The Hotline's Senate Race Rankings: Republicans in Command

Started by Solar, March 01, 2014, 08:56:38 AM

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Solar

Translation: TEA Is Taking Over.

A favorable map, public opinion against the president, and a glut of outside spending are boosting GOP fortunes across the country.

The 2014 Senate landscape continues to look challenging for Democrats. Republicans can take back the chamber after eight years of Democratic control with a net gain of six seats, and the seven seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats in states President Obama lost in 2012.

The most important change since we looked at the Senate map three months ago is the glut of outside spending, particularly against Democratic incumbents in the majority-making seats of North Carolina, Louisiana, and Alaska. The nonprofit, conservative group Americans for Prosperity has dumped tens of millions into those states, beating up incumbents who now have--at best--50/50 chances of retaining their seats.

Republicans are well positioned to win a Senate majority in 2014. A favorable map, combined with a positive national environment driven by disapproval of the health care law, have put Democrats on the defensive.

The rankings are best considered in tiers. The first two seats are very likely to flip, while in seats 3 and 4 Republicans are favored to take over. In seats 5 through 7, Democratic incumbents in red states are deeply vulnerable, and if Republicans win the top four, they need only two of the three seats in this tier to control the Senate.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline-on-call/the-hotline-s-senate-race-rankings-republicans-in-command-20140227
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jungle x

Yep, still so early,  but the numbers look good for a GOP takeover. It'd be funny to see Odumba throw another hissy fit over it. I hope the Tea Party wing waters down the GOPe bunch, or better yet, erase most of them and their power. McCain will still be doddering around, though. :mad:

supsalemgr

Quote from: jungle x on March 01, 2014, 06:55:20 PM
Yep, still so early,  but the numbers look good for a GOP takeover. It'd be funny to see Odumba throw another hissy fit over it. I hope the Tea Party wing waters down the GOPe bunch, or better yet, erase most of them and their power. McCain will still be doddering around, though. :mad:

It is looking good, but I am somewhat concerned about my home state of GA. The state is solidly conservative, but the GOP primary is shaping up as quite divisive with several conservative candidates. The dem challenger has name recognition and can pile up the cash while the pubs fight it out for the nomination.
"If you can't run with the big dawgs, stay on the porch!"