Nate Silver http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ now has Barack Hussein Obama with an 85.1% chance to win the election, and Romney at just a 14.9% chance to win. He has Obama winning 306.9 Electoral votes, and Romney just 231.1.

And if anyone says he doesn't know what he's talking about, they're full of #@$%. In 2008 he correctly predicted the winning party for 49 out of 50 States, AND correctly predicted the winner of every single Senate race. Before he got into doing statistical analysis of politics, he revolutionized the interpretation of baseball stats, inventing a system called PECOTA, an algorithm for predicting future performance by baseball players and teams. Time and time again, PECOTA was used to make predictions people scoffed at, but PECOTA turned out a lot closer in its predictions than the masses.

These are bleak times my friends. We need a miracle on Tuesday.

Fear not. The title says it all. The polls have been statistically biased from the start. They have been intentionaly slanted, in an effort to get us depressed and thinking that we can't win. As far as I'm concerned, they've been about as successful as they would be at convincing us that the sky is green. The only place I'm seeing overt panic, is on the left. Why are they freaking out?

Occasionally the NY Times stumbles into a truthful article, but mostly it should be read as a comic book.

In fact, the polls are even more slanted than anyone can tell. Just to put it into perspective.........

Lets say that the liberal McCain won 4 years ago. Lets also assume that he did all of the same disasterous things that Obama has.

Along comes a centrist, fiscally conservative, blue dog democrat contender. As a registered republican, I would never tell a pollster that I was going to vote for the opposing party. But come election day, that's exactly what I would do.

Quote from: kramarat on November 04, 2012, 03:55:13 AM
Fear not. The title says it all. The polls have been statistically biased from the start.

Wrong. FiveThirtyEight.com is not biased. Were they biased they would have been proven way off in the past, and no one would take them seriously today. Were they biased they would not have correctly predicted 49 out of 50 States and every Senate race in 2008. It is against their self-interest to be biased, because if they are, they will be proven to be way way off time and time again. And then no one will take them seriously any more.

That is not the case. They've proven to be VERY accurate in the past. Both in their statistical models, and in the way they average all the polls to come up with the numerical inputs for their statistical models. I'm afraid they have been proven to be incredibly reliable year after year after year. You may not like to hear that, but you need only to check their record to see it to be true. It looks like Barack Hussein Obama will most likely win over 300 Electoral Votes.

QuoteOccasionally the NY Times stumbles into a truthful article, but mostly it should be read as a comic book.

Afraid not. FiveThirtyEight was bought by the NY Times, but that has not changed their statistical models or their incredible record at predictions. It is still run by Nate Silver, and it still has a phenomonal record of predictions. The predictions I mentioned above are proof.

Quote from: kramarat on November 04, 2012, 04:11:39 AM
In fact, the polls are even more slanted than anyone can tell. Just to put it into perspective.........

Lets say that the liberal McCain won 4 years ago. Lets also assume that he did all of the same disasterous things that Obama has.

Along comes a centrist, fiscally conservative, blue dog democrat contender. As a registered republican, I would never tell a pollster that I was going to vote for the opposing party. But come election day, that's exactly what I would do.

That's your theory. But the fact is Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight.com have been more successful than anyone else in the world at American political predictions the past few years. This is why Nate gets so much media attention and interviews now. The history does not support your theory. Sorry.

Four more years of dark days ahead. At this point I'd actually be surprised if Obama doesn't break 300 Electoral Votes. None of us like to hear that.

Oh. They are owned by the NY Times. Their predictions are based on polls. The polls are more biased and skewed this year, than ever before.

If you're interested in accuracy, use this. It doesn't rely on polls, and they have a much longer track record.

Here you go:

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

As a liberal, I'm sure that you are a little scared by science, but this model has been accurate back to 1980. Sorry.

http://www.campusreform.org/blog/?ID=4435

I'd tell the democrats to pray, but they eliminated God from their platform. Maybe Allah can help them.

QuoteAnd if anyone says he doesn't know what he's talking about, they're full of #@$%.

I guess I'm full of #@$%.

ANYONE who believe Obama has a chance is full of #@$%.  I've also correctly predicted EVERY election as far back as I can remember (although I often voted for the other guy).

I, and several others, have explained the numbers until we're blue in the face.  They don't add up for the foreigner.  I won't go thru it again.  You'll just have to wait and see.

What I DO expect is court fights over close elections.  The Repubs always cave.  Those cowards don't really like victory.

And yes, I am praying for America in this election. Hopefully you'll do likewise.

Your last gasp attempt to spread fear was a noble one. Unfortunately, when a conservative serves up something from the NY Times and it's associated prediction arm, as indisputable proof of anything, it just doesn't pass the smell test.

I'm going to nominate Obama to replace Stevens, as ambassador to Libya. He can take Michelle and the girls with him, and he will be provided identical protection to what was provided to our murdered personnel.

I will be praying, but unless the election is stolen with all these faulty voting machines (maybe your guy knows more about the scope of Dem fraud?), I don't see us losing.  The public is just not excited about the liberal.  The majority of them want him out. 

If you are a believer, I posted a thread about how it really feels like God using our side, it is called "Yawn, I agree with you", go read it, stop believing polls.

GunsAndBibles
Note there is no mention of, or accounting for the thrashing the leftists took in the 2010 mid term elections.
I raise this point because it proves this guy is a complete fool, he does not take in account the motivated voter on the Right, everyone of us, as compared to the pissed off lib that is unhappy with Husein.

Care to address this major point?

From the Rush Limbaugh website (it made me laugh out loud):

 
Deer in the Headlights!

Quote from: Yawn on November 04, 2012, 10:00:34 AM
From the Rush Limbaugh website (it made me laugh out loud):

'Whoah, there's a lot of red on that map!"

Quote from: Solar on November 04, 2012, 09:04:32 AM
GunsAndBibles
Note there is no mention of, or accounting for the thrashing the leftists took in the 2010 mid term elections.
I raise this point because it proves this guy is a complete fool, he does not take in account the motivated voter on the Right, everyone of us, as compared to the pissed off lib that is unhappy with Husein.

Care to address this major point?

It walks like a lib, and it talks like a lib.

Quote from: kramarat on November 04, 2012, 12:24:51 PM
It walks like a lib, and it talks like a lib.

Of course....