Part 3 - I think.... really liking his explanations. Toy
Dr. Brent Reifsteck
The biggest reason I agree to talk to these folks whenever I am invited is the same reason I started posting in the first place:
Panic comes from fear.
Fear comes from lack of information or wrong information.
We are being fed too much wrong information from too many folks. I do not want any of you to feel fearful, and I don’t want you to panic. We fight fear with information.
We fight Trixie with hand sanitizer.
We don’t fight Coco. She just thinks we are playing with her, and then she bites us.
Alright, Today’s numbers:
World total: 415,876 (up 43,313)
World deaths: 18,574 (rate = 4.47%)
USA total: 53,368 (up 11,304)
USA deaths: 698 (rate = 1.31%)
IL total: 1,535 (up 250)
IL deaths: 16 (rate = 1%)
You’ve done a good job hanging in there, class. I don’t know if you have noticed, but I’m long-winded.
(I just heard a GASP and a sarcastic “You Don’t SAAAYY!!!” with an eye roll. You get detention)
Anyway, we have talked a LOT about this Coronavirus.
We talked about how it’s a single-stranded RNA virus with a protein envelope with spikes sticking out (making it look like a crown or “corona”)
We talked about how it invades our cells, replicates, and causes infection.
We talked about how the immune system fights it off, and how much more difficult that is when a large, sudden genetic change happens (Genetic Shift) instead of a slow change over time (Genetic Drift).
We talked about how this large change can happen when a virus we KNOW infects another species of animal (like a pig, bat, or pangolin) then moves back into a human. This makes the virus look, to our bodies, like an entirely new (or “novel”) virus.
We talked about testing & treatment yesterday.
So, what happens next?
Well, a pretty large statistical paper was published about a week ago telling us just who was at highest risk.
Based on the 53,000 patients in the 30 studies that were included in the statistics, here are some details:
Mean age was 49.8 years & 55.5% of the patients were male.
20.2% of folks developed Severe disease (which means that 79.8% of patients were diagnosed, and only had mild to moderate symptoms).
Mortality rate in this analysis was 3.1% which means that in the population of 53,000 patients with Coronavirus in the 30 studies that they combined into this analysis, only 3.1% of them died. Flip that to survivors: 96.9% survived.
I share this to give you hope. We will get through this.
Who is most likely to develop severe disease?
If you are MALE, you are 1.35 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you are 50 or older, you are 2.61 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you are 60 or older, you are 9.45 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you are a SMOKER, you are 1.7 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you have Chronic Kidney Disease, you are 6 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you have COPD, you are 5.3 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you have High Blood Pressure, you are 4.5 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you have cardiovascular disease, you are 6.75 times more likely to develop severe disease.
If you have DIABETES, you are 4.4 times more likely to develop severe disease.
Do any of the above categories apply to you?
Even though we know that most folks don’t progress, and we know that most recover, please do not be a statistic.
Physical distancing “flattens the curve” with the goal of avoiding overwhelming medical resources.
It also protects you individually.
If the above does NOT apply to you… I bet you know and maybe even LOVE someone that fits in one or more categories putting them at higher risk. You adhere to physical distancing for THEM, and for all of us.
You notice that I am using the term “physical distancing” instead of “social distancing.” I thank Marcie Crowley for pointing out that my friends in the Psychology / Psychiatry fields are very concerned for our mental and emotional well-being during this time, and I totally agree! Some folks, when they think of distancing socially, they cut themselves off totally, and become isolated. This illustrates two points:
1. We have to stay connected. You DESERVE to stay connected! Connections enhance us. We have so many more ways to stay connected in our modern world, so use them!
2. This time is different than most anything we have experienced in our lives, and has the potential to be scary. How much more scary is it if you also feel alone?
So, distance physically to stay safe. Connect socially to stay well.
Two final questions: When will this end? & Can I catch it again?
Well, the endpoint of this stage is really hard to see from here. It will depend on numbers here and numbers elsewhere as well as the severity of disease being experienced by patients everywhere. Epidemiologists will help us use the numbers we are seeing and interpret them properly to make good decisions. I could predict right now, and I would likely be wrong. So, it’s better to wait and see, which is not a super satisfying answer, and I understand that.
Patience my friends… every day gets us a little closer, as long as we are all doing our parts.
As far as catching it again, this is also a “we aren’t sure yet” answer. Like we discussed before, usually our immune system develops antibodies to protect us from ever getting an infection again. However, if that infection mutates into something the looks different, you may not be immune any longer. The good news is that even if the organism mutates, we still have SOME protection, and the next one isn’t as bad. So, we hope for “never again” but might have to settle for “not as bad this time around”.
That’s enough for today friends. I leave you with the attached picture and a big “thank you” to Christi Horein Kearns and the Elle Project for her generosity and general awesomeness. She made this mask for me, and plenty of other masks for others. You are a selfless and generous person, and I appreciate you!
I appreciate ALL of you friends! See you tomorrow!
