With all the hubbub about domestic issues lately, attention has strayed away from the situations in the Middle East.  Of major concern is the development of nuclear weapons by Iran and the instability this will cause in the region.  It is likely this will result in a race by neighboring nations to attain their own WMD.

Many like myself believed Israel would have struck Iran before now.  With elections approaching in the US it appears as if Israel may postpone the inevitable attack until after November.  The window of opportunity prior to the election is closing quickly.

It may be necessary for Israel to shore up its borders closer to home prior to strikes on Iran farther from home.  The situation in Syria and Egypt are of major concern being directly on their border.  The risk is getting bogged down in a regional conflict allowing Iran Carte Blanche to proceed towards defiance of the international community in developing nuclear weapons and further destabilizing the region.

I am of the opinion Israel can't wait until after the elections.  If signs appear the situation in Syria and Egypt are coming to resolution I believe Israel will take the opportunity shortly to make a preemptive strike.

Yeah, I don't think it's a question of if, rather when.
Israel will do what is in their best interest, regardless what the rest of the world wants.

I too am surprised they haven't taken them out yet, but then, they have people on the inside and know just how close Iran is to completion.
It's coming.

Maybe very soon!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/10/24/iran-bomb-one-month-away/3181373/

Israel has been upping their midair re-fueling capabilities, the Saudis's and the Gulf Arabs have lost any faith in Obama doing anything but talk, they will do it together and probably very soon. IMO

Quote from: Ek Ehecatl on October 24, 2013, 04:52:36 PM
Maybe very soon!

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/10/24/iran-bomb-one-month-away/3181373/

Israel has been upping their midair re-fueling capabilities, the Saudis's and the Gulf Arabs have lost any faith in Obama doing anything but talk, they will do it together and probably very soon. IMO

I hope they follow through.

Quote from: Solar on October 25, 2013, 06:38:09 PM
I hope they follow through.

They almost have to, Iran has been preparing for a couple of decades, they're capabilities as far as air power and missiles is nothing to take lightly, so it seems most unlikely that when (not if) the Israeli's and the Gulf Arabs move it would have to be a huge operation to take down the regime, timed with an internal uprising, otherwise it would end up a huge disastrous war..
The question is will Obumbler commit a couple of Carrier strike forces to the mission......who knows...

Quote from: Ek Ehecatl on October 26, 2013, 01:44:17 PM
They almost have to, Iran has been preparing for a couple of decades, they're capabilities as far as air power and missiles is nothing to take lightly, so it seems most unlikely that when (not if) the Israeli's and the Gulf Arabs move it would have to be a huge operation to take down the regime, timed with an internal uprising, otherwise it would end up a huge disastrous war..
The question is will Obumbler commit a couple of Carrier strike forces to the mission......who knows...

I wouldn't underestimate Israel, they are a far better trained and have a better supplied military, (thank US).
I honestly don't believe Iran will take them head on, they will use chemicals and suicide bombers in retaliation, depending on just how bad Israel cripples them.
Think 1967....

1967 didn't have hundreds if not thousands of missiles to fire off, and believe me I don't underestimate Israel, or Russia for that matter, we don't know what Iran has really do we?? It could be a clusterfuk.

Quote from: Ek Ehecatl on October 26, 2013, 02:39:06 PM
1967 didn't have hundreds if not thousands of missiles to fire off, and believe me I don't underestimate Israel, or Russia for that matter, we don't know what Iran has really do we?? It could be a clusterfuk.

Iran would not risk a major retaliation, it would be certain death for their very way of life.
Israel will only strike military targets, a retaliation from Iran would take innocent lives, and that would create serious backlash from the world, even if they are just a bunch of supposed hated Jews, the free world would side with Israel.

Quote from: Solar on October 26, 2013, 03:13:29 PM
Iran would not risk a major retaliation, it would be certain death for their very way of life.
Israel will only strike military targets, a retaliation from Iran would take innocent lives, and that would create serious backlash from the world, even if they are just a bunch of supposed hated Jews, the free world would side with Israel.

With all due respect, I'm not sure I agree Solar.  I acknowledge the price Israel will pay for failing to make a preemptive strike may be much higher than not.  However, Israel will pay a heavy price should they strike.  The Geopolitics of a preemptive strike won't be good for them.  Combined with the lack of ANY rational support from an anti-colonial US administration hell bent on eradicating any ability for future US considerations it doesn't look good for the region, let alone Israel.

While I do believe a strike is inevitable and on-the-horizon, Geopolitics alone will be damaging to Israel.  Any failure to completely eradicate Iranian nuclear capabilities with a first strike combined with interference from their "supposed" ally in the White House for follow-on strikes may make a nuclear Iran inevitable.  Should they succeed in taking out their targets (I am of the understanding this isn't likely without US support) Iran will be able to destabilize the region without nukes.

Iraq and other governments on the Arabian peninsula will be under intense pressure domestically to fall in line with Iranian pressure.  If you need an example understand the implications of the following FACT.

The reason every single nation was convinced Saddam had WMD was because Saddam deliberately attempted to make it APPEAR he had WMD's.  This was never considered a viable possibility among the various intelligence agencies.  Following Saddam's capture he was questioned intensely to reveal the location of his WMD's.  He insisted he had none.  Of course interrogators thought this a concealment.  Eventually the exhaustive searches made their existence unlikely.  It was eventually discovered why the intelligence was so wrong.  Why would Saddam deliberately attempt to make it appear as if he had WMD knowing this would risk Western retaliation?  Because he feared Iranian influence and internal destabilization more than he feared the US.  Fundamentalist intervention is guaranteed and a daily reality.  Self preserving sane US policy from this administration is tentative at best.

Quote from: LibDave on October 28, 2013, 01:38:02 AM
With all due respect, I'm not sure I agree Solar.  I acknowledge the price Israel will pay for failing to make a preemptive strike may be much higher than not.  However, Israel will pay a heavy price should they strike.  The Geopolitics of a preemptive strike won't be good for them.  Combined with the lack of ANY rational support from an anti-colonial US administration hell bent on eradicating any ability for future US considerations it doesn't look good for the region, let alone Israel.

Never said they wouldn't pay a price, I said Iran would because Israel is small and civilian casualties would be inevitable.

QuoteWhile I do believe a strike is inevitable and on-the-horizon, Geopolitics alone will be damaging to Israel.  Any failure to completely eradicate Iranian nuclear capabilities with a first strike combined with interference from their "supposed" ally in the White House for follow-on strikes may make a nuclear Iran inevitable.  Should they succeed in taking out their targets (I am of the understanding this isn't likely without US support) Iran will be able to destabilize the region without nukes.

They ill need our support in some areas, like AWACS, satcom, and resupplying, other than that, they can handle this without too much loss.

QuoteIraq and other governments on the Arabian peninsula will be under intense pressure domestically to fall in line with Iranian pressure.  If you need an example understand the implications of the following FACT.

But no one knows if it will make any difference once the campaign ends.
Don't assume this will go on for more than a few days, only if Iran retaliates, will it continue and don't assume Israel will play the tit for tat game.

QuoteThe reason every single nation was convinced Saddam had WMD was because Saddam deliberately attempted to make it APPEAR he had WMD's.  This was never considered a viable possibility among the various intelligence agencies.  Following Saddam's capture he was questioned intensely to reveal the location of his WMD's.  He insisted he had none.  Of course interrogators thought this a concealment.  Eventually the exhaustive searches made their existence unlikely.  It was eventually discovered why the intelligence was so wrong.  Why would Saddam deliberately attempt to make it appear as if he had WMD knowing this would risk Western retaliation?  Because he feared Iranian influence and internal destabilization more than he feared the US.  Fundamentalist intervention is guaranteed and a daily reality.  Self preserving sane US policy from this administration is tentative at best.

So went the liberal narrative, all the while ignoring the gas attack on the Kurds.
But were supposed to swallow the story that he was just bluffing?

Quote from: Solar on October 28, 2013, 06:34:47 AM
Never said they wouldn't pay a price, I said Iran would because Israel is small and civilian casualties would be inevitable.
They ill need our support in some areas, like AWACS, satcom, and resupplying, other than that, they can handle this without too much loss.
But no one knows if it will make any difference once the campaign ends.
Don't assume this will go on for more than a few days, only if Iran retaliates, will it continue and don't assume Israel will play the tit for tat game.
So went the liberal narrative, all the while ignoring the gas attack on the Kurds.
But were supposed to swallow the story that he was just bluffing?

If you look at it from the side of the Iranian regime a retaliatory strike would be more reward than price.  IMHO the rewards would far outweigh the cost.  The Obama administration has shown NO SIGNS there would be any price to pay whatsoever.  Obama has shown the opposite, taking every opportunity to punish Israel yet ignoring and even rewarding every transgression by the Islamists.

Remember too, domestically there is much reward for the regime.  Iran HAS no liberal opposition internally as we do.  While public support in the US would wane with civilian casualties, in Iran the infliction of civilian Israeli casualties would be a boon for the regime.  With a weak if not supportive administration in the White House externally and nothing but upside internally there is only reward not cost.

As I think we all agree, such a retaliation would by necessity be entirely subversive or insurgent.  Iran does not have the capability to retaliate militarily directly.  In fact from the regimes point of view, this would be the only possible downside.  An attempt to retaliate with direct missile strikes would certainly be ineffective and would make them appear impotent.  The last thing the Iranian regime can afford is to appear weak to a populous subjugated by fear.

It's not even assured Iran COULD inflict significant civilian casualties with direct missile strikes.  If you weren't aware, Iran is COMPLETELY ringed in with anti-missile defenses.  In fact, Iranian nukes are little threat to Israel and fast approaching little threat to their neighbors through direct strategic capability.  The threat Iranian nukes pose long-term is not by direct delivery, rather it is through subversive delivery and proliferation.

Geopolitically costs for Israel would be high.  US response alone would obviously be dire.  Obama's motivations and tendencies have left little doubt he harbors ZERO good will towards Israel.  While US alliance with Israel must publicly be maintained, this is clearly only pretense on the part of the Obama administration.  Obama seeks nothing less than the diminishment if not eradication of Israel.

Remember Obama sees US influence as the major evil in the world and Israel is the epitome of US influence in the region.  Obama is an anti-colonialist and considers his father's ideology his birthright.  He does not see Islamist extremism as the problem, he sees them as the natural progression of his mission to permanently extricate the US from interference in 3rd world affairs.  In addition he has little love for the Jewish faith, seeing them as an unwelcome occupier and evil religion.

Israel cannot expect and will not receive US support for Israeli preemptive action against Iran any time soon.  I believe a recent and little noticed development will bear this out.  Jordan recently gave Israel fly-over rights to Israel due to the conflict in Syria.  Little noticed because its importance in regards to the expansion of Israeli capability to strike Syrian targets is of little impact.

It is, however, of significance in regards to Israeli capability to strike Iran.  I look to Israel stepping up attacks on the Syrian regime increasing the utilization of the airspace.  Followed by the inevitable Iranian subversive responses.  One can expect some sort of terrorist response.  This will be the trigger Israel needs to take their shot.

I believe your assessment of the impacts on the election may be spot on.  It's one of the more difficult repercussions to assess.  It will indeed depend on the outcome and what transpires.  A short campaign would definitely be preferred as it would limit the possible impact.  But should conflict escalate I'm not sure anyone enjoys the omnipotence necessary to determine the outcome with any certainty.  All good plans of mice and men oft go astray.

I eagerly await the stomping like I do the Super Bowl.

You can't gang up and attack / try to destroy a country multiple times, and preach their eradication 24/7/365 for 50 years, without getting your ass kicked eventually.

It's too bad that the civilians and innocents will have to go along with the bad guys, but it's not Israel's doing.

50 years of hate, threats, violence, and agitation from the muslims, arabs, and persians.  End of story.  And it deserves a massive beating.

Israel strikes Russian weapons shipment in Syria


MIKE CORDER, AP
2 hours ago


snip~
BEIRUT (AP) — Israeli warplanes attacked a shipment of Russian missiles inside a Syrian government stronghold, officials said Thursday, a development that threatened to add another volatile layer to regional tensions from the Syrian civil war.

More @

http://xfinity.comcast.net/articles/news-general/20131031/Syria/