Will The Republicans Ever Figure Out Why They Lost?

Started by SmilinJack, December 28, 2012, 02:29:50 PM

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Indy

Quote from: SmilinJack on December 28, 2012, 02:29:50 PM
I do not think so....one would think that some of their high priced political consultants with a few of their math wizards would be able to correctly analyze the election results and thus it seems on the surface like a no brainer.

But.................to those who know why it is obvious the big boys have not figured it out or if they have....they do not want to admit it.
Simple answer. Voter fraud and a complicit MSM.

SmilinJack

No....Florida went for Obama unfortunately.

I am enjoying reading the different responses to why the Republicans lost the Presidential race. 

I will give my opinion on that after some more results come in...I am hoping to see one pop up that will agree with me....I do not want to be the Lone Ranger on here.  heh heh

Well...I am a new poster and so far this seems like a good board...I am used to posting on liberal boards and having to deal with a bunch of communists and moderators who only enforce the rules against conservatives. 

BTW will i have to solve the puzzle everytime I post on here.......my eyes arnt what they used to be and I have a problem reading those letters....

SmilinJack

I will just throw out this tidbit for now....it might help some in their analysis of the Presidential election............the mexican vote did not win it for Obama.........that is a current big liberal myth...I have the stats to disprove that.

Regretably I fear the Republicans are going to get more politically correct based on some faulty assumptions many have in regards to why Obama won.

The republicans as of yet are being misled by the mass media in regards to the election........why would anyone listen to the enemys interpetation and suggestions on what the Republicans need to do to win next time?  Apparantly many otherwise intelligent Republicans are going along with the media on this....the same ones I suppose that let the media select Romney as  a candidate.  I said from the very beginning that those debates with all the candidates at the same time would only allow the media to destroy the candidates one by one and the last one standing would be the medias choice....and yes Romney was selected by the media.  Suprise....Suprise

Solar

Pubs lost because they continually capitulate to the left, they ignored and insulted the Tea party, thinking they could draw moderates under what they claim to be the big tent, when in reality, the base, or rather majority in this country wants a Conservative leader.
In a nutshell, the base sat home in droves.

The mid term election of 2010 is proof the base wants the RINO out!
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Solar

And the questionaire should only show once.
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Patriot

I think there are several reasons for the loss including the influence of the media and the number of those dependent on govt programs.  The media not only reinforced a major Democratic theme, that they were for the middle class and the GOP was for the wealthy, but willingly supported lies and inaccurate statements about Romney.  I think another factor is what I outlined in the following thread.  I don't think its message is all that popular here.   Given that it was my first thread on this board and I wasn't banned, I think speaks to the openness of this board for debate as well as discussion.

http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/political-discussion-and-debate/future-of-the-gop-and-its-advocacy-of-social-values/msg103503/#msg103503

walkstall

Quote from: USAPatriot on December 29, 2012, 09:43:05 AM
I think there are several reasons for the loss including the influence of the media and the number of those dependent on govt programs.  The media not only reinforced a major Democratic theme, that they were for the middle class and the GOP was for the wealthy, but willingly supported lies and inaccurate statements about Romney.  I think another factor is what I outlined in the following thread.  I don't think its message is all that popular here.   Given that it was my first thread on this board and I wasn't banned, I think speaks to the openness of this board for debate as well as discussion.

http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/political-discussion-and-debate/future-of-the-gop-and-its-advocacy-of-social-values/msg103503/#msg103503


As I said when you ask, as long as your not a troll and willing  to discussion as well as debate with facts and data.  You would be safe on this board. 
A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

supsalemgr

Let's not forget the GOP vote was less than in 2008. This surprised me knowing how so many of us really wanted to defeat Obama. The dems did a better job of getting the vote out. I am not saying this is the resoan, but I would not be surprised if some folks just couldn't get over that Romney is a Mormon.
"If you can't run with the big dawgs, stay on the porch!"

SmilinJack

The Main Reason Obama Won.............The White Working Class did not vote overwhelmingly for Romney....though he got most of their votes he did not get the huge majority of them he needed..........way too many of them voted for Obama because the Republicans as usual had nothing to offer the White Working Class but a little lip service.

Now the above sounds very simple and it is....so simple in fact the majority of White Folk just do not get it..........they will write it off as being racist..........irregardless of that...it does not matter.....what does matter is the ramifications of white folk letting the minorities and the media decide the course of this nation.

If the White Working Class does not step up to the plate and damn soon and take control of this country they can fawgetttttt about every thing they think America is, should be and is capable of being...because folks this country will go down the toilet if you let the minorities control its destiny.

The elections statistics prove the White Working Class was the key to the election....if the White Working Class had voted en masse Republican like the minorities did for the democrats we would have had a Repubilican Victory and a President who would not have been a lame duck like obama.........say what you will about Romney and I did not particuarly like him..........but there is no doubt he would have had a much better capability to get this country moving...now instead we are stuck with no leadership in the White House and we drift from disaster to disaster...............thats what happens folks when you let the fools run the country.

SmilinJack


By ALLISON KOPICKI and WILL IRVING


In the wake of the 2012 presidential election, there has been extensive discussion about the Republican Party's failure to appeal to Hispanic voters, whether this failure was responsible — at least in part — for Mitt Romney's defeat, and whether a change in immigration policy would be sufficient to shift the Latino vote rightward in the next election.

It is difficult and rather foolhardy to try to forecast the political circumstances of the 2016 presidential election. However, it is possible to assess just how pivotal the Hispanic vote was to President Obama's Electoral College success this year and what that might mean for future elections.

Looking at actual vote counts and the exit poll results from the recent election can provide insight into answering two important questions: First, was Mr. Obama's electoral victory dependent on high Hispanic turnout and support from a large percentage of the Hispanic vote? And second, if the Hispanic vote did prove decisive in the outcome, how easy would it be for a Republican candidate to gain a significantly greater share than Mr. Romney in future elections, assuming the Republicans agree to some type of comprehensive immigration reform?

Exit polls conducted by Edison Research provided an estimate of the percentage of total votes that were cast by Hispanics in the nine so-called swing states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. In order to determine if the Hispanic vote was a pivotal factor in Mr. Obama's victory, we applied these estimates to the combined total votes cast for all candidates to calculate the total number of Hispanic voters in each of these states.

Exit polls also provided estimates of the percentages of the Hispanic vote that went to Mr. Obama and to Mr. Romney in key swing states. In states where polling data on the two candidates' shares of the Hispanic vote were not available, we allocated the national Hispanic support level of 71 percent to Mr. Obama, and the remaining 29 percent to Mr. Romney.

By then removing the number of Hispanic votes from each candidate's vote total and reallocating them back to the two candidates in order to equalize their total votes, one can determine what percentage of the Hispanic vote Mr. Obama needed to carry each of the key states. For example, in Wisconsin, 3,056,613 votes were cast, of which 4 percent, or 122,264 votes, were cast by Hispanics according to exit polls. Mr. Obama's margin of victory in Wisconsin was over 200,000 votes — even if all Hispanics had voted for Mr. Romney instead of voting for Mr. Obama by more than two to one, he would have won the state.

Not unexpectedly, the Hispanic vote was also not decisive in Iowa or New Hampshire where Mr. Obama could have carried the states even if he had won none of the Hispanic vote whatsoever.

In Ohio, where the president received an estimated 54 percent of the Hispanic vote, according to exit poll data, we find he could have won the state with as little as 22 percent of the Hispanic vote, and in Virginia, where he received 64 percent of the Hispanic vote, we find that he could have carried the state with just over 33 percent.

It is also worth noting that in states that were not considered battleground territory, Mr. Obama could still have won without a majority of the Hispanic vote. In California, Mr. Obama took the state's 55 electoral votes with 72 percent of the Hispanic vote, but could have won with as little as 25 percent. And in Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), where Mr. Obama received an estimated 80 percent of the Hispanic vote, he could have still carried the state with just over 37 percent.

With these five swing states, along with the safe Democratic states that Mr. Obama should have carried regardless of the Hispanic vote, the president would have reached 283 electoral votes, winning the Electoral College without needing to win a majority of the Hispanic vote in each state.

In the remaining swing states – Nevada, Florida and Colorado – along with New Mexico, Mr. Obama did require a majority of the Hispanic votes cast in order to carry those states, although the shares he achieved still exceeded the threshold minimums he needed. In Colorado, where Mr. Obama received an estimated 75 percent of the Hispanic vote, we estimate that he could have won with just over 58 percent, and in Nevada, where he won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, he could have carried the state with just under 54 percent. In the key battleground of Florida (29 electoral votes), Mr. Obama's 60 percent share of the Hispanic vote was just above the 58 percent share required for victory in that state.

In New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Colorado, slightly higher shares (but still less than a majority) of the Hispanic vote could have swung them to Mr. Romney, and this may well put these states in play in the next election if the Republican candidate and platform have broader appeal among Hispanic voters.

Which brings us to our second question: Would a revamping of the Republicans' immigration policy be sufficient to cause Hispanics to shift to the Republican Party?

The exit poll results suggest that the Republicans' assertion that Hispanics are socially conservative is not necessarily true.

Two-thirds of Hispanic voters said that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, compared with slightly more than half of white voters, according to exit poll results. Hispanics were also more liberal when it came to same-sex marriage, with 59 percent saying it should be legal in their state, compared with 51 percent of blacks and 47 percent of white voters.

Exit poll results also indicate that Hispanics are not necessarily racing to adopt the Republican platform of smaller government. Nearly 6 in 10 Hispanics said Mr. Obama's health care law should be expanded or left as is, compared to about a third of white voters. And 57 percent of Hispanics said that government should be doing more to solve the problems of individuals, compared to 36 percent of whites. Hispanics, like the rest of the electorate, were also in favor of raising income taxes in order to reduce the federal deficit.

So for any Republicans crafting a strategy that focuses solely on Hispanic voters and immigration policy in order to win back the White House in 2016, they may want to re-examine this year's exit poll results.
//

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



November 20, 2012, 4:16 pm 41 Comments

Assessing How Pivotal the Hispanic Vote Was to Obama's Victory

By ALLISON KOPICKI and WILL IRVING


In the wake of the 2012 presidential election, there has been extensive discussion about the Republican Party's failure to appeal to Hispanic voters, whether this failure was responsible — at least in part — for Mitt Romney's defeat, and whether a change in immigration policy would be sufficient to shift the Latino vote rightward in the next election.

It is difficult and rather foolhardy to try to forecast the political circumstances of the 2016 presidential election. However, it is possible to assess just how pivotal the Hispanic vote was to President Obama's Electoral College success this year and what that might mean for future elections.

Looking at actual vote counts and the exit poll results from the recent election can provide insight into answering two important questions: First, was Mr. Obama's electoral victory dependent on high Hispanic turnout and support from a large percentage of the Hispanic vote? And second, if the Hispanic vote did prove decisive in the outcome, how easy would it be for a Republican candidate to gain a significantly greater share than Mr. Romney in future elections, assuming the Republicans agree to some type of comprehensive immigration reform?

Exit polls conducted by Edison Research provided an estimate of the percentage of total votes that were cast by Hispanics in the nine so-called swing states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. In order to determine if the Hispanic vote was a pivotal factor in Mr. Obama's victory, we applied these estimates to the combined total votes cast for all candidates to calculate the total number of Hispanic voters in each of these states.

Exit polls also provided estimates of the percentages of the Hispanic vote that went to Mr. Obama and to Mr. Romney in key swing states. In states where polling data on the two candidates' shares of the Hispanic vote were not available, we allocated the national Hispanic support level of 71 percent to Mr. Obama, and the remaining 29 percent to Mr. Romney.

By then removing the number of Hispanic votes from each candidate's vote total and reallocating them back to the two candidates in order to equalize their total votes, one can determine what percentage of the Hispanic vote Mr. Obama needed to carry each of the key states. For example, in Wisconsin, 3,056,613 votes were cast, of which 4 percent, or 122,264 votes, were cast by Hispanics according to exit polls. Mr. Obama's margin of victory in Wisconsin was over 200,000 votes — even if all Hispanics had voted for Mr. Romney instead of voting for Mr. Obama by more than two to one, he would have won the state.

Not unexpectedly, the Hispanic vote was also not decisive in Iowa or New Hampshire where Mr. Obama could have carried the states even if he had won none of the Hispanic vote whatsoever.

In Ohio, where the president received an estimated 54 percent of the Hispanic vote, according to exit poll data, we find he could have won the state with as little as 22 percent of the Hispanic vote, and in Virginia, where he received 64 percent of the Hispanic vote, we find that he could have carried the state with just over 33 percent.

It is also worth noting that in states that were not considered battleground territory, Mr. Obama could still have won without a majority of the Hispanic vote. In California, Mr. Obama took the state's 55 electoral votes with 72 percent of the Hispanic vote, but could have won with as little as 25 percent. And in Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), where Mr. Obama received an estimated 80 percent of the Hispanic vote, he could have still carried the state with just over 37 percent.

With these five swing states, along with the safe Democratic states that Mr. Obama should have carried regardless of the Hispanic vote, the president would have reached 283 electoral votes, winning the Electoral College without needing to win a majority of the Hispanic vote in each state.

In the remaining swing states – Nevada, Florida and Colorado – along with New Mexico, Mr. Obama did require a majority of the Hispanic votes cast in order to carry those states, although the shares he achieved still exceeded the threshold minimums he needed. In Colorado, where Mr. Obama received an estimated 75 percent of the Hispanic vote, we estimate that he could have won with just over 58 percent, and in Nevada, where he won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, he could have carried the state with just under 54 percent. In the key battleground of Florida (29 electoral votes), Mr. Obama's 60 percent share of the Hispanic vote was just above the 58 percent share required for victory in that state.

In New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Colorado, slightly higher shares (but still less than a majority) of the Hispanic vote could have swung them to Mr. Romney, and this may well put these states in play in the next election if the Republican candidate and platform have broader appeal among Hispanic voters.

Which brings us to our second question: Would a revamping of the Republicans' immigration policy be sufficient to cause Hispanics to shift to the Republican Party?

The exit poll results suggest that the Republicans' assertion that Hispanics are socially conservative is not necessarily true.

Two-thirds of Hispanic voters said that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, compared with slightly more than half of white voters, according to exit poll results. Hispanics were also more liberal when it came to same-sex marriage, with 59 percent saying it should be legal in their state, compared with 51 percent of blacks and 47 percent of white voters.

Exit poll results also indicate that Hispanics are not necessarily racing to adopt the Republican platform of smaller government. Nearly 6 in 10 Hispanics said Mr. Obama's health care law should be expanded or left as is, compared to about a third of white voters. And 57 percent of Hispanics said that government should be doing more to solve the problems of individuals, compared to 36 percent of whites. Hispanics, like the rest of the electorate, were also in favor of raising income taxes in order to reduce the federal deficit.

So for any Republicans crafting a strategy that focuses solely on Hispanic voters and immigration policy in order to win back the White House in 2016, they may want to re-examine this year's exit poll results.

supsalemgr

I couldn't agree with you more. Instead of limiting it to "White Working Class" it should apply to just the "working class". If one takes a look at the full range of Obama's programs and intentions it does not take a genius to figure the working class is going to take a hit. They don't understand the ramifications of all the regulations and their impact on the working class. WHEN, not IF, the inflation hits from all this printed money the working class is the one group that will feel it the most.
"If you can't run with the big dawgs, stay on the porch!"

Solar

Quote from: supsalemgr on December 29, 2012, 10:42:58 AM
Let's not forget the GOP vote was less than in 2008. This surprised me knowing how so many of us really wanted to defeat Obama. The dems did a better job of getting the vote out. I am not saying this is the resoan, but I would not be surprised if some folks just couldn't get over that Romney is a Mormon.
That's my point, the base stayed home. I've read where a large amount of people have had it, period.
They will not be voting for another RINO, ever.
Mormon may have played a small part, but I can't imagine it really made that big of a difference.

It's sad, and I did vote against the Marxist, while holding my nose voting for a RINO.
But apparently there were far more willing to compromise for a third time.
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SmilinJack

Quote from: supsalemgr on December 29, 2012, 10:55:39 AM
I couldn't agree with you more. Instead of limiting it to "White Working Class" it should apply to just the "working class". If one takes a look at the full range of Obama's programs and intentions it does not take a genius to figure the working class is going to take a hit. They don't understand the ramifications of all the regulations and their impact on the working class. WHEN, not IF, the inflation hits from all this printed money the working class is the one group that will feel it the most.

The 'minorities'  working class are well satisfied with the democrats.....but you are correct the 'working class' as a whole will suffer under obama.

Yet there is no hope of attracting the 'minority' voters...they vote enmasse democratic and will continue to do so.

The White Working Class is the key to regaining the White House....if the republican party can be persuaded of that fact....they may not....they may be unreachable and I would predict they will continue to only give lip service to the White Working Class and in fact will probably get even more politically correct than they already are aka the john mcains and those of his ilk.

Thus it is my conclusion that the White Working Class needs to form its own party...they should be focused on finding a leader....one preferably not too old and with some charisma and ability to appeal to the White Working Class who essentially are without representation in Washington.

The democrats have sold out to the minorities completely and the republicans favor the rich and are way tooooo politically correct.

But one cannot really blame the White Working class fleeing the democratic party after they sold out to the minorities and becoming Reagan democrats.  The truth is though the White Working Class does not belong in the Republican Party...unless they can totally transform it into a party that is truly their advocate.

The White Working Class(and I include in that group those White Folk who are unemployed) have the numbers needed to win the white house if they organize and vote enmasse for their candidate like the minorities do for their candidate.

Thus they are the key to any party that wants to win the White House.

Solar

Quote from: SmilinJack on December 29, 2012, 11:31:29 AM
The 'minorities'  working class are well satisfied with the democrats.....but you are correct the 'working class' as a whole will suffer under obama.

Yet there is no hope of attracting the 'minority' voters...they vote enmasse democratic and will continue to do so.

The White Working Class is the key to regaining the White House....if the republican party can be persuaded of that fact....they may not....they may be unreachable and I would predict they will continue to only give lip service to the White Working Class and in fact will probably get even more politically correct than they already are aka the john mcains and those of his ilk.

Thus it is my conclusion that the White Working Class needs to form its own party...they should be focused on finding a leader....one preferably not too old and with some charisma and ability to appeal to the White Working Class who essentially are without representation in Washington.

The democrats have sold out to the minorities completely and the republicans favor the rich and are way tooooo politically correct.

But one cannot really blame the White Working class fleeing the democratic party after they sold out to the minorities and becoming Reagan democrats.  The truth is though the White Working Class does not belong in the Republican Party...unless they can totally transform it into a party that is truly their advocate.

The White Working Class(and I include in that group those White Folk who are unemployed) have the numbers needed to win the white house if they organize and vote enmasse for their candidate like the minorities do for their candidate.

Thus they are the key to any party that wants to win the White House.
I'm beginning to sense a tad bit of racist theme here.
Just More 'Teen' Crime...at least according to the Media

You are welcome to post, but be aware, racism will not be tolerated.
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SmilinJack

Do you consider it racist to report minority crimes?