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Author Topic: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?  (Read 7783 times)

Offline AndyJackson

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2013, 09:49:37 AM »
woot woot, first down Israel on the  islam 20 yard line.......gonna try the statue of liberty play with a nuke in the passing hand.....

Offline Mountainshield

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2013, 03:37:03 AM »
Iran HAS no liberal opposition internally as we do.  While public support in the US would wane with civilian casualties, in Iran the infliction of civilian Israeli casualties would be a boon for the regime.

Thats not true, Iran has low national unity and much dissent, especially among young people epitomized in the green movement. This is not a country like Afghanistan where the society has been stagnant for 1000 years, but Iran have had a commercial westernized youth throughout the period under the Shah, the social implications of this period has created a youth and young adult population that far outnumber the older generations due to Iran-Iraq war. They care about liberty and want western lifestyle of good living standard.  Obama has already shown disgust and refused to acknowledge the existence of this movement, but that does mean that it is crushed. The infliction of civilian casualties would not be a boon for the regime, the Iranians are not savages, only communists are savage beasts and they Iranian leadership is communist with a islamic veil.

You keep saying Geopolitical costs, please specify the costs. The US response would be dire? What dire consequence are you referring to? A angry letter from Obama?

If Israel decide to strike Iran and only hurt military installations and bases it would destroy the Iran regime credibility in being able to defend the nation and remove the fear of the regime as they will be seen as weak and incompetent in not being able to fight back. If Israel would hit civilian iranians and only then would a "conflict" become beneficial to the iranian regime as the civilians would see Israel as the neemy just as the bay of pigs solidified Castro's regime in Cuba when he was infact fighting internal dissent up to that point.

Geopolitically the other regimes like Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia of the region would call for jihad and give hatefull speech at the same time they would congratulate Israel and shake hands in closed door bileratal meetings. I.e in Syria the Israelis and Saudis are on the same side, Saudi Arabia is the most powerfull arabian state and the most Israel friendly (not public but defacto).

Israel just attacked russian supplies and arms in Syria, but Syria did not declare war against Israel. I do not think Iran will be able to get nuclear weapons and if they will become like North korea but other nations like saudi arabia would not bow down before Iran as they would never ever use the weapons offensively.

Offline LibDave

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2013, 03:29:07 PM »
Thats not true, Iran has low national unity and much dissent, especially among young people epitomized in the green movement. This is not a country like Afghanistan where the society has been stagnant for 1000 years, but Iran have had a commercial westernized youth throughout the period under the Shah, the social implications of this period has created a youth and young adult population that far outnumber the older generations due to Iran-Iraq war. They care about liberty and want western lifestyle of good living standard.  Obama has already shown disgust and refused to acknowledge the existence of this movement, but that does mean that it is crushed. The infliction of civilian casualties would not be a boon for the regime, the Iranians are not savages, only communists are savage beasts and they Iranian leadership is communist with a islamic veil.

I don't see the Iranians as savages, but they do enjoy the support of Islamic radicals and the fundamentalist regime is as Islamic and radical as they come.  Those exposed to the Westernization under the Shah are not the younger generation, they are the older generation.  This segment of the older generation is without influence and control.  The younger generation you speak of has no such memory of the days of the Shah.  While there is much dissent (obviously) among the young (80% of the Iranian population is below age 25) I am unclear as to their motivations after having been heavily bombarded with radical Islamic indoctrination.

You keep saying Geopolitical costs, please specify the costs. The US response would be dire? What dire consequence are you referring to? A angry letter from Obama?

Obama has shown no propensity to confront radical Islam, terrorism, or any Western subversive group.  On the contrary, he sees them as his allies in his effort to take down Western capitalistic societies and end what he perceives as the major evil in the world, Western Capitalism.  Obama is an anti-colonialist.  He has stated this many times in his own writings.  He shares his "Father's Dreams" and his mission is to fulfill his father's dream to end "Western Colonialism".

Western Colonialism is no longer even based in reality as it ended for all practical purposes quite some time ago and had largely diminished even during Obama's father's lifetime.  Socialist influence has been the rule in Africa for over half a century as thriving Republicanism has taken a back seat.  Like his father Obama blames the poverty in 3rd world countries on outside Western interference instead of the true culprit, local corruption brought about by the failures of Socialism.

This is precisely why even many American's are perplexed by his actions (or should I say inactions such as Benghazi).  Many Americans mistakenly view him as a Black Liberal\Socialist.  He does not even share the typical American Black's Agenda (while he enjoys their blind na├»ve support).  He sees himself as a true African-American whose birthright is one of socialism.  Both his mother and father were socialists (worse, Marxist Leninists) and they went to no end exposing him to those of like political persuasion.  He wasn't even raised here.  He was raised as a radical Marxist-Leninist throughout his childhood having left the US at the age of 4.  For a large part of his life he didn't even go by the name of Barack Obama.  Returning to the name Barack Obama became a necessity as it was the name given to him at birth (his only claim to what we consider American).  He shares no ideological or nationalistic kinship with the US and he himself stated he felt out of place among American society except among those deemed societal outcasts as a young man (e.g. Bill Ayers, Salinsky, Reverend Wright, and many others).

Obama views capitalism's success resulting from the subjugation of the third world.  He seeks to take down Western Capitalism, permanently eradicating any future potential to influence world affairs, "returning the US to its rightful place as just another nation among the community of nations".  He rationalizes the obvious failures of socialism as a result of its inability to subjugate more than its fair share of the world's wealth.  He doesn't believe or understand it is the capitalism itself which is the SOURCE of the wealth.

So yes, even though there are no dire consequences for subversive enemies of the West, there ARE CONSEQUENCES for those who attempt to stand in the way of enemies of the West (such as Israel).  He has repeatedly placed Israel at great risk in response to any attempt on their part to shore up their security situation.  He views subversives and the overthrow of pro-western\capitalist governments as the natural progression of his purposeful policy to undermine Western society.  In fact, his break-neck race to undermine the financial stability of the US through deficit spending has more to do with taking down the US internally than making us socialist.  While he would like nothing more than a socialist US, being as this is likely beyond his capability, economic destruction will have to suffice.

If Israel decide to strike Iran and only hurt military installations and bases it would destroy the Iran regime credibility in being able to defend the nation and remove the fear of the regime as they will be seen as weak and incompetent in not being able to fight back. If Israel would hit civilian iranians and only then would a "conflict" become beneficial to the iranian regime as the civilians would see Israel as the neemy just as the bay of pigs solidified Castro's regime in Cuba when he was infact fighting internal dissent up to that point.

Geopolitically the other regimes like Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia of the region would call for jihad and give hatefull speech at the same time they would congratulate Israel and shake hands in closed door bileratal meetings. I.e in Syria the Israelis and Saudis are on the same side, Saudi Arabia is the most powerfull arabian state and the most Israel friendly (not public but defacto).

Israel just attacked russian supplies and arms in Syria, but Syria did not declare war against Israel. I do not think Iran will be able to get nuclear weapons and if they will become like North korea but other nations like saudi arabia would not bow down before Iran as they would never ever use the weapons offensively.

I agree with these last three paragraphs and your assessment of the Geo-politics of the region.  My only point of contention is your assessment of Iranian support.  True subversive strikes by Iran inside Israel against civilians might not bolster support among the pro-Western segments of Iranian society, they will bolster support among the regime's political base.

Offline Mountainshield

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2013, 03:16:11 AM »
I don't see the Iranians as savages, but they do enjoy the support of Islamic radicals and the fundamentalist regime is as Islamic and radical as they come.  Those exposed to the Westernization under the Shah are not the younger generation, they are the older generation.  This segment of the older generation is without influence and control.  The younger generation you speak of has no such memory of the days of the Shah.  While there is much dissent (obviously) among the young (80% of the Iranian population is below age 25) I am unclear as to their motivations after having been heavily bombarded with radical Islamic indoctrination.

I should have formulated myself better, what I meant is that the generations growing up under the Shah has transferred the western values and lifestyle over to their children which is what we saw with the green revolution. Like in the US the government employees, especially those in the EPA, IRS and other quasi tyrannical departments are hardcore socialist like the Revolutionary Guard in Iran is hardcore socialist, but the Iranian civilians are not hardcore socialists, and despite the islamo socialist indoctrination you saw with the green revolution that the young people are divided between the militant socialist and the western embracing youth. The green rebellion just like the white rebellion in russia was crushed by these socialists.

I agree with the rest of your post, especially regarding Obama's agenda.

As for the latter part, this is one reason I believe the US need to hold the burden of global liberty, not alone but it will have to do so disproportionately since the US is the only rival to Russia and China. And of course do so voluntarily, and by that I mean through congress and not presidential executive orders through UN resolutions.

The Green revolution would have won if the US had seized the opportunity and given the revolt arms or at least empathetic support in their fight for liberty. Even if the result would have been civil war it would be better than living under islamo-socialist oppression.

Offline LibDave

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2013, 09:54:57 AM »
I should have formulated myself better, what I meant is that the generations growing up under the Shah has transferred the western values and lifestyle over to their children which is what we saw with the green revolution. Like in the US the government employees, especially those in the EPA, IRS and other quasi tyrannical departments are hardcore socialist like the Revolutionary Guard in Iran is hardcore socialist, but the Iranian civilians are not hardcore socialists, and despite the islamo socialist indoctrination you saw with the green revolution that the young people are divided between the militant socialist and the western embracing youth. The green rebellion just like the white rebellion in russia was crushed by these socialists.

I hope you are right.  Historically there is a precedent for the suppressed ideologies of the older generation being passed down by the family.  It is difficult for these tyrannical governments to completely suppress as the family structure forms a shield of sorts allowing freedom of expression on a personal level.  We saw this in the east-bloc countries of Eastern Europe.  Your knowledge of whether this is the case amongst the youth of Iran is perhaps superior to mine.  I haven't lived there in almost 40 years, and it's been half that long since I lived in the neighboring regions.
I agree with the rest of your post, especially regarding Obama's agenda.

As for the latter part, this is one reason I believe the US need to hold the burden of global liberty, not alone but it will have to do so disproportionately since the US is the only rival to Russia and China. And of course do so voluntarily, and by that I mean through congress and not presidential executive orders through UN resolutions.

The Green revolution would have won if the US had seized the opportunity and given the revolt arms or at least empathetic support in their fight for liberty. Even if the result would have been civil war it would be better than living under islamo-socialist oppression.
I agree completely with this policy statement and your assessment of Obama's failure to support the Green revolution.  It was a missed opportunity of immense proportion.  But Obama see's it from the other side, as his loyalties aren't those most would assume of a POTUS.  He sees it as narrowly averting the rise of liberty, democracy and capitalism in the 3rd world countries of the Middle East.

I can't help but toot my own horn here.  I made this initial post a week before any mention of the Middle East in the MSM.  And my assessment of Obama's motivations and what his reaction would be were also SPOT ON.  The negotiations with Iran to temporarily lift the sanctions are absolutely the most ludicrous and destructive foreign policy one could imagine (provided you are actually developing a foreign policy intent on furthering US interests or the interests of freedom, democracy, and capitalism).  The announcement negotiations were taking place ALONE serves to prevent Israel from taking appropriate action as it would make them look bad.  Striking before negotiations can continue would make them appear to be the aggressor and unwilling to reach a peaceful settlement.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2013, 10:03:46 AM by LibDave »

Offline LibDave

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2013, 10:02:07 AM »
If Obama compounds the damage with an actual agreement to lift the sanctions (and I am convinced he will) Obama's loyalties will be clear.  It would be laughable if not so tragic.  It's like having a subversive in the White House conducting foreign policy in a manner diametrically opposing the furtherance of the country he professes to promote.  "Gee, the sanctions are working....  Lets lift them temporarily to give the radical Islamic Iranian regime a breather.  This way we know they will have to stamina to complete their mission to destabilize the Middle East with nuclear armaments and guarantee the destruction of rational Western influences towards peace."  It's just nuts to even entertain the idea of negotiations.  Treasonous!!!

Offline Egg

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #21 on: December 13, 2013, 01:11:06 PM »
I know I'm coming in late to this discussion, LibDave, but I generally do not expect Israel to do an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.  A number of reasons:

- Many sites are so deep underground they can't do it, unless they use US bunker buster missiles.  The US is against such an attack at this time and is very unlikely to sell those missiles to the IDF;

- Even with this new agreement allowing inspections, there may likely be other sites nobody knows about, i.e., the IDF wouldn't even know where to strike even if it wanted to.  A strike is either an all or nothing kind of thing;

- Many higher up Israelis are against such an attack, including many retired IDF generals and intelligence types.  They simply see too much downside to such an attack (like a massive war) while there being very little upside;

- All that such an attack could do is possibly post-pone an Israeli bomb.  Only a full invasion and occupation - I mean to say an honest to God, real, bloody, years-long war leading to the complete control of Iran by outside nations - could do the job, and there is nobody with enough soldiers or will power to do that. 

In other words, if we're really, really luckly Iran is going to come out of the cold and really undo its nuclear weapons program, or the world is going to have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran.

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #22 on: December 13, 2013, 07:58:12 PM »
It's a moot point. Iran now has in their eyes a legitimate nuclear program and the rest of the region will become nuclear. Thanks to years of naive policies culminating is Obama's complete and total surrender.

Offline Solar

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #23 on: December 14, 2013, 05:09:36 AM »
Of all the places on earth, Israel is the most vulnerable, with a Nation next door that's sworn to obliterate your complete existence, refuses to recognize your right to exist?

Yeah, Israel will stand by and do nothing. :rolleyes:
Get ready for 1967 revisited, only this time? I hope Israel keeps every inch of land they seize.
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Offline Egg

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #24 on: December 14, 2013, 08:13:13 AM »
I don't see how Israel could go in on the ground alone.  Iran is huge.

Offline Solar

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #25 on: December 14, 2013, 08:25:26 AM »
I don't see how Israel could go in on the ground alone.  Iran is huge.
Who said anything about a ground invasion? :biggrin:
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Offline the outlaw mortarman

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #26 on: December 14, 2013, 09:22:24 AM »
Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites? One can hope.

 :popcorn:
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Offline Montesquieu

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #27 on: December 16, 2013, 02:08:42 AM »
No, and here's why:

Israel cannot wipe out Iran's nuclear capability and it can't even be attempted without US assistance. The current US gov't will not lend it.

Second, Israel must be fully prepared to accept full scale war, which Iran will no doubt respond with. The intent of such a strike will be predicated on a demonstration to Iran that Israel wants to initiate a war over the issue. Israelis are tired of war, and Iran is far more powerful now than any traditional enemies from the past.

Third, global energy interests are fixated on that region. Be prepared for $6-7 gas at your local pump, maybe $8 in California, or closer to what Europe pays.

Fourth, it will be a PR disaster, and while that usually does not matter, absent US support will be devastating if Israel is faced with Iranian missiles.

Of course circumstances can change. If Israel is certain of an existential threat, i.e. Iran is for certain producing bombs and mounting them on missiles, it will do what it can even if only unilaterally.

Offline mdgiles

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #28 on: December 16, 2013, 08:08:32 AM »
I know I'm coming in late to this discussion, LibDave, but I generally do not expect Israel to do an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.  A number of reasons:

- Many sites are so deep underground they can't do it, unless they use US bunker buster missiles.  The US is against such an attack at this time and is very unlikely to sell those missiles to the IDF;
Do you seriously believe the Israelis couldn't build their own bunker busters?
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- Even with this new agreement allowing inspections, there may likely be other sites nobody knows about, i.e., the IDF wouldn't even know where to strike even if it wanted to.  A strike is either an all or nothing kind of thing;
The Israelis probably have the best intelligence apparatus in that part of the world. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the people working in these plants weren't israelis.
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- Many higher up Israelis are against such an attack, including many retired IDF generals and intelligence types.  They simply see too much downside to such an attack (like a massive war) while there being very little upside;
And they see no downside to letting the Mad Mullahs, have nukes. Israeli politicians my disagree, but - except for the radical left - none of them have a death wish.
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- All that such an attack could do is possibly post-pone an Israeli bomb.  Only a full invasion and occupation - I mean to say an honest to God, real, bloody, years-long war leading to the complete control of Iran by outside nations - could do the job, and there is nobody with enough soldiers or will power to do that.
The Israelis already have over 200 nuclear weapons, and have had them for years. Iran on the other hand is still trying to build one. And you don't have to invade Iran, to remove their ability to build nukes. You're giving the usual excuses: "doing something might prove dangerous".
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In other words, if we're really, really luckly Iran is going to come out of the cold and really undo its nuclear weapons program, or the world is going to have to learn to live with a nuclear Iran.
I prefer not to depend on "luck", when you're dealing with a group of eight century apocalyptics. 
"LIBERALS: their willful ignorance is rivaled only by their catastrophic stupidity"!

Offline Solar

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Re: Will Israel make a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear sites?
« Reply #29 on: December 16, 2013, 08:13:53 AM »
No, and here's why:


Explain how you know this to be fact, because by all accounts, Israel has the capability to level Iran, and yes, we gave them bunker busters.
So without proof, the rest of your post is pure speculation and opinion.
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