Started by Solar, January 21, 2020, 05:27:10 AM
Quote from: Solar on March 22, 2020, 09:19:12 AMIncubation time is two to three weeks. Give it time, kids can be foolish.
Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 12:04:30 AMBased on the death rates compared to the normal flu (less than 1% so far), and the economic devastation the actions will have, I'd call this the hail mary flu...the last ditch effort before the 2020 elections to blame something on trump.Heck, 90% of the media articles are political in nature...always some blame for the corona virus levied at trump...
Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 12:11:11 AMI understand that...but my point stands...miami, cancun, south padre island, panama city beach...we know the top destinations and we know how many people were there...whether these students should have or should not have gone is irrelevant...they went....so we have a control group for the independent variable to be tested...all those who stayed in, businesses closed etc...and hundreds of thousands who ignored mandates - both the students and all the hotels and businesses that hosted them while on break should show massive, massive outbreaks...at least 15-20x the non breakers population....at least...
Quote from: Solar on March 23, 2020, 01:26:49 AMI wouldn't call it a control group because it's not a contained group, many will not come down with symptoms, yet may be contagious as they spread it across the country on their return trip, then wait another 2 to 3 weeks for that outbreak to occur.This is the problem with youth, they aren't really deep thinkers, they think only of themselves and believe they're invulnerable. Anyway, I'm going off my history as a stupid teen.
Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 01:58:25 AMCertainly the places all visited are a control group. If the hypothesis behind all the business closing etc is correct, you expect to see major major outbreaks in spring break destinations.
Quote from: Solar on March 23, 2020, 02:58:47 AMYes, but assuming any of them contract it as they gather, they won't be symptomatic for several days, though still contagious, so everyone they come in contact with is susceptible.Kids from all across the Nation heading back home, the amount of man hours retracing their steps will in itself, take days if not weeks/months.In the mean time, those people are spreading it as well. Thank God they found what appears to be a cure.Like I said, this has yet to peak, but I don't see long term damage to the economy, in fact, the optimist in me sees an even bigger boom than we've experienced since Trump took office.The world is waiting for the US to recover, so we will be leading the recovery.
Quote from: petep on March 23, 2020, 03:48:04 AMfor a minute, lets forget about the students and where they return to...where they visited should show massive increases in the disease...massive....all we should be hearing about over the next 2 weeks is what is happening in miami, cancun, south padre island...remember many were there over the past 1-4 weeks .. yes, over time we will recover economically...was it worth it...why not shut down every flu season that kills astronomically more...the scary part is, to me, is this disease has killed less that 1% of the annual flu in the states and look how easy it was for the feds and locals gov't to shut down just about everything, and force people to not gather etc...if it kills 20% of the annual flu - so at least 20-40x more people die...would it be worth shutting down practically the whole economy?even if for the best of intentions, it was shown how easy it is for gov't to force businesses to close....that is unsettling...
Quoteif it kills 20% of the annual flu - so at least 20-40x more people die...would it be worth shutting down practically the whole economy?
Quote from: Possum on March 23, 2020, 03:59:57 AMThis virus is listed as far more contagious than the common flu. We do not want to get in the situation Italy is in. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1257852/Italy-coronavirus-intubating-elderly-pandemic-china-hospitals-Nadine-Dorries Long as we are just making up numbers, what if it kills 100 times more people? If you are going to use numbers show where you are getting them. Keeping people from having to go to the hospital in the first place is the key to a low death rate. Do you really think the whole world is just playing games with this virus??
QuoteThe seasonal flu has a fatality rate of less than 1%. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, estimates that the flu fatality rate is closer to 0.1%. But even accounting for the mild, yet undiagnosed cases of COVID-19, he said last Wednesday, it would still make it "roughly 10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu."Another reason not to compare the two viruses: Influenza has likely been around for more than 2,000 years. "The flu has been with us since the birth of modern medicine," said Adalja. Scientists say the "novel influenza A viruses" in humans lead to a pandemic approximately once every 40 years. But, again, flu vaccines exist.