Author Topic: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics  (Read 1180 times)

Online Solar

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Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« on: May 02, 2017, 01:50:42 PM »
No, not an error, an On Purpose!

A mistake in climate model architecture changes everything. Heat trapped by increasing carbon dioxide just reroutes to space from water vapor instead.

The scare over carbon dioxide was just due to a simple modelling error. A whole category of feedbacks was omitted, which greatly exaggerated the calculated sensitivity to carbon dioxide.

http://sciencespeak.com/climate-basic.html
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Online walkstall

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2017, 02:01:04 PM »
No, not an error, an On Purpose!

A mistake in climate model architecture changes everything. Heat trapped by increasing carbon dioxide just reroutes to space from water vapor instead.

The scare over carbon dioxide was just due to a simple modelling error. A whole category of feedbacks was omitted, which greatly exaggerated the calculated sensitivity to carbon dioxide.

http://sciencespeak.com/climate-basic.html

a simple modelling error.    :rolleyes: 
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Offline Hoofer

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2017, 02:56:46 PM »
a simple modelling error.    :rolleyes:

Even good math, as they say, can "model" incorrectly with just a few variables.
Just saw what a very expensive "modeling program" did to a known working device basically said it would never work.
Some people stake their reputations & careers on computer modeling.

As for me, all that old time mechanical stuff from the industrial revolution - is genius borne of necessity, this new stuff is mindless speculation.

After visiting an old-timer Steam & Power show, I wonder if we're really smarter than those 100 years ago.
I get the answer from the May Day protesters... intelligence escapes them, like steam in the wind.
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Online Solar

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2017, 03:22:12 PM »
Even good math, as they say, can "model" incorrectly with just a few variables.
Just saw what a very expensive "modeling program" did to a known working device basically said it would never work.
Some people stake their reputations & careers on computer modeling.

As for me, all that old time mechanical stuff from the industrial revolution - is genius borne of necessity, this new stuff is mindless speculation.

After visiting an old-timer Steam & Power show, I wonder if we're really smarter than those 100 years ago.
I get the answer from the May Day protesters... intelligence escapes them, like steam in the wind.
Good point. Accumulated knowledge built upon previous generations is not proof of wisdom in the current generation.
We've failed the newest generations by not teaching critical thinking...
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Offline NH_RetiredIT

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2017, 04:17:13 AM »
Any theory, including AGW, should first be examined from the standpoint if inquiry and skepticism.  This was circumvented by the
"debate is over, the science settled" meme.  Among the reasons for skepticism:

1) humans are only responsible for app. 4% of all CO2 output.  The oceans dominate with regard to this.
2) CO2 is more of a lagging than a leading indicator of climate change -- oceans, again, dominate here.
3) Even the I.P.C.C. admits that CO2's relationship to warming (assuming there is any) is logarithmic, with decreasing added effect per quantum added.
4) Global warming has paused while CO2 levels have increased markedly.
5) The climate is so complex that we may never be able to accurately predict it.
6) Cyclical factors, solar and oceanic, have shown a strong correlation to climate change in recent centuries.

With so many reasons to question the AGW theory for which the alarmists have no answer, it is quite reasonable to question the intellectual honesty of those being funded to make these claims, and the highly inaccurate models they use.

Online walkstall

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2017, 01:09:45 PM »
Any theory, including AGW, should first be examined from the standpoint if inquiry and skepticism.  This was circumvented by the
"debate is over, the science settled" meme.  Among the reasons for skepticism:

1) humans are only responsible for app. 4% of all CO2 output.  The oceans dominate with regard to this.
2) CO2 is more of a lagging than a leading indicator of climate change -- oceans, again, dominate here.
3) Even the I.P.C.C. admits that CO2's relationship to warming (assuming there is any) is logarithmic, with decreasing added effect per quantum added.
4) Global warming has paused while CO2 levels have increased markedly.
5) The climate is so complex that we may never be able to accurately predict it.
6) Cyclical factors, solar and oceanic, have shown a strong correlation to climate change in recent centuries.

With so many reasons to question the AGW theory for which the alarmists have no answer, it is quite reasonable to question the intellectual honesty of those being funded to make these claims, and the highly inaccurate models they use.

A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession.  I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.  ~ Ronald Reagan ~

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

Online Solar

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2017, 01:33:42 PM »
Any theory, including AGW, should first be examined from the standpoint if inquiry and skepticism.  This was circumvented by the
"debate is over, the science settled" meme.  Among the reasons for skepticism:

1) humans are only responsible for app. 4% of all CO2 output.  The oceans dominate with regard to this.
2) CO2 is more of a lagging than a leading indicator of climate change -- oceans, again, dominate here.
3) Even the I.P.C.C. admits that CO2's relationship to warming (assuming there is any) is logarithmic, with decreasing added effect per quantum added.
4) Global warming has paused while CO2 levels have increased markedly.
5) The climate is so complex that we may never be able to accurately predict it.
6) Cyclical factors, solar and oceanic, have shown a strong correlation to climate change in recent centuries.

With so many reasons to question the AGW theory for which the alarmists have no answer, it is quite reasonable to question the intellectual honesty of those being funded to make these claims, and the highly inaccurate models they use.
Spot on and welcome.
Let's start with cutting funding to the UN, NASA needs a bit of realigning as well, like getting back to actual science.
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Offline Hoofer

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2017, 02:35:28 PM »
Good point. Accumulated knowledge built upon previous generations is not proof of wisdom in the current generation.
We've failed the newest generations by not teaching critical thinking...

Knowledge or Data?

Who is smarter with a computer?   The guy who programs line-upon-line in Assembly language, or the guy who drags and drops functions and libraries from a "visual" programming language?   Maybe I should pose the question as, who "understands" the computer, and who works within the limits of "predefined functions"?

When I started a BBS, we had to write code for serial ports, monitors, keyboard inputs, etc., and even build multiple databases, accessible several different ways.   My programmer kid's eyes glaze over when I start talking nuts-n-bolts, but, they still crank out some nice looking (and code bloated) graphical stuff.

Talk about hardware control - and they run to the Internet for device driver help...

I believe THIS seperation from the actual hard data, tends to produce desired (intended) results - rather than factual, provable, reliable data.   They stick an array of sensors in areas known for high pollutants, high humidity, excessive CO2 (airports, along highways, near coal & NG power plants) - and expect to get "average" readings...?   Well, the first time we get a "cold snap" the microclimate CO2 levels skyrocket from everything generating extra power, catylitic converters operating less efficient - then when it warms up, "Ah HA!!!   We recorded record CO2 levels, and look what happened, it got warmer!  Oh My God!!!"
Rather than put the data collection devices in well moderated locations, the stick those things where only the extremes exist.

The EPA recently ordered a transcontential natural gas supplier to install environmental monitoring equipment at a gas pumping station, not far from me.   So what...?   They were ordered to install it, just inside the driveway, between the parking lot and where they burn/vent off gas when working on the pipes.   50' in any direction and you're smak in the middle of a tailpipe!  Of course it looks bad, what did they expect!?!?!

They ask us, "please don't idle your trucks in this area", and the Porta-john guys, "move those things at least 100' away from this area."

IN case you didn't guess, this is the OBAMA EPA regulations - and it's making the cost of Natural Gas artificially HIGHER than it needs to be.
All animals are created equal; Some just take longer to cook.   Survival is keeping an eye on those around you...

Online Solar

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2017, 03:10:31 PM »
Knowledge or Data?

Who is smarter with a computer?   The guy who programs line-upon-line in Assembly language, or the guy who drags and drops functions and libraries from a "visual" programming language?   Maybe I should pose the question as, who "understands" the computer, and who works within the limits of "predefined functions"?

When I started a BBS, we had to write code for serial ports, monitors, keyboard inputs, etc., and even build multiple databases, accessible several different ways.   My programmer kid's eyes glaze over when I start talking nuts-n-bolts, but, they still crank out some nice looking (and code bloated) graphical stuff.

Talk about hardware control - and they run to the Internet for device driver help...

I believe THIS seperation from the actual hard data, tends to produce desired (intended) results - rather than factual, provable, reliable data.   They stick an array of sensors in areas known for high pollutants, high humidity, excessive CO2 (airports, along highways, near coal & NG power plants) - and expect to get "average" readings...?   Well, the first time we get a "cold snap" the microclimate CO2 levels skyrocket from everything generating extra power, catylitic converters operating less efficient - then when it warms up, "Ah HA!!!   We recorded record CO2 levels, and look what happened, it got warmer!  Oh My God!!!"
Rather than put the data collection devices in well moderated locations, the stick those things where only the extremes exist.

The EPA recently ordered a transcontential natural gas supplier to install environmental monitoring equipment at a gas pumping station, not far from me.   So what...?   They were ordered to install it, just inside the driveway, between the parking lot and where they burn/vent off gas when working on the pipes.   50' in any direction and you're smak in the middle of a tailpipe!  Of course it looks bad, what did they expect!?!?!

They ask us, "please don't idle your trucks in this area", and the Porta-john guys, "move those things at least 100' away from this area."

IN case you didn't guess, this is the OBAMA EPA regulations - and it's making the cost of Natural Gas artificially HIGHER than it needs to be.
Take the jet for example, engineers designed it, mechanics maintain it, but just because someone can fly it, by no means is a demonstration of intellect, just recall when taking a test.

Point being, these people writing programs are either the equivalent of simple pilots or, as proven, people with an agenda or both.
But just writing simple code to get the answer you seek, is by far easier than writing code so an AI can think independently and beyond its restrictions.

This is why I get so pissed at morons claiming the "Science Proves It". it only proves that anyone can program in the garbage and get garbage back.
I find it really hard to believe a so acclaimed "Scientist in the field of climate" wrote the code, no, he told the tech what he wanted it to show and nothing more.
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Offline Hoofer

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2017, 12:10:38 PM »
Take the jet for example, engineers designed it, mechanics maintain it, but just because someone can fly it, by no means is a demonstration of intellect, just recall when taking a test.

Point being, these people writing programs are either the equivalent of simple pilots or, as proven, people with an agenda or both.
But just writing simple code to get the answer you seek, is by far easier than writing code so an AI can think independently and beyond its restrictions.

This is why I get so pissed at morons claiming the "Science Proves It". it only proves that anyone can program in the garbage and get garbage back.
I find it really hard to believe a so acclaimed "Scientist in the field of climate" wrote the code, no, he told the tech what he wanted it to show and nothing more.

You just hit on it!   I coded almost 7 days a week for 8-10 years on that BBS, and everytime I wrote to obtain a desired result.   I don't know HOW one would ever write code for anything BUT a desired result.

To MAKE SURE they get the desired result, the sensors are placed in locations which would heavily skew the data towards their result.   There's nothing objective or scientific about that kind of data collection at all.
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Offline NH_RetiredIT

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2017, 12:43:14 PM »
Indeed, the primary source of global warming is cooked theory, most notable the water vapor amplification myth, which increases the alleged CO2 warming per quantum by a factor of 2 - 3.  Computer models incorporate this.

The problem with this theory is that we have not witnessed this amplified warming from previous CO2 increases.  We should have warmed about 6 - 7 degrees F since 280 ppm, not the 1 degree or so that was observed.  So why would this amplified warming occur from future CO2 increases?  They can only answer with "the debate is over, the science is settled".  In other words, fall in line and stop asking questions.

Here is a more plausible explanation of what has been going on with the climate:


« Last Edit: May 04, 2017, 12:47:25 PM by NH_RetiredIT »

Offline Hoofer

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2017, 03:25:35 PM »
Indeed, the primary source of global warming is cooked theory, most notable the water vapor amplification myth, which increases the alleged CO2 warming per quantum by a factor of 2 - 3.  Computer models incorporate this.

The problem with this theory is that we have not witnessed this amplified warming from previous CO2 increases.  We should have warmed about 6 - 7 degrees F since 280 ppm, not the 1 degree or so that was observed.  So why would this amplified warming occur from future CO2 increases?  They can only answer with "the debate is over, the science is settled".  In other words, fall in line and stop asking questions.

Here is a more plausible explanation of what has been going on with the climate:



$15 billion in funding, and NOBODY looked into climate cycles!?!?!?!?!?!?

Based on Solar Activity, prior cycles of Solar Wind, we are entering into a cooling cycle.
gee... they changed the name just in time, from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change"...
No change from CO2, all change is natural.... (like Democrats finding new ways to raise taxes.)

Thanks for posting the link to the video, great stuff!
All animals are created equal; Some just take longer to cook.   Survival is keeping an eye on those around you...

Online Solar

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2017, 03:37:18 PM »
$15 billion in funding, and NOBODY looked into climate cycles!?!?!?!?!?!?

Based on Solar Activity, prior cycles of Solar Wind, we are entering into a cooling cycle.
gee... they changed the name just in time, from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change"...
No change from CO2, all change is natural.... (like Democrats finding new ways to raise taxes.)

Thanks for posting the link to the video, great stuff!
Yep, it was never about science.
Make that 15 Billion to prove a theory. They didn't look to see if it's possible there were other factors, such as wobble, distance between earth and the sun, as in cycles, no, those were never once to be included in the equation, which is why physics was misapplied in their model.
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Online walkstall

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2017, 06:34:06 PM »
Yep, it was never about science.
Make that 15 Billion to prove a theory. They didn't look to see if it's possible there were other factors, such as wobble, distance between earth and the sun, as in cycles, no, those were never once to be included in the equation, which is why physics was misapplied in their model.


There was nothing misapplied in their model.  They knew what they were doing.  Just like setting up test stations in very hot areas. 
A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession.  I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.  ~ Ronald Reagan ~

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

Offline Hoofer

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Re: Climate Scientists Misapplied Basic Physics
« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2017, 02:14:44 PM »

There was nothing misapplied in their model.  They knew what they were doing.  Just like setting up test stations in very hot areas.

What kind of "scientist" allows him/herself to get swept up into obvious ERROR?
As much as I don't like the idea, how can a scientist put their career & credibility on the line for political correctness?
...and if Al Gore had championed the next coming ICE AGE, they would have said the crisis is Global Cooling?
All animals are created equal; Some just take longer to cook.   Survival is keeping an eye on those around you...

 

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