Quote from: taxed on March 05, 2016, 07:20:19 PM
LA is tightening up.....

LA was called a while ago. Cruz isn't winning. Best hope is a tight ending.

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 07:23:40 PM
It's over in KY. Nothing called by Trump won Jefferson County. That pretty much says it all I think.

Looks funny on my screen. They have Trump trailing by 5K votes with a check mark next to his name......

That's because they didn't post Trumps votes in Jefferson.......

There it is.....damn! One more day, maybe....

Let's see Trump's people try to spin a <5 point win in KY though, where they were supposed to win by 15+.

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 07:24:46 PM
Best hope is a tight ending.

Barney Frank said that once. Or was it twice...

Quote from: taxed on March 05, 2016, 06:11:25 PM
Bye loser.

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 05, 2016, 07:31:01 PM
There it is.....damn! One more day, maybe....

Let's see Trump's people try to spin a <5 point win in KY though, where they were supposed to win by 15+.

Can Rubio get out please. Cruz should have a clean sweep tonight if it wasn't for Rubio.

Damn Jefferson County.

KY called for Trump.

Cruz won every major county in KY except Jefferson County. Trump won Jefferson county by under 1,000 votes.

Trump won because he ran up the lower educated portion of KY - eastern KY coal mining land.

Looking ahead.......

Between now and March 15.......March 15 primaries are probably too far out to speculate in any detail.

Sunday, Puerto Rico -- Open primary. No polling that I see, but is anyone really trying other than Marco Rubio? Seems to me Rubio wins basically uncontested, which means he exceeds the 50% threshold and wins all 23 delegates.

Tuesday, Mississippi -- Open primary. No applicable polling. Looks like a Trump win, but the state is strictly proportional, so Cruz doesn't get hurt badly as long as he finishes second. 15%/50% thresholds. 40 delegates at stake, could look something like Trump 24, Cruz 16, or Trump 22, Cruz 14, Other 4 (if Rubio and/or Kasich manage to scratch).

Tuesday, Michigan -- Open primary. Inadequate polling, but let's assume the existing polling is mostly accurate and Trump wins. 15%/50% thresholds again, Cruz just needs to make sure he hits 15%, which shouldn't be a problem. Placement doesn't matter. 58 delegates at stake, could look something like Trump 20, Cruz 14, Kasich 14, Rubio 10, or Trump 24, Cruz 17, Kasich 17, Rubio 0 (if Rubio fails to scratch).

Tuesday, Idaho -- Closed Caucus. No polling at all that I see, but possibly a good fit for Cruz. Strictly proportional with 20%/50% thresholds, but if Cruz is organized there and targeting this, why isn't he a threat to hit 50%? This could be the opportunity for Cruz to steal the day. Look at how the other states break down (Michigan and Mississippi). Even if Cruz fares badly there, he could more than make up for it with an Idaho sweep (50% +1 statewide). 32 votes at stake (80% of Mississippi). Possible Cruz sweep, 32-0-0-0.

Tuesday, Hawaii -- Semi-Open Caucus. No polling. 20% lower threshold, no upper. Strictly proportional statewide. The Republican Party of Hawaii appears to be wholly corrupt and an adjunct to the Democrat party there. Conservatives have no real representation. Hard to say what will happen, but it's hard to see any candidate getting clear by more than about 5 EV. 19 votes at stake. Hazarding a guess, Trump 9, Cruz 6, Rubio 4, Kasich fails to qualify.

Saturday, March 12, District of Columbia -- Closed Caucus. No polling. 15%/50% thresholds. Eh......do you really want to win there? Might be better bragging rights in losing. Just hit the 15% barrier, and take a few delegates. 19 votes at stake. Possible outcomes (WAG): Kasich 7, Rubio 5, Trump 4, Cruz 3, or Kasich 9, Rubio 6, Trump 4, Cruz 0 (if Cruz fails to scratch -- he isn't well-liked there).

Saturday, March 12 Wyoming and Guam -- They don't have an actual democratic process in either of those places. Delegates there (Wyoming 29, Guam 9) will be chosen at their respective state or territorial convention, where the ranking muckity-mucks will substitute their own astute judgement for that of the voters.

So there you have it, a big muddle where not much will be settled, at least delegate-wise. The one opportunity for real separation is Idaho, which isn't getting much attention.

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 07:32:51 PM
Can Rubio get out please. Cruz should have a clean sweep tonight if it wasn't for Rubio.

This week is going to be interesting.  Rubio is going to be under so much pressure to drop out that I don't see how he won't.  I bet he drops out before Florida.  He's going to have every conservative-leaning/anti-Trump media personality hounding him relentlessly.

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 05, 2016, 10:16:15 PM
Looking ahead.......

Between now and March 15.......March 15 primaries are probably too far out to speculate in any detail.

Sunday, Puerto Rico -- Open primary. No polling that I see, but is anyone really trying other than Marco Rubio? Seems to me Rubio wins basically uncontested, which means he exceeds the 50% threshold and wins all 23 delegates.

Tuesday, Mississippi -- Open primary. No applicable polling. Looks like a Trump win, but the state is strictly proportional, so Cruz doesn't get hurt badly as long as he finishes second. 15%/50% thresholds. 40 delegates at stake, could look something like Trump 24, Cruz 16, or Trump 22, Cruz 14, Other 4 (if Rubio and/or Kasich manage to scratch).

Tuesday, Michigan -- Open primary. Inadequate polling, but let's assume the existing polling is mostly accurate and Trump wins. 15%/50% thresholds again, Cruz just needs to make sure he hits 15%, which shouldn't be a problem. Placement doesn't matter. 58 delegates at stake, could look something like Trump 20, Cruz 14, Kasich 14, Rubio 10, or Trump 24, Cruz 17, Kasich 17, Rubio 0 (if Rubio fails to scratch).

Tuesday, Idaho -- Closed Caucus. No polling at all that I see, but possibly a good fit for Cruz. Strictly proportional with 20%/50% thresholds, but if Cruz is organized there and targeting this, why isn't he a threat to hit 50%? This could be the opportunity for Cruz to steal the day. Look at how the other states break down (Michigan and Mississippi). Even if Cruz fares badly there, he could more than make up for it with an Idaho sweep (50% +1 statewide). 32 votes at stake (80% of Mississippi). Possible Cruz sweep, 32-0-0-0.

Tuesday, Hawaii -- Semi-Open Caucus. No polling. 20% lower threshold, no upper. Strictly proportional statewide. The Republican Party of Hawaii appears to be wholly corrupt and an adjunct to the Democrat party there. Conservatives have no real representation. Hard to say what will happen, but it's hard to see any candidate getting clear by more than about 5 EV. 19 votes at stake. Hazarding a guess, Trump 9, Cruz 6, Rubio 4, Kasich fails to qualify.

Saturday, March 12, District of Columbia -- Closed Caucus. No polling. 15%/50% thresholds. Eh......do you really want to win there? Might be better bragging rights in losing. Just hit the 15% barrier, and take a few delegates. 19 votes at stake. Possible outcomes (WAG): Kasich 7, Rubio 5, Trump 4, Cruz 3, or Kasich 9, Rubio 6, Trump 4, Cruz 0 (if Cruz fails to scratch -- he isn't well-liked there).

Saturday, March 12 Wyoming and Guam -- They don't have an actual democratic process in either of those places. Delegates there (Wyoming 29, Guam 9) will be chosen at their respective state or territorial convention, where the ranking muckity-mucks will substitute their own astute judgement for that of the voters.

So there you have it, a big muddle where not much will be settled, at least delegate-wise. The one opportunity for real separation is Idaho, which isn't getting much attention.

I'm most curious about Michigan.......  A weakened Trump in a dark blue union state.  I'm looking forward to that one the most.

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 05, 2016, 06:24:47 PM
Why do you keep banning people just because they aren't 100% on board with the standard way of thinking around here? "Lib" referred to "Libertarian," not liberal.

Your site, do what you want, but this guy seemed to me hardly offensive. You have maybe 2 dozen core posters, and 90% think in lock step. To me, that gets boring. Better to argue with people who disagree with you than essentially post "ditto" in response to those who do.

Just my 2 cents. I'm sure I'd be long gone with the rest of them except that whatever my disagreeable points might be, I'm a solid Cruz supporter. That shouldn't be the criterion. Troll is one thing, but that guy wasn't a troll. Neither was Coolidge23, even though he couldn't give a straight answer to a question. Neither was Skeptic, even though I thought he was at first.

they come back with a different name. If trolls could learn to disagree without the profanity, disrespect, childish temper, name calling......... arguing is fine , but they need to bring something to the table when they do.

Hey, Solar. The California moderate thinks we need more trolls.

The GOP is sooooooo hoping that Rubio can take Fla to deny Trump.....I think last night PROVES what I have been saying is right, Marco blew it in the previous debate acting like Eddie Haskell from Leave it to Beaver. CRUZ COULD WIN FLA, it would be a tough fight cuz Trump has "the fix" in, but lotta Cubano's in Fla, lotta older retired folks enough of 'em might see the light of day and be enough to push Ted out in front.