck it early in an effort to stop Trump. He could participate in the debate and just go nuclear on Trump, then suspend and publicly endorse Cruz. It would be a great way to get the last laugh on Christie.

Short of something like that, my guess would be not likely for Cruz to pull it out, but like I say, 8 days is forever with this stuff.

An estimated 20% of Florida's votes have already been registered and Early voting continues all week Very good chance that as much as 40% will vote before the 15th. It could be done but more then likely Ted will be the spoiler cutting into Rubio more then Trump! If Rubio was to lose big it should kill any chance he has to continue his campaign. The Money people will run from him.
If Rubio dies in Florida Cruz will be the only one left standing that can stop Trump! Will they support him? Most of the RINO Party leaders hate him more then Trump!

Quote from: mrconservative on March 07, 2016, 05:26:35 PM
You guys are much more optimistic than myself. I'm just hoping for a squeezing out of 2nd, at best.

If Cruz doesn't have a good day tomorrow, no reason to think FL would turn out great for him. A good day tomorrow, so at least 1 win, is vital for going into March 15th for Cruz. In my opinion at least.

That's pretty much what everyone is saying, including polls, but I'll give him 12 to 14%+, which isn't much, but no where near as bad as pollsters.

Quote from: redbeard on March 07, 2016, 05:35:08 PM
An estimated 20% of Florida's votes have already been registered and Early voting continues all week Very good chance that as much as 40% will vote before the 15th. It could be done but more then likely Ted will be the spoiler cutting into Rubio more then Trump! If Rubio was to lose big it should kill any chance he has to continue his campaign. The Money people will run from him.
If Rubio dies in Florida Cruz will be the only one left standing that can stop Trump! Will they support him? Most of the RINO Party leaders hate him more then Trump!

Could the base afford to destroy Trump and then not back the next in line guy? I mean, they are spending ALOT of money to get rid of Trump. If they succeed, I dont see them moving their focus to Cruz but I could be wrong. I know they want Bush or Rubio...

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 07, 2016, 04:52:50 PM
You know what? It's pretty obvious once you think about it, but there's a very good chance Rubio gets shut out tomorrow. We don't have most of the polling we'd need to know for sure, but that's beginning to look like the most likely outcome. Zero delegates out of four states. How might that affect his commitment to stay in the race another week?

I hope you are correct.

I was just reading that big donors are quite apprehensive to give anymore money to Rubio's campaign. They don't wanna spend money only to have it be flushed down the drain if Rubio fails to win FL.

If Rubio wins Flori-duh, I'd wanna play Gore and ask for a recount.  I know I probably sound like the liberal media types who said they don't know how Bush won because they don't know anyone who voted for him, but I am in hurricane alley and everything I see, hear, and read down here backs up my belief that no good Floridian will cast their vote for Marco Rubio.  The one thing I can guarantee at least, I know of 4 votes for sure that will NOT go to Trump or Rubio, so Cruz has at least 4 down here