This is what I worry about.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/september_2010/republicans_much_more_likely_than_democrats_to_consider_voting_for_an_independent_this_year

I think it sounds worse than it really is when you look at it without context. Crist losing in FL. Murkowski looks kinda close in the polls, but she is a write in candidate with a name like Murkowski in a state where a spelling error will disqualify the ballot. Mike Castle isn't running. I just don't see any independents capable of pulling off a Scuzafava this time around.

What I think the poll represents is a lingering hostility to a republican establishment that hasn't remained true to conservative values. So long as we learn from our past mistakes and hold true to our values, I think we will be fine.

I can't figure out if it's the more moderate rep or the more conservative who might jump ship.  I guess it would depend on the nominee and the state.  And of course, some people lie about which they'll vote. 

Quote from: crepe05 on September 30, 2010, 06:19:17 AM
I can't figure out if it's the more moderate rep or the more conservative who might jump ship.  I guess it would depend on the nominee and the state.  And of course, some people lie about which they'll vote.

The candidates out there running as independents are moderates who lost in primaries and they don't seem to be geting much traction. But the numbers you quoted look more like a ground swell of support. That's why I am assuming a disconnect. That the people willing to vote for an indpendent are fiscally conservative types who would vote for a Hoffman over a Scuzafava type. I could be wrong, but I don't see a massive moderate movement building up at the moment.  ;)

The worst thing we have to fear from the moderates is that they won't turn out in their typical numbers. But right now it appears they will be better represented in the upcoming vote than the libs.

I think the moderates will turn out if they don't think the election is a "given" for the reps, just as I think the conservatives will turn out if they don't think the election is a given for the reps.  I might be personalizing it a bit, though.  :D