Quote from: taxed on March 05, 2016, 05:06:41 PM
The campaign is not live or die by a few delegates right now.  Trump was polling so high in Maine, they were going to anoint him King of Maine. 

Same thing for Kansas. Latest poll was Trump up 36-30 over Cruz in Kansas. End result was 31 point swing. Cruz up 18 and Trump down 13.

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 05:09:12 PM
Same thing for Kansas. Latest poll was Trump up 36-30 over Cruz in Kansas. End result was 31 point swing. Cruz up 18 and Trump down 13.

Exactly.

Wyoming and Colorado also haven't been assigned yet.

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 05:09:12 PM
Same thing for Kansas. Latest poll was Trump up 36-30 over Cruz in Kansas. End result was 31 point swing. Cruz up 18 and Trump down 13.

Kansas is a Caucus.  Thats why.

Louisiana is the real race to watch tonight.  It will have the most impact.

Quote from: LibDave on March 05, 2016, 05:10:56 PM
Kansas is a Caucus.  Thats why.

Cruz only wins caucus states?  OK.

Quote from: taxed on March 05, 2016, 05:12:27 PM
Cruz only wins caucus states?  OK.

I didn't say that.  He does do better in Caucus states.  My point is Caucus states don't tend to abide by pre-caucus polling due to the nature of caucuses.  So far his wins have been in caucus states but I don't think that means he can only win those.  Texas was great for Cruz and it wasn't a caucus.  Texas was critical for Cruz.

Quote from: LibDave on March 05, 2016, 05:06:28 PM
Well you keep counting "perception" HAHA.  That way you can pretend and stick your  head in the sand.  The rest of the convention will count delegates.

BTW, I mentioned this to you earlier about proportional votes and pointed out it is precisely why it would be difficult for Cruz to catch up.  There is something else you aren't aware of in regards to primaries.  Kansas and Maine aren't as important for 2 reasons.  They aren't Red States and they aren't all that populated.

Kansas isn't a Red State? Are you high?

Quote from: LibDave on March 05, 2016, 05:14:52 PM
I didn't say that.  He does do better in Caucus states.  My point is Caucus states don't tend to abide by pre-caucus polling due to the nature of caucuses.  So far his wins have been in caucus states but I don't think that means he can only win those.  Texas was great for Cruz and it wasn't a caucus.  Texas was critical for Cruz.

I dont care how ever a state votes - a 31 point swing is massive.

I know the big counties arent in yet, but Trump is pulling away in KY.

Quote from: LibDave on March 05, 2016, 05:06:28 PM
Well you keep counting "perception" HAHA.  That way you can pretend and stick your  head in the sand.  The rest of the convention will count delegates.

BTW, I mentioned this to you earlier about proportional votes and pointed out it is precisely why it would be difficult for Cruz to catch up.  There is something else you aren't aware of in regards to primaries.  Kansas and Maine aren't as important for 2 reasons.  They aren't Red States and they aren't all that populated.

Oh dear....  here we go...

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 05:17:12 PM
I know the big counties arent in yet, but Trump is pulling away in KY.

Extreme bias to the heavy hillbilly areas so far. I expect you are right about the ultimate result, but I think it will tighten considerably. Hard to tell how much with 0 returns from the areas that will determine that. I'd predict a Trump win of somewhat less than ten points though. How does that compare with polling?

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 05:17:12 PM
I know the big counties arent in yet, but Trump is pulling away in KY.

Oddly, I'm sort of hoping Cruz loses, but within his vote tally of Marco's.  The pressure on Marco will be too much to not drop out.  He wouldn't be able to walk down the street without someone throwing tomatoes at him...

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 05, 2016, 05:22:01 PM
Extreme bias to the heavy hillbilly areas so far. I expect you are right about the ultimate result, but I think it will tighten considerably. Hard to tell how much with 0 returns from the areas that will determine that. I'd predict a Trump win of somewhat less than ten points though. How does that compare with polling?

Trump was about 18 percentage points up in Kentucky polls over Rubio.  Cruz 3rd.
Kentucky is a caucus too though so organization is as important as pre-primary polling.

Kansas was a remarkable turn-around though.

Looks like Cruz got about 6% points from Rubio in Kentucky over the last few days.

Hey!  Kasich met the 10% hurdle and got a delegate.

Final Kansas delagates.  C24 T9 R6 K1.  All 40 allocated.