Author Topic: Something to ponder  (Read 369 times)

Online Solar

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Something to ponder
« on: December 09, 2017, 08:49:59 PM »
The media claims the nation is divided, with half supporting Klinton, and the other half supporting Trump.
So what do pollsters do to sway a poll? They poll equal numbers, based on this split demographic, (lean left, or lean right), so in their mind, they're being fair. Right? :rolleyes:
Here's the problem, the Dim party pissed off 70% of its base, leaving a very spotty 30%, or as studies show, less than 27% actually still support the party.
So, how is it really scientifically possible to get a truly accurate poll? With 70% of the nation hating leftists, yet polling companies are still using equal parts polling? (2000 people polled with a fair 50/50 split in the metrics, 1000 @ 50% lean left and 1000 @ 50% lean Right.)

What made me ponder this, was a poll taken from DecisionDesk... https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ
Point being, Alabama is a Red State, with more than 60% supporting Trump, and more than 10% of Conservatives abstaining because they didn't like how the gop'E stole the process from Cruz.
So why would you poll across the board evenly, as if all things were equal, when clearly they're not.
Ponder that for a moment. I think we can all understand why the Dims and leftist media thought they had it in the bag. :sneaky:

Note: Alabama is the second most Conservative State outside of Idaho, with a 17.3% Conservative advantage, by comparison, New York
at 18.4% advantage



So why do they poll equally in most cases?
With that knowledge in mind, think about Alabama again. :biggrin:


FWIW, Moore will win by 14 points, but that's Just... IMHO.

Quote
Metrics from the survey.

Democrats Fired Up

First, Democrats are angry about President Trump and Roy Moore, enthusiastic about voting and united in support of their nominee.
Better than nine out of ten Democrats in Alabama disapprove of President Trump (94 percent) and prefer a candidate who takes different positions than Trump (92 percent). Almost as many (81 percent) strongly disapprove of Trump. Their perceptions of Roy Moore – 83 percent unfavorable, 73 percent strongly unfavorable – are nearly as negative. Virtually all (98 percent) support Doug Jones over Roy Moore (1 percent).
They are also more fired-up about the special election – 79 percent of Democrats say they are absolutely certain to vote compared to 67 percent of Republicans. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats (65 percent) say they are following the election very closely compared to 55 percent of Republicans.

Do you all see the disconnect from reality here?
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Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2017, 08:55:08 PM »
This is a great show I keep meaning to watch.  Here's a great clip on polling which sums it up:


Online Solar

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Re: Something to ponder
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2017, 05:50:41 AM »
This is a great show I keep meaning to watch.  Here's a great clip on polling which sums it up:


That was spot on! It's the very reason I look at the metrics of every poll. Who and how many were polled, what were the questions and most importantly, what was the theme and how was it geared towards attaining achieved results?

Add to that, "weighting", where a polling Co goes into say, Idaho, knowing it's weighted at a 30% Conservative advantage, poll only Boise, where the population is more evenly distributed, yet keeping the equation of 30% leans Right, they are able to slant their poll in favor of a leftist candidate by weighting it 30% Lib, claiming they're making up for the difference.

We've seen this done over and over, selecting zip codes and area codes, it's why the polling data swings so wildly, add to that, libs love this shit, while Conservatives have better things to do, like living their lives.

Is it any wonder Hitlary lost? If one had based their opinion of Ron Pauls chances of winning, based on comments and polls by Paulbots, you'ds swear Paul was the second coming, but all the polling data was skewed by a very active and neurotic group of youngsters.
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