Author Topic: Too Hoard or not?  (Read 581 times)

Offline Hoofer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4278
  • Gender: Male
  • HAM Radio - the last form of free expression
Too Hoard or not?
« on: November 07, 2016, 10:24:22 AM »
Food for thought

http://thefederalist.com/2016/11/07/hoarding-food-gold-will-not-help-emergency/
Quote
Historical experience indicates that economic downturns typically bring falling food prices. In the Great Depression, the value of the dollar rose and food prices crashed. In the United States, the price index for “food at home” fell from a pre-Depression peak of 48.3 in 1929 to a Depression-era low of 30.6 in 1933—a 36 percent drop. Even though mild price inflation resumed in 1934 with FDR’s abandonment of the (domestic) gold standard, food prices remained depressed below their 1920s level for the entire Depression decade.

Those who held cash were therefore well-positioned to continue feeding their families even if they faced unemployment, as 25 percent of American workers did by 1933. While overall production—especially of durable and capital goods—did drop markedly during these years, the economy did by no means grind to a halt. Enough grocers, butchers, and restaurants survived to ensure ongoing, orderly food markets.

A simple cash hoard thus would have sufficed for sustaining a family through episodes of hardship, with the added advantage of portability and negligible risk of sudden or massive losses in value due to inflation.

Problem I have with this - we're more than half-way into a cash-less economy, and precious few know how to barter on a one-on-one basis, or with the grocery store (wallmart).  Even fewer of us are the actual food producers, nor do those who grow produce food across the diet spectrum.

Since the author uses some Scripture, so will I - we are suppose to prepare for winter or times of less, a common sense thing.
Quote
Proverbs 6:6-8King James Version (KJV)
Go to the ant, thou sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise: Which having no guide, overseer, or ruler, Provideth her meat in the summer, and gathereth her food in the harvest.
And of course, the author failed to mention Joseph who upon God's warning, set aside 7 years of plenty for the coming 7 years of famine.  If that's not hoarding - I don't know what to call it!

Today, the BIGGER problem, often overlooked, never mentioned - 97% of us make up the consumer based society, and less than 3% us are the actual producers of food. 

1790 almost 90% of the workforce were farmers. 
1890 or 100 years later, the frontier was settled, with 43% still farming, an average or 147 acres. 
1990 or 100 years later, almost in the present, 2.6% are farming an average of 431 acres each.

In a SHTF scenerio, do even HALF of the 97% non-farmers know how/have they attempted to grow a basic garden?
If you gave them seed potatoes, already cut, ready to plant, or a bag of beans, bag of corn, a couple of packets of lettuce - could they grow anything, or just cook and eat the seeds?

In the Author's description of the 1930's Great Depression, 21% were farming an average of 157 acres - we are nowhere near that today.

In addition, we are VERY, very inter-dependent for any kind of food production.  Big farms need big tractors, fuel to run them, seed & fertilizer - which all comes from somewhere else.  Canning factories & huge storage facilities exist elsewhere, because farmers are best at "farming" with minimal post processing.  The farmer's products are shipped all over the place too!  What does a modern Milking farm do with 20,000 gallons of milk per day and no way to get it processed and sold?

Quote
In the United States, the price index for “food at home” fell from a pre-Depression peak of 48.3 in 1929 to a Depression-era low of 30.6 in 1933—a 36 percent drop. Even though mild price inflation resumed in 1934
Sure, 1-in-5 are growing food in 1930, by 1990 it's 1-in-38... I see a bigger problem than the author - it's the farmer-to-consumer-path has too many "middle-men" and there are big distances between them!
All animals are created equal; Some just take longer to cook.   Survival is keeping an eye on those around you...

Offline Solar

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56650
  • Gender: Male
Re: Too Hoard or not?
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 01:36:38 PM »
What makes this even scarier, is that most farms are owned by big Ag, controlled by computers via satellite with one guy sitting in his kitchen controlling it all.
Granted, not all, but by 2025 the majority of farmers left will be simply maintenance for the vehicles.

What happens if we have a massive solar flare/EMP? Look for that three day supply at the grocery store to empty out the first day, looting the next day, pandamonium to follow.
Of course that'll always happen if people panic, and with the Internet down, power off, cell towers going off line because battery backup failing.
It won't be pretty.
Koolaid is for kids, TEA is for adults

Offline Hoofer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4278
  • Gender: Male
  • HAM Radio - the last form of free expression
Re: Too Hoard or not?
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2016, 03:39:48 PM »
What makes this even scarier, is that most farms are owned by big Ag, controlled by computers via satellite with one guy sitting in his kitchen controlling it all.
Granted, not all, but by 2025 the majority of farmers left will be simply maintenance for the vehicles.

What happens if we have a massive solar flare/EMP? Look for that three day supply at the grocery store to empty out the first day, looting the next day, pandamonium to follow.
Of course that'll always happen if people panic, and with the Internet down, power off, cell towers going off line because battery backup failing.
It won't be pretty.

Exactly!
There are multiple steps from the ground where the food is grown to the dining room table, and a big distance between them... which is why I contend, "you can't eat gold and silver to survive".

If the SHTF, and I had a big farm and two guys showed up to trade for an elevator of grain - one with a tanker truck of diesel and the other with a pile of gold bullion - it'd be an easy choice, I'll take the diesel.   When there isn't anything to buy with gold, it's just "pretty to look at."

It is a rather curious thing, the bigger farms might grow 3 or 4 different row crops in rotation, and that's it.   
A little backyard garden might have a dozen or more crops, maturing at all different times or seasons.

Under the right market conditions, one can make an awful lot of money, while the other might keep you alive for months, if you stay put.


But... if you need to move, and the cars/trucks don't run, a trained horse, with saddle and bridle is priceless.
All animals are created equal; Some just take longer to cook.   Survival is keeping an eye on those around you...

Offline Solar

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56650
  • Gender: Male
Re: Too Hoard or not?
« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2016, 04:34:50 PM »
Exactly!
There are multiple steps from the ground where the food is grown to the dining room table, and a big distance between them... which is why I contend, "you can't eat gold and silver to survive".

If the SHTF, and I had a big farm and two guys showed up to trade for an elevator of grain - one with a tanker truck of diesel and the other with a pile of gold bullion - it'd be an easy choice, I'll take the diesel.   When there isn't anything to buy with gold, it's just "pretty to look at."

It is a rather curious thing, the bigger farms might grow 3 or 4 different row crops in rotation, and that's it.   
A little backyard garden might have a dozen or more crops, maturing at all different times or seasons.

Under the right market conditions, one can make an awful lot of money, while the other might keep you alive for months, if you stay put.


But... if you need to move, and the cars/trucks don't run, a trained horse, with saddle and bridle is priceless.
Tis true, gold is burdensome in weight, and you can't eat it. If SHTF and the future for recovery is a long way off, that gold won't get you anything but hungry, while food and antibiotics do carry far more value value, as does a skill or a dozen skills.
If I stumble onto someone broken down on the road and can repair their mode of transportation, I can set my price.
But a pound of gold will do neither of us any good if neither of us can't fix his buggy.

Sometimes the most obscure or innocuous of items may carry high value, a travel sewing kit, a toothbrush, tobacco a reloader with ammo, powder, caps and shells could put you into business, and again, you could name your price, or you could barter it off for a cow.
Fuel may seem expensive now, but just imagine the price it would bring if there is none?

I agree, gold and minerals won't be worth dirt if SHTF. I don't know if it'll happen in my lifetime, but I guarantee you, it will come one day.
Koolaid is for kids, TEA is for adults

Offline Solar

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56650
  • Gender: Male
Re: Too Hoard or not?
« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2016, 04:34:50 PM »
Exactly!
There are multiple steps from the ground where the food is grown to the dining room table, and a big distance between them... which is why I contend, "you can't eat gold and silver to survive".

If the SHTF, and I had a big farm and two guys showed up to trade for an elevator of grain - one with a tanker truck of diesel and the other with a pile of gold bullion - it'd be an easy choice, I'll take the diesel.   When there isn't anything to buy with gold, it's just "pretty to look at."

It is a rather curious thing, the bigger farms might grow 3 or 4 different row crops in rotation, and that's it.   
A little backyard garden might have a dozen or more crops, maturing at all different times or seasons.

Under the right market conditions, one can make an awful lot of money, while the other might keep you alive for months, if you stay put.


But... if you need to move, and the cars/trucks don't run, a trained horse, with saddle and bridle is priceless.
Tis true, gold is burdensome in weight, and you can't eat it. If SHTF and the future for recovery is a long way off, that gold won't get you anything but hungry, while food and antibiotics do carry far more value value, as does a skill or a dozen skills.
If I stumble onto someone broken down on the road and can repair their mode of transportation, I can set my price.
But a pound of gold will do neither of us any good if neither of us can't fix his buggy.

Sometimes the most obscure or innocuous of items may carry high value, a travel sewing kit, a toothbrush, tobacco a reloader with ammo, powder, caps and shells could put you into business, and again, you could name your price, or you could barter it off for a cow.
Fuel may seem expensive now, but just imagine the price it would bring if there is none?

I agree, gold and minerals won't be worth dirt if SHTF. I don't know if it'll happen in my lifetime, but I guarantee you, it will come one day.
Koolaid is for kids, TEA is for adults

Offline Hoofer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4278
  • Gender: Male
  • HAM Radio - the last form of free expression
Re: Too Hoard or not?
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2016, 06:12:57 AM »
Tis true, gold is burdensome in weight, and you can't eat it. If SHTF and the future for recovery is a long way off, that gold won't get you anything but hungry, while food and antibiotics do carry far more value value, as does a skill or a dozen skills.
If I stumble onto someone broken down on the road and can repair their mode of transportation, I can set my price.
But a pound of gold will do neither of us any good if neither of us can't fix his buggy.

Sometimes the most obscure or innocuous of items may carry high value, a travel sewing kit, a toothbrush, tobacco a reloader with ammo, powder, caps and shells could put you into business, and again, you could name your price, or you could barter it off for a cow.
Fuel may seem expensive now, but just imagine the price it would bring if there is none?

I agree, gold and minerals won't be worth dirt if SHTF. I don't know if it'll happen in my lifetime, but I guarantee you, it will come one day.

Those who can produce a needed product, probably will do just fine.  They might not have gold and silver to begin with, but after awhile, might have a pile of it from selling cows, pigs, chickens, eggs, grain/flour, etc.   A single cow or pig has limited value, a reproducing small herd is quite manageable, and keeps reproducing or producing more "product" to sell.  For that matter, small animals are great (eggs from chickens & ducks).  Pigs & cows are easy if you have good fences/pastures, and of course the climate that gives pasture access 9-10 months of the year.

The grain crops almost always require diesel or gas to plant, cultivate, harvest and process.  Amish & Mennonite folks might be just fine, not so good for the rest of the farmers with few helpers and expansive crop land - they'd take a tanker of diesel over a stack of gold.  Bottom line is simply, if nobody is doing the farming on a large scale, it wouldn't matter how rich the folks in the cities are.
All animals are created equal; Some just take longer to cook.   Survival is keeping an eye on those around you...

 

Powered by EzPortal