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COVID-19, known as WUFLU

Started by Solar, January 21, 2020, 05:27:10 AM

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petep

Based on the death rates compared to the normal flu (less than 1% so far), and the economic devastation the actions will have, I'd call this the hail mary flu...the last ditch effort before the 2020 elections to blame something on trump.

Heck, 90% of the media articles are political in nature...always some blame for the corona virus levied at trump...


petep

Quote from: Solar on March 22, 2020, 09:19:12 AM
Incubation time is two to three weeks. Give it time, kids can be foolish.

I understand that...

but my point stands...miami, cancun, south padre island, panama city beach...we know the top destinations and we know how many people were there...

whether these students should have or should not have gone is irrelevant...they went....so we have a control group for the independent variable to be tested...all those who stayed in, businesses closed etc...and hundreds of thousands who ignored mandates - both the students and all the hotels and businesses that hosted them while on break should show massive, massive outbreaks...at least 15-20x the non breakers population....at least...


Possum

Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 12:04:30 AM
Based on the death rates compared to the normal flu (less than 1% so far), and the economic devastation the actions will have, I'd call this the hail mary flu...the last ditch effort before the 2020 elections to blame something on trump.

Heck, 90% of the media articles are political in nature...always some blame for the corona virus levied at trump...
As long as there are enough hospital beds, the death rate can be kept low. However, if the virus explodes in numbers, there will not be enough, as this is what is happening in Italy, and the death rate will go up.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1257852/Italy-coronavirus-intubating-elderly-pandemic-china-hospitals-Nadine-Dorries


This is what President Trump is trying to avoid.

Solar

Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 12:11:11 AM
I understand that...

but my point stands...miami, cancun, south padre island, panama city beach...we know the top destinations and we know how many people were there...

whether these students should have or should not have gone is irrelevant...they went....so we have a control group for the independent variable to be tested...all those who stayed in, businesses closed etc...and hundreds of thousands who ignored mandates - both the students and all the hotels and businesses that hosted them while on break should show massive, massive outbreaks...at least 15-20x the non breakers population....at least...
I wouldn't call it a control group because it's not a contained group, many will not come down with symptoms, yet may be contagious as they spread it across the country on their return trip, then wait another 2 to 3 weeks for that outbreak to occur.
This is the problem with youth, they aren't really deep thinkers, they think only of themselves and believe they're invulnerable. Anyway, I'm going off my history as a stupid teen.
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petep

Quote from: Solar on March 23, 2020, 01:26:49 AM
I wouldn't call it a control group because it's not a contained group, many will not come down with symptoms, yet may be contagious as they spread it across the country on their return trip, then wait another 2 to 3 weeks for that outbreak to occur.
This is the problem with youth, they aren't really deep thinkers, they think only of themselves and believe they're invulnerable. Anyway, I'm going off my history as a stupid teen.

Certainly the places  all visited are a control group. If the hypothesis behind all the business closing etc is correct, you expect to see major major outbreaks in spring break destinations.

Solar

Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 01:58:25 AM
Certainly the places  all visited are a control group. If the hypothesis behind all the business closing etc is correct, you expect to see major major outbreaks in spring break destinations.
Yes, but assuming any of them contract it as they gather, they won't be symptomatic for several days, though still contagious, so everyone they come in contact with is susceptible.
Kids from all across the Nation heading back home, the amount of man hours retracing their steps will in itself, take days if not weeks/months.
In the mean time, those people are spreading it as well. Thank God they found what appears to be a cure.

Like I said, this has yet to peak, but I don't see long term damage to the economy, in fact, the optimist in me sees an even bigger boom than we've experienced since Trump took office.
The world is waiting for the US to recover, so we will be leading the recovery.
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Solar

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Possum

Quote from: Solar on March 23, 2020, 02:58:47 AM
Yes, but assuming any of them contract it as they gather, they won't be symptomatic for several days, though still contagious, so everyone they come in contact with is susceptible.
Kids from all across the Nation heading back home, the amount of man hours retracing their steps will in itself, take days if not weeks/months.
In the mean time, those people are spreading it as well. Thank God they found what appears to be a cure.

Like I said, this has yet to peak, but I don't see long term damage to the economy, in fact, the optimist in me sees an even bigger boom than we've experienced since Trump took office.
The world is waiting for the US to recover, so we will be leading the recovery.
The nation got the chance to see exactly how the two parties act in times of crisis, looks like a clear choice to me.

petep

Quote from: Solar on March 23, 2020, 02:58:47 AM
Yes, but assuming any of them contract it as they gather, they won't be symptomatic for several days, though still contagious, so everyone they come in contact with is susceptible.
Kids from all across the Nation heading back home, the amount of man hours retracing their steps will in itself, take days if not weeks/months.
In the mean time, those people are spreading it as well. Thank God they found what appears to be a cure.

Like I said, this has yet to peak, but I don't see long term damage to the economy, in fact, the optimist in me sees an even bigger boom than we've experienced since Trump took office.
The world is waiting for the US to recover, so we will be leading the recovery.

for a minute, lets forget about the students and where they return to...where they visited should show massive increases in the disease...massive....all we should be hearing about over the next 2 weeks is what is happening in miami, cancun, south padre island...remember many were there over the past 1-4 weeks ..

yes, over time we will recover economically...was it worth it...why not shut down every flu season that kills astronomically more...

the scary part is, to me, is this disease has killed less that 1% of the annual flu in the states and look how easy it was for the feds and locals gov't to shut down just about everything, and force people to not gather etc...

if it kills 20% of the annual flu - so at least 20-40x more people die...would it be worth shutting down practically the whole economy?

even if for the best of intentions, it was shown how easy it is for gov't to force businesses to close....that is unsettling...

ldub23

Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 03:48:04 AM
for a minute, lets forget about the students and where they return to...where they visited should show massive increases in the disease...massive....all we should be hearing about over the next 2 weeks is what is happening in miami, cancun, south padre island...remember many were there over the past 1-4 weeks ..

yes, over time we will recover economically...was it worth it...why not shut down every flu season that kills astronomically more...

the scary part is, to me, is this disease has killed less that 1% of the annual flu in the states and look how easy it was for the feds and locals gov't to shut down just about everything, and force people to not gather etc...

if it kills 20% of the annual flu - so at least 20-40x more people die...would it be worth shutting down practically the whole economy?

even if for the best of intentions, it was shown how easy it is for gov't to force businesses to close....that is unsettling...

Here  is  some  more good  news. The death rate  continues to drop.
Mild  corona  virus death reate  continues  on a steady decline. Last  night  i calculated  it as  1.27% As  of a few  minutes ago from johns  hopkins  its  sunk to 459/40961=1.11%. A rather  large  drop. Its time  to drop the  fearmongering. It will be  below  1% very  soon. I dont think when this  is  over there  will be  much difference  in flu and  corona death rates. Also look at  what  i posted  about  2017/18 where the CDC said 80,000 died  in the states of the  flu in the  winter  months. We  need to get  back to work. As far as your  point about  it  being  unsettling  for  the govt  to be able to force  business to close i wonder  if thats even constitutional.

"yes, over time we will recover economically...was it worth it...why not shut down every flu season that kills astronomically more..."

You make a really  good  point. Not  just the  flu though, but  what  if  someone  somewhere  gets  corona when flu season starts  up again in Oct? Shut  down the  whole  economy  again?

Possum

Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 03:48:04 AM
for a minute, lets forget about the students and where they return to...where they visited should show massive increases in the disease...massive....all we should be hearing about over the next 2 weeks is what is happening in miami, cancun, south padre island...remember many were there over the past 1-4 weeks ..

yes, over time we will recover economically...was it worth it...why not shut down every flu season that kills astronomically more...

the scary part is, to me, is this disease has killed less that 1% of the annual flu in the states and look how easy it was for the feds and locals gov't to shut down just about everything, and force people to not gather etc...

if it kills 20% of the annual flu - so at least 20-40x more people die...would it be worth shutting down practically the whole economy?

even if for the best of intentions, it was shown how easy it is for gov't to force businesses to close....that is unsettling...
This virus is listed as far more contagious than the common flu. We do not want to get in the situation Italy is in. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1257852/Italy-coronavirus-intubating-elderly-pandemic-china-hospitals-Nadine-Dorries

Quoteif it kills 20% of the annual flu - so at least 20-40x more people die...would it be worth shutting down practically the whole economy?
Long as we are just making up numbers, what if it kills 100 times more people? If you are going to use numbers show where you are getting them. Keeping people from having to go to the hospital in the first place is the key to a low death rate. Do you really think the whole world is just playing games with this virus??

ldub23

Quote from: Possum on March 23, 2020, 03:59:57 AM
This virus is listed as far more contagious than the common flu. We do not want to get in the situation Italy is in. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1257852/Italy-coronavirus-intubating-elderly-pandemic-china-hospitals-Nadine-Dorries
Long as we are just making up numbers, what if it kills 100 times more people? If you are going to use numbers show where you are getting them. Keeping people from having to go to the hospital in the first place is the key to a low death rate. Do you really think the whole world is just playing games with this virus??

Lets  not  make  up numbers. The death rate  has  been on a steady  decline  since  it was first  reported. The  first  numbers  are  in another  post i made and the  initial death rate  in the states was  4.06% As  of a  few  minutes ago its  1.11% and  its really  well below 1% based  on my  previous  post. Its spring, the  virus  is likely going to go   dormant, and this  wont  kill anywhere what  the  flu did  in 2017/18.

Here  is another  comparative  stat
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics/detail/state-by-state

In Virginia there are an average  of  80 motor  vehicle  deaths  a  month. Jan-thru march that  would  be  240.  My  quick calculation based  on my  link shows that there are  9.6 fatalities  per  100000 people  in va  for  motor  vehicle  deaths while there are  0.047 deaths  per  100000 for  corona so far. There are  alot  more things  more deadly  than corona.

Solar

Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 03:48:04 AM
for a minute, lets forget about the students and where they return to...where they visited should show massive increases in the disease...massive....all we should be hearing about over the next 2 weeks is what is happening in miami, cancun, south padre island...remember many were there over the past 1-4 weeks ..

yes, over time we will recover economically...was it worth it...why not shut down every flu season that kills astronomically more...

the scary part is, to me, is this disease has killed less that 1% of the annual flu in the states and look how easy it was for the feds and locals gov't to shut down just about everything, and force people to not gather etc...

if it kills 20% of the annual flu - so at least 20-40x more people die...would it be worth shutting down practically the whole economy?

even if for the best of intentions, it was shown how easy it is for gov't to force businesses to close....that is unsettling...
What's being overlooked here is, this is not the flu, it is in addition to the flu and COVID is 2.5 times more contagious than the flu.

QuoteThe seasonal flu has a fatality rate of less than 1%. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, estimates that the flu fatality rate is closer to 0.1%. But even accounting for the mild, yet undiagnosed cases of COVID-19, he said last Wednesday, it would still make it "roughly 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu."

Another reason not to compare the two viruses: Influenza has likely been around for more than 2,000 years. "The flu has been with us since the birth of modern medicine," said Adalja. Scientists say the "novel influenza A viruses" in humans lead to a pandemic approximately once every 40 years. But, again, flu vaccines exist.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-its-just-like-other-viruses-and-we-should-go-about-our-normal-business-right-wrong-heres-why-2020-03-09

Thing is, no one knows and that's why the over the top precautions, we've never been here before. Does this validate killing the economy, an economy that will most assuredly recover?
No one has the answer, but doing nothing isn't the answer either. It may be a needed shock to wake people up to being more aware of their environment, I don't know. But what I do know, is Trump has the greatest minds working on the problem and I have to trust that they know what they're doing.
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petep

There is a great deal of generalized average data. One must drill down into the numbers.

Have you examined the death rates by age group. Business insider published this chart. 80 and over its high, 70 and over about half as high. 60 - 70 far less. By the time you get to 50-60 it's a tiny fraction.

The solutions do not match the problem.

It's a akin to saying America has a gun problem. No, America has some inner city cesspools with a gang problem. Of over 3000 us counties, most all violence happens it tiny zip codes in about 1 percent of the counties.

Defining the problem better helps with the solution

That has not happened.

petep

here is the source data for my last post...

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-us-coronavirus-deaths-ages-65-older-cdc-report-2020-3

death by age group, and a number of other data points by age group..