I think it is informative article. View from russian side on turkish provocation
Original article in russian    http://cont.ws/post/153938

Computer translation:

The origins and meaning of the Turkish provocation

In early spring 2014, when the Crimea was already a Russian, and the civil war in the Ukraine had only just begun, and many thought that the worst can be avoided, I had a few articles and commentaries noted that the actions of the US and EU in Ukraine has all the hallmarks of a provocation , evident purpose of which is the involvement of Russia in the war. Then I said that if someone wants involve someone into war, then sooner or later he will do it, the only question is when and how.

Since then, almost nothing has changed, except for one thing - increased stakes. In the spring of 2014 the US and EU together were trying to dragg Russia into the war in Ukraine, hoping that it will link Russia's resources, and then they themselves perform at a convenient time, in a convenient location and easy will achieve geopolitical gain.

Now we are talking about the fact that the United States, in an attempt to involve Russia in the war, willing to sacrifice their allies of the EU and NATO.


It was then, when Turkish provocation was born. The fact that this is a provocation prepared in advance, I have no doubt.

I can believe that the Turkish media professional operators happen accidentally to be in a right place from which it was possible to film attack on Russian bomber, they just aim lenses in the right spot, at the right moment. Anything can happen.

But the official version of events provided by the Turkish authorities, irrefutably confirmed as the provocative actions of the Turkish Air Force fighters, and the fact that the decision to organize a provocation was made by the first persons of the country.

The Turks can not deny, that the plane crashed in Syrian territory. They also shot and they also published footage, that the aircraft crashed immediately after the rocket hit the airplane. So,that is not the case when, for example, they struck it near Ankara, and it just flew for a long time, until it fell. So, even if the plane violated the airspace of Turkey, it would have lasted a matter of seconds, and a blow to him was deposited when it was clearly in the airspace of Syria.

Such an attack could be partially justified if Russian bomber struck the Turkish territory and then flew  back abroad. But it didn't happen, and a short intersection of the line of the air border is difficult even to accurately fix.

However, according to the official version in Ankara, the Turkish Air Force ten times within five minutes  warned the crew of the Su-24, that it fly in the wrong place, and only after that, it was shot down. And they managed to have time to get the sanction from the Prime Minister - Ahmet Davutoglu said that he personally ordered the attack on the bomber.

It is obvious that the Turks were counting on a very definite  response from the West, when the EU and the United States, contrary to the facts, take an anti-Russian version, even if it is refuted by the facts.

When it became clear that the West has critical attitude to the Turkish position, that neither NATO nor the EU can not give unanimous support to Ankara, that the US alone (without Europe) does not perform, Erdogan tried to upgrade the version. The new version of the aircraft was in the airspace of Turkey from 7 to 17 seconds, and was shot down before could be determined it's type and nationality.

The ends does not meet in the Turkish version . The pilots did not know who they shot down, but Turkish general staff immediately reported that Russian bomber shot down. The prime minister was informed that they were going to destroy some unknown aircraft - and he immediately gives the go-ahead, in the region, where Russian, USA, France and even Canada  planes fly. Only aircraft of ISIS don't. The main thing, that to raise air fighters, 10 times warn unknown airplain, and obtain the prime minister authorization to shoot down the aircraft,  all this the Turks, according to Erdogan, manage to do in no more than in 17 seconds.

In general, they were preparing provocation, calculated on one information and political support and get different one, and got confused. Above all, Putin said that the Russian bomber had not crossed the border into Turkey. Russian President can not be wrong, publicly assessing the situation that could lead to a military conflict between Russia and NATO. He is not Erdogan.

Who commands the parade?

Let us ask ourselves the question. Could the Turks do such a provocation, without coordination with the senior partners? If it was a spontaneous decision in a critical situation, I would say that Erdogan and his team are capable of taking ill-confrontational solutions. But we have noted that the provocation was prepared ahead of time. These were not acts of passion. It was a cold-blooded deliberate and planned murder.

Ankara, as well as Tbilisi in 2008, rely on the protection of US and NATO. The grounds of the Turks was more than the Georgians had - Turkey is NATO member. But the result turned out the same. US walked away and pretended that they were innocent. Erdogan trushed about, but it was too late.

Now many experts talk about how Russia will close the sky of Syria with S-400, arm the Kurds and beat Turkey  (not immediately, but soon). I think that the talk about tough measures is premature. Yes, the air defense group will be strengthened, and aircraft, representing a potential threat to Russian planes can be shot down. Yes, Russia will try to take the sky of Syria under tighter control. Yes, unwritten economic sanctions against Turkey have already begun to act. But in terms of who, whom, how and against whom will be armed, it is necessary to wait and think.

Of course, the evaluation of the president of Russia, called the actions of Ankara's "stab in the back" and the Foreign Minister, who accused Turkey of aiding terrorists are unprecedentedly harsh for modern Russia and commit to concrete actions. But for all these measures wouldn't be beneficial to enemies, still good to find out who and why framed Erdogan.

And Erdogan was framed. He was persuaded to attack the Russian forces (to commit an act of unprovoked aggression, giving a reason for a military response) and left alone on this own.

Country, that could provide such guarantees to Erdogan, who persuaded him to attack the Russians, could only be the United States (the others can not do guarantee such a thing with the case of Russia).

In 2014 in Ukraine the US could be expected that Russia will react to the coup and the beginning of the civil war with the Georgian scenario and send troops.

But in 2015 in Syria, Washington is clearly could not count on the spontaneous reaction of Russia. Start a war with Turkey immediately Moscow could not, simply because at first it is necessary to take out the tourists, then create and deploy a group capable to defeat not a weak Turkish army, to provide logistics (including Syria, due to the inevitable closure of the straits in case of war ), and only then proceed to action. All this requires not one week time actually - two or three months at least, six months and even-year.

Consequently, spontaneous conflict between Russia and Turkey, the US is not expected. Just as unlikely that they hoped that the EU and NATO would be seriously impressed by clumsy Turkish lies and rushed to rescue Ankara from Moscow.

But Washington is actively trying to play with the Kurds. Kurds dream of Kurdistan. Kurdish territory in Syria and Iraq have enjoyed fairly wide autonomy. In Iran, the Kurds population is much smaller, and the problem is not as acute. But Turkey is controlled about 50% of the potential areas of Kurdistan, and its own territory is home to 40% of the Kurds (and now, given the refugees, may already be 60%). Turkey - the only country, several decades leading the war with the Kurds, and on the territories of Syria and Iraq, too. Plans of Ankara and Washington about the Kurds diverge diametrically.

Washington can not openly oppose its NATO ally and publicly support the forces fighting for the dismemberment of the Turkish state. But now the Kurds could rush to ask for weapons, funding and support from Russia, hoping that Moscow is easy to agree to help the enemies of their enemy.

And the Turks do not liked by not only the Kurds. Armenians remember not only the genocide of 1915-1917, but the Turkish blockade of Armenia in connection with the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. And they will certainly remember that the Great Armenia at the times of Tigran II the Great, had the outlet to the Black, Caspian and Mediterranean Seas, and the Armenian kingdom of Cilicia lasted until 1515. And the massacre of greeks in Smyrna have not forgotten, nor the desire to return Constantinople is not lost. So, willing to take part in the partition of Turkey will be plenty enough, and all of them will come to Russia for help in their just struggle.

It's only begining

The destabilization of Turkey is not in Russia's interests. But its transformation into a branch of the ISIS is worse. So it is possible that someone will have to help in the restoration of historical justice. For example, today by many in the Russia, establishment of the Greek-Armenian borders in Asia would be perceived as good, though not the fact that the recovery of the borders of the Byzantine era  Greece or a return to the borders of Armenia of Tigran II will make  these countries reliable partners for Russia. And views of US on Kurdish statehood  does make you think, who really could be the main beneficiary of the Russian-Turkish confrontation.

In general, I repeat, if main  task - to draw Russia into war exist - provocations will continue. From whom expect the next one(from Turkey, Ukraine, the Baltic states) - is unknown. However, in regard to a particular Russian-Turkish crisis caused by the attack on the Russian plane, everything has just begun. More tourists will leave from Turkey, another economic ties will be cut, the Foreign Ministry  still will require an apology. The question may be consider with the UN Security Council. And will be plenty of  visits to Moscow for money and weapons  from all the sides, who would like to finally solve the Turkish question.

Time to make a decision about how to respond to the provocation of Ankara, with protecting our interests, and making such a warning, that nobody dare to repeat provocation, we have. In the meantime, Russia has already used the situation to strengthen its position in Syria. After the implementation of the General Staff intentions completely cover the sky of Syria by Russian air defense systems and to increase the number of fighters based in Hmeymim base, permission to fly in Syrian airspace will have to be asked by the French and the Americans and all those who will be there willing to fly. Just to make sure that thay are not taken for "aircraft carrying a potential threat to Russian planes." And Turkey is unlikely to be able to continue to participate actively in the Syrian settlement.

But we are only at the beginning of the process. We have not escaped the war, only postponed it. And the trick is that in these circumstances, for Erdogan (provocation with the Su-24 that seriously undermine its domestic position and the position of Turkey in the international arena) war may be the best way possible. If it did achieve a war with Russia, the problem will come to another level. To decide on his fate NATO would have, and within the Turkey he will rely on the consolidation of society for the sake of resistance to the enemy. For him, it is extremely risky, but chance. Same as to Poroshenko, risky, but the only solution for him is the resumption of the war in the Donbass.

If Erdogan and Poroshenko be able to agree on concerted action, the US dream can become a reality - Russia will face the prospect of simultaneously being drawn into a military conflict with Ukraine and NATO countries (Turkey). Fashists and muslim nationalists.

So do not wait for the Russian leadership of simple linear solutions. The situation on the world chessboard becomes confusing. US offers to sacrifice more and more of its allies. Sooner or later, we will have to take a sacrifice. Better to do it in the right time.

There are nuggets of truth in the article, but the simple fact was Russia was looping-in-and-out of Turkish airspace to strafe Turkman anti-Assad forces within Syria. 

Besides, Russia and Turkey (Ottoman Empire) have been fighting since the 16th-Century.  Russia's achieved quite a few victories over Turkey through the years.  Some probably instigated over the same tactic in-reverse.   

Quote from: kalash on November 27, 2015, 03:10:15 AM
I think it is informative article. View from russian side on turkish provocation
Original article in russian    http://cont.ws/post/153938

Computer translation:

The origins and meaning of the Turkish provocation

In early spring 2014, when the Crimea was already a Russian, and the civil war in the Ukraine had only just begun, and many thought that the worst can be avoided, I had a few articles and commentaries noted that the actions of the US and EU in Ukraine has all the hallmarks of a provocation , evident purpose of which is the involvement of Russia in the war. Then I said that if someone wants involve someone into war, then sooner or later he will do it, the only question is when and how.

Since then, almost nothing has changed, except for one thing - increased stakes. In the spring of 2014 the US and EU together were trying to dragg Russia into the war in Ukraine, hoping that it will link Russia's resources, and then they themselves perform at a convenient time, in a convenient location and easy will achieve geopolitical gain.

Now we are talking about the fact that the United States, in an attempt to involve Russia in the war, willing to sacrifice their allies of the EU and NATO.


It was then, when Turkish provocation was born. The fact that this is a provocation prepared in advance, I have no doubt.

I can believe that the Turkish media professional operators happen accidentally to be in a right place from which it was possible to film attack on Russian bomber, they just aim lenses in the right spot, at the right moment. Anything can happen.

But the official version of events provided by the Turkish authorities, irrefutably confirmed as the provocative actions of the Turkish Air Force fighters, and the fact that the decision to organize a provocation was made by the first persons of the country.

The Turks can not deny, that the plane crashed in Syrian territory. They also shot and they also published footage, that the aircraft crashed immediately after the rocket hit the airplane. So,that is not the case when, for example, they struck it near Ankara, and it just flew for a long time, until it fell. So, even if the plane violated the airspace of Turkey, it would have lasted a matter of seconds, and a blow to him was deposited when it was clearly in the airspace of Syria.

Such an attack could be partially justified if Russian bomber struck the Turkish territory and then flew  back abroad. But it didn't happen, and a short intersection of the line of the air border is difficult even to accurately fix.

However, according to the official version in Ankara, the Turkish Air Force ten times within five minutes  warned the crew of the Su-24, that it fly in the wrong place, and only after that, it was shot down. And they managed to have time to get the sanction from the Prime Minister - Ahmet Davutoglu said that he personally ordered the attack on the bomber.

It is obvious that the Turks were counting on a very definite  response from the West, when the EU and the United States, contrary to the facts, take an anti-Russian version, even if it is refuted by the facts.

When it became clear that the West has critical attitude to the Turkish position, that neither NATO nor the EU can not give unanimous support to Ankara, that the US alone (without Europe) does not perform, Erdogan tried to upgrade the version. The new version of the aircraft was in the airspace of Turkey from 7 to 17 seconds, and was shot down before could be determined it's type and nationality.

The ends does not meet in the Turkish version . The pilots did not know who they shot down, but Turkish general staff immediately reported that Russian bomber shot down. The prime minister was informed that they were going to destroy some unknown aircraft - and he immediately gives the go-ahead, in the region, where Russian, USA, France and even Canada  planes fly. Only aircraft of ISIS don't. The main thing, that to raise air fighters, 10 times warn unknown airplain, and obtain the prime minister authorization to shoot down the aircraft,  all this the Turks, according to Erdogan, manage to do in no more than in 17 seconds.

In general, they were preparing provocation, calculated on one information and political support and get different one, and got confused. Above all, Putin said that the Russian bomber had not crossed the border into Turkey. Russian President can not be wrong, publicly assessing the situation that could lead to a military conflict between Russia and NATO. He is not Erdogan.

Who commands the parade?

Let us ask ourselves the question. Could the Turks do such a provocation, without coordination with the senior partners? If it was a spontaneous decision in a critical situation, I would say that Erdogan and his team are capable of taking ill-confrontational solutions. But we have noted that the provocation was prepared ahead of time. These were not acts of passion. It was a cold-blooded deliberate and planned murder.

Ankara, as well as Tbilisi in 2008, rely on the protection of US and NATO. The grounds of the Turks was more than the Georgians had - Turkey is NATO member. But the result turned out the same. US walked away and pretended that they were innocent. Erdogan trushed about, but it was too late.

Now many experts talk about how Russia will close the sky of Syria with S-400, arm the Kurds and beat Turkey  (not immediately, but soon). I think that the talk about tough measures is premature. Yes, the air defense group will be strengthened, and aircraft, representing a potential threat to Russian planes can be shot down. Yes, Russia will try to take the sky of Syria under tighter control. Yes, unwritten economic sanctions against Turkey have already begun to act. But in terms of who, whom, how and against whom will be armed, it is necessary to wait and think.

Of course, the evaluation of the president of Russia, called the actions of Ankara's "stab in the back" and the Foreign Minister, who accused Turkey of aiding terrorists are unprecedentedly harsh for modern Russia and commit to concrete actions. But for all these measures wouldn't be beneficial to enemies, still good to find out who and why framed Erdogan.

And Erdogan was framed. He was persuaded to attack the Russian forces (to commit an act of unprovoked aggression, giving a reason for a military response) and left alone on this own.

Country, that could provide such guarantees to Erdogan, who persuaded him to attack the Russians, could only be the United States (the others can not do guarantee such a thing with the case of Russia).

In 2014 in Ukraine the US could be expected that Russia will react to the coup and the beginning of the civil war with the Georgian scenario and send troops.

But in 2015 in Syria, Washington is clearly could not count on the spontaneous reaction of Russia. Start a war with Turkey immediately Moscow could not, simply because at first it is necessary to take out the tourists, then create and deploy a group capable to defeat not a weak Turkish army, to provide logistics (including Syria, due to the inevitable closure of the straits in case of war ), and only then proceed to action. All this requires not one week time actually - two or three months at least, six months and even-year.

Consequently, spontaneous conflict between Russia and Turkey, the US is not expected. Just as unlikely that they hoped that the EU and NATO would be seriously impressed by clumsy Turkish lies and rushed to rescue Ankara from Moscow.

But Washington is actively trying to play with the Kurds. Kurds dream of Kurdistan. Kurdish territory in Syria and Iraq have enjoyed fairly wide autonomy. In Iran, the Kurds population is much smaller, and the problem is not as acute. But Turkey is controlled about 50% of the potential areas of Kurdistan, and its own territory is home to 40% of the Kurds (and now, given the refugees, may already be 60%). Turkey - the only country, several decades leading the war with the Kurds, and on the territories of Syria and Iraq, too. Plans of Ankara and Washington about the Kurds diverge diametrically.

Washington can not openly oppose its NATO ally and publicly support the forces fighting for the dismemberment of the Turkish state. But now the Kurds could rush to ask for weapons, funding and support from Russia, hoping that Moscow is easy to agree to help the enemies of their enemy.

And the Turks do not liked by not only the Kurds. Armenians remember not only the genocide of 1915-1917, but the Turkish blockade of Armenia in connection with the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. And they will certainly remember that the Great Armenia at the times of Tigran II the Great, had the outlet to the Black, Caspian and Mediterranean Seas, and the Armenian kingdom of Cilicia lasted until 1515. And the massacre of greeks in Smyrna have not forgotten, nor the desire to return Constantinople is not lost. So, willing to take part in the partition of Turkey will be plenty enough, and all of them will come to Russia for help in their just struggle.

It's only begining

The destabilization of Turkey is not in Russia's interests. But its transformation into a branch of the ISIS is worse. So it is possible that someone will have to help in the restoration of historical justice. For example, today by many in the Russia, establishment of the Greek-Armenian borders in Asia would be perceived as good, though not the fact that the recovery of the borders of the Byzantine era  Greece or a return to the borders of Armenia of Tigran II will make  these countries reliable partners for Russia. And views of US on Kurdish statehood  does make you think, who really could be the main beneficiary of the Russian-Turkish confrontation.

In general, I repeat, if main  task - to draw Russia into war exist - provocations will continue. From whom expect the next one(from Turkey, Ukraine, the Baltic states) - is unknown. However, in regard to a particular Russian-Turkish crisis caused by the attack on the Russian plane, everything has just begun. More tourists will leave from Turkey, another economic ties will be cut, the Foreign Ministry  still will require an apology. The question may be consider with the UN Security Council. And will be plenty of  visits to Moscow for money and weapons  from all the sides, who would like to finally solve the Turkish question.

Time to make a decision about how to respond to the provocation of Ankara, with protecting our interests, and making such a warning, that nobody dare to repeat provocation, we have. In the meantime, Russia has already used the situation to strengthen its position in Syria. After the implementation of the General Staff intentions completely cover the sky of Syria by Russian air defense systems and to increase the number of fighters based in Hmeymim base, permission to fly in Syrian airspace will have to be asked by the French and the Americans and all those who will be there willing to fly. Just to make sure that thay are not taken for "aircraft carrying a potential threat to Russian planes." And Turkey is unlikely to be able to continue to participate actively in the Syrian settlement.

But we are only at the beginning of the process. We have not escaped the war, only postponed it. And the trick is that in these circumstances, for Erdogan (provocation with the Su-24 that seriously undermine its domestic position and the position of Turkey in the international arena) war may be the best way possible. If it did achieve a war with Russia, the problem will come to another level. To decide on his fate NATO would have, and within the Turkey he will rely on the consolidation of society for the sake of resistance to the enemy. For him, it is extremely risky, but chance. Same as to Poroshenko, risky, but the only solution for him is the resumption of the war in the Donbass.

If Erdogan and Poroshenko be able to agree on concerted action, the US dream can become a reality - Russia will face the prospect of simultaneously being drawn into a military conflict with Ukraine and NATO countries (Turkey). Fashists and muslim nationalists.

So do not wait for the Russian leadership of simple linear solutions. The situation on the world chessboard becomes confusing. US offers to sacrifice more and more of its allies. Sooner or later, we will have to take a sacrifice. Better to do it in the right time.

The problem I see with this is there is no way the USA under Obama desires to provoke Russia. Turkey is acting on its own specifically because Obama is not leading and the Turks cannot depend on the EU or NATO to offer any assistance.

I would think that our extensive world surveillance system would easily be able to see exactly what happened just preceding and during the attack on the Russian military jet.   That should be a matter of record.

One of the most deadly impacts of socialism has been in education where the teaching of a sense of time (history) and a sense of place (geography) are no longer taught; being replaced by politically correct malarkey such as 'social studies'.
Kit Saginaw succinctly gets to the core cause of the Russo-Turkish conflict.
In antiquity, the Anatolian Plain (Turkey) was Greek, being conquered by Alexander of Macedon and it remained so through the Byzantine (Eastern Roman) Empire in the 12th century. Over time, Asiatic tribes wandered west into Anatolia from central Asia, hence the Turks; who adopted Islam. From these evolved the Ottomans who brought down Byzantium.
As Russia evolved, they grasped the need for a warm water port to free their merchant shipping from the icy prison of the North Sea. Hence their covet of Constantinople/Istanbul.
By contrast, the Russian is European, Orthodox and Slav in temperament while the Turk is Asiatic, Muslim and Seljuk. As such, conflict is predictable.

Quote from: supsalemgr on November 27, 2015, 04:37:23 AM
The problem I see with this is there is no way the USA under Obama desires to provoke Russia. Turkey is acting on its own specifically because Obama is not leading and the Turks cannot depend on the EU or NATO to offer any assistance.

Sups you hit the nail right on it's head! The turks have seen this President throw everyone of our mideast allies under the proverbial bus, all the while cozying up to enemies of this Republic such as Castro and Iran. So they acted on their own, to show the Russian's that they themselves are willing to defend their airspace. That no, they don't solely rely on us to do it for them.

And while I disagree with the way in which this has happened, it is overall a good thing.

Rand Paul is right about one thing. When he says our gov, isn't the worlds policeman, he's right.

The Constitution states very specifically what our Government is, AND why it's even established.

And in that list of things, policing the world, running around the globe flexing our military muscle so European nations won't have too. Isn't one of those items listed.

To a very large extent, the United States military might, IS NATO, as well as many U.N. endeavours as well.

That needs to end. Not saying that means we shouldn't have a military, to the contrary we should have as we did pre-Obama, the worlds strongest, fiercest, military in the history of humankind. When it comes to HAVING a standing Army, I'm all for that. History shows us that's simply a necessary thing for a nation to have.

Because sadly, there are still rabid dog, savages out there in the world, like the Nazi's, and like these muzzies, who we might as a nation have a need to see put down.

I just think, that we should curtail it's use a bit. And never allow it's use, as part of U.N. "peacekeeping" missions. Or under the command of foreign Generals/Admirals/ Officers etc...

But as it relates to Turkey, lets be blunt. I for one, would hope to God in heaven our own military would do precisely as Turkey did. To any foreign military force that entered our national sovereignty!

That's the prime reason for having a friggin military.