QuoteSen. Ted Cruz (R) leads his Democratic challenger, Rep. Beto O'Rourke, by just 1 point in their Texas Senate race, well within the margin of error of a new poll from Emerson College.

The survey, which was released on Monday, found that Cruz leads O'Rourke 38 to 37 percent. Four percent of voters favor a different candidate and 21 percent remain undecided.     

This is a surprisingly weak showing for Ted who otherwise dominant his opponents in past elections. I saw some polls earlier in the year showing Ted with a 6-9 point lead so I'm not exactly running in circles here but frankly he should be murdering this lib with 20 points at least in every poll.

Quote from: Gunbunny42 on August 28, 2018, 09:18:13 AM
This is a surprisingly weak showing for Ted who otherwise dominant his opponents in past elections. I saw some polls earlier in the year showing Ted with a 6-9 point lead so I'm not exactly running in circles here but frankly he should be murdering this lib with 20 points at least in every poll.

Could be the poll is for a College that takes money from the government.  Could be like GW, you say we pay or we cut your funds.

I'll take the "over" on that one point lead.

Quote from: Gunbunny42 on August 28, 2018, 09:18:13 AM
This is a surprisingly weak showing for Ted who otherwise dominant his opponents in past elections. I saw some polls earlier in the year showing Ted with a 6-9 point lead so I'm not exactly running in circles here but frankly he should be murdering this lib with 20 points at least in every poll.

I'd say link to the poll, but quite frankly, no one gives them one bit of credence.

Quote from: Gunbunny42 on August 28, 2018, 09:18:13 AM
This is a surprisingly weak showing for Ted who otherwise dominant his opponents in past elections. I saw some polls earlier in the year showing Ted with a 6-9 point lead so I'm not exactly running in circles here but frankly he should be murdering this lib with 20 points at least in every poll.

GB, I have some sweet beach front property in Tucson that I'm letting go for a steal.  Let me know if you're interested.

Where's the link to this madness...oops I mean article....?

Now when the article gets posted I have 5 American bucks that say they polled "registered voters" not "likely voters".

When they start to polling "likely voters" instead of "registered voters" then and only then will I blink an eye to this madness. Ted Cruz by 10+.

Sorry I thought the link went through

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race?amp

Quote from: Gunbunny42 on August 28, 2018, 11:42:20 AM
Sorry I thought the link went through

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race?amp

Here is the actual survey.

BINGO....! Registered Voters..... Like I stated in an earlier post when they start to poll "likely voters" than you can start to raise an eyebrow.


Emerson College e-Poll: Dead heat in Texas between Sen. Cruz and Rep. O'Rourke.
Governor Abbott comfortably ahead about 10 weeks out from Election Day.

The Texas Emerson College e-Poll was conducted August 22-25, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=550, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The data was weighted by ethnicity, party affiliation, mode, 2016 presidential model, and
congressional district. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Survey Monkey.

READ MORE HERE...
https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Quote from: Gunbunny42 on August 28, 2018, 11:42:20 AM
Sorry I thought the link went through

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403786-poll-cruz-leads-orourke-by-one-point-in-texas-senate-race?amp

The problem with Emerson is, it is run essentially by students. They've been in trouble in the past for bias.
One other point, kids don't vote in midterms, so one can pretty much ignore that part of the poll, and the fact that they only surveyed 500, (the minimum amount allowed in polls) really makes one question its validity.

Methodology
The Texas Emerson College e-Poll was conducted August 22-25, 2018 under the Supervision
of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=550, with
a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
The data was weighted by ethnicity, party affiliation, mode, 2016 presidential model, and
congressional district. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins
of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice
Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Survey Monkey.
Emerson College Polling Weekly is the official podcast for the Emerson College poll.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Quote from: Solar on August 28, 2018, 12:30:14 PM
The problem with Emerson is, it is run essentially by students. They've been in trouble in the past for bias.
One other point, kids don't vote in midterms, so one can pretty much ignore that part of the poll, and the fact that they only surveyed 500, (the minimum amount allowed in polls) really makes one question its validity.

Methodology
The Texas Emerson College e-Poll was conducted August 22-25, 2018 under the Supervision
of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=550, with
a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
The data was weighted by ethnicity, party affiliation, mode, 2016 presidential model, and
congressional district. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins
of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice
Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Survey Monkey.
Emerson College Polling Weekly is the official podcast for the Emerson College poll.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Ted Cruz by 10+

Quote from: Solar on August 28, 2018, 12:30:14 PM
The problem with Emerson is, it is run essentially by students. They've been in trouble in the past for bias.
One other point, kids don't vote in midterms, so one can pretty much ignore that part of the poll, and the fact that they only surveyed 500, (the minimum amount allowed in polls) really makes one question its validity.

Methodology
The Texas Emerson College e-Poll was conducted August 22-25, 2018 under the Supervision
of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=550, with
a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll's margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
The data was weighted by ethnicity, party affiliation, mode, 2016 presidential model, and
congressional district. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins
of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice
Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by Survey Monkey.
Emerson College Polling Weekly is the official podcast for the Emerson College poll.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tx-aug2018-pr.pdf

Get ready for a barrage of these pols with just over two months to go before the mid terms. The democrats are desperate for an energized voter base. While history shows the party of an existing would lose house seats, it also shows that many in the democrat base do not vote in mid terms.

Even if the poll was even, Abbott's coattails would pull him thru. However, I do believe Cruz is doing fine. Don't forget Wendy Davis was also polling well enough to give liberals hope for the upset. Annnnd we know how that poll turned out.

Quote from: Gunbunny42 on August 28, 2018, 09:18:13 AM
This is a surprisingly weak showing for Ted who otherwise dominant his opponents in past elections. I saw some polls earlier in the year showing Ted with a 6-9 point lead so I'm not exactly running in circles here but frankly he should be murdering this lib with 20 points at least in every poll.

You mean like the polls showed hildog to beat trump?

Please keep trusting these polls. Why would the left put out fake polls? To make other leftists feel better, and to make us depressed.

But jokes on them. When we are depressed we get angry and vote. When The left feels good they get lazy and dont vote.

So all they are doing by altering these polls is hurt themselves and help us.

Please keep trusting these polls.

Quote from: s3779m on August 28, 2018, 12:49:58 PM
Even if the poll was even, Abbott's coattails would pull him thru. However, I do believe Cruz is doing fine. Don't forget Wendy Davis was also polling well enough to give liberals hope for the upset. Annnnd we know how that poll turned out.

Exactly! And funny enough, Abbott carried the Mexi vote.

Quote from: T Hunt on August 28, 2018, 03:02:40 PM
You mean like the polls showed hildog to beat trump?

Please keep trusting these polls. Why would the left put out fake polls? To make other leftists feel better, and to make us depressed.

But jokes on them. When we are depressed we get angry and vote. When The left feels good they get lazy and dont vote.

So all they are doing by altering these polls is hurt themselves and help us.

Please keep trusting these polls.

I never said blindly trust in polls but by the same token you can't just dismiss a poll because you don't like what it has to say. Skepticism is not an excuse to live in an echo chamber