Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 02:08:43 PM
Very early in Maine. Only 5% in. Thats a nice lead but Im not reading much into it with only 5% in.

Well, no candidate in any race this cycle has come back from being 10+ points down with 5% counted. Maine wasn't polled, but it isn't a good fit for Cruz. That result seems especially significant to me. I expected Cruz to win Kansas (not double up on Trump, which is amazing), but not the other three states today. One note of caution is that both Maine and Kansas are not only closed, but caucus states. That's Cruz's best set-up, because of the his organization and the level of commitment/enthusiasm in his supporters.

I'm looking forward to seeing results out of Louisiana. Adequate polling was done there, with Trump up about 15. A Cruz win there will show that the last debate was a calamity for Trump......perhaps the straw that broke the camel's back.

Edit: I'm seeing only several hundred votes counted for Maine, so I don't think that's really 5%. In that case, I share Mr. Conservative's caution.

Quote from: Bowhntr on March 05, 2016, 02:15:34 PM
No...I'm from North Carolina.  Junction City/Fort Riley is a HIGHLY military area and this is a closed contest.  It should give a better indicator of military support as opposed to SC's open primary.

OK, gotcha. That would be a useful indicator.

Is there a reason they havent called Kansas??? 50% of the vote in and Cruz is up by 24 points!

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 02:32:39 PM
Is there a reason they havent called Kansas??? 50% of the vote in and Cruz is up by 24 points!

Is it possible they dont have all the number crunchers working today analyzing every poll and demographic?  I was wondering the same thing!

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 02:32:39 PM
Is there a reason they havent called Kansas??? 50% of the vote in and Cruz is up by 24 points!

Was that a sonic BOOM!

Naaa.... just the sound of a Trump Tower falling.

Kids are Celebrating at CPAC...!

Kansas called!!  Cruz WINS!!!

 Kansas Republican
43% in (Too Early to Call)
Mar 5 2016, 5:34 pm ET


Ted Cruz             49%

Donald Trump     25%

Marco Rubio        15%

John Kasich         10%

Ben Carson           1%




54% in Mar 5 2016, 5:51 pm ET

Ted Cruz               51%    (Projected Winner)

Donald Trump       24%

Marco Rubio         14%

Fox calls Kansas for Cruz.

Too bad Kansas isn't one of those states with a 50% threshold. Many of the "proportional" states only assign delegates proportionally until a candidate hits 50% of the vote, either statewide or by congressional district. Kansas isn't one of those. Cruz seems to have been a bit unlucky so far in regard to delegate rules.

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on March 05, 2016, 03:08:04 PM
Too bad Kansas isn't one of those states with a 50% threshold. Many of the "proportional" states only assign delegates proportionally until a candidate hits 50% of the vote, either statewide or by congressional district. Kansas isn't one of those. Cruz seems to have been a bit unlucky so far in regard to delegate rules.

Yes, but we'll take 'er!!

Very interesting night so far.......................................

Still see that Maine only showing 5% in. But Cruz is speaking as if he has won Maine already.

Am I missing something?

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 03:18:31 PM
Still see that Maine only showing 5% in. But Cruz is speaking as if he has won Maine already.

Am I missing something?

I've heard that exit polling is VERY favorable to Cruz in both Maine and Kentucky!!!

What's up with Kentucky? 

They're doing a caucus this year (one time only?) and were supposed to close at 4 pm.

http://www.wcpo.com/news/political/local-politics/kentucky-gop-caucus-means-long-lines-bad-traffic

Quote from: mrconservative on March 05, 2016, 03:18:31 PM
Still see that Maine only showing 5% in. But Cruz is speaking as if he has won Maine already.

Am I missing something?

All I see is   7% in  Mar 5 2016, 4:50 pm ET

Ted Cruz               48%

Donald Trump       35%

Marco Rubio           9%

John Kasich           7%


Ben Carson           0%

Maine doesn't official close until 7 pm.