Author Topic: Number of Dems falls to record low (-3% from last year)  (Read 957 times)

Offline quiller

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Number of Dems falls to record low (-3% from last year)
« on: October 02, 2010, 09:40:56 AM »
Rasmussen Reports, and we decide....

Quote
For the second month in a row, the number of Americans who identify themselves as Democrats has fallen to a record low.

In September, 34.6% of American Adults identified themselves as Democrats. That’s down nearly half a percentage point from a month ago,  a full percentage point from two months ago, and is the smallest percentage of Democrats ever recorded in nearly eight years of monthly tracking.

At the same time, the number of Republicans slipped from 33.8% in August to 33.1% last month.

The number of Adults not affiliated with either major party is now at 32.3%.

As has been the case in every month over the past eight years of tracking, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. The gap is currently 1.5 percentage points. That’s up from a 1.2-percentage-point gap a month ago. The past two months are the closest the Republicans have been to parity in more than five years - since July 2005.

Things were much better for Democrats heading into the two most recent election cycles. In September 2006, they enjoyed a 4.8-percentage-point advantage. In September 2008, the gap was 5.6 percentage points. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.

However, things aren’t quite as rosy for the Republicans as they were in September 2004. Heading into the presidential election that year, the Democrats had a 0.6-percentage-point advantage. That was the best single month ever recorded for the GOP.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Compared to one year ago, the number of Democrats is down three percentage points, and the number of Republicans is up a point.

Compared to September 2008, the number of Democrats is down four percentage points, and the number of Republicans is little changed.

The biggest advantage ever measured for Democrats was 10.1 percentage points in May 2008. In December 2008, the final full month of the Bush administration, the Democrats held an 8.8-percentage-point advantage.

Between November 2004 and 2006, the Democratic advantage in partisan identification grew by 4.5 percentage points. That foreshadowed the Democrats' big gains in the 2006 midterm elections. The gap grew by another 1.5 percentage points between November 2006 and November 2008 leading up to Barack Obama's election.

The number of Democrats peaked at 41.7% in May 2008, and it was nearly as high - at 41.6% - in December 2008. The number of Democrats fell below the 40% mark in March 2009 and first fell below 36% in December of last year. Rasmussen Reports has been tracking this data monthly since November 2002.

Prior to this month’s data, the lowest level of identification with the Democrats has been 35.1%. It was reached twice, in February and May of this year.

For Republicans, the peak was way back in September 2004 at 37.3%. For nearly five years, since late 2005, the number of Republicans has generally stayed between 31% and 34% of the nation’s adults.

Keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not likely voters. Republicans are a bit more likely to participate in elections than Democrats.

The president’s approval rating has held fairly steady throughout 2010 as reflected in our month-by-month review.  The Republican advantage on the Generic Congressional Ballot  also has held steady.  Republicans continue to be trusted more than Democrats on most key issues.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power summary shows Republicans are likely to gain seats in the U.S. Senate this November.  The same is true in our summary of governor’s races.

Data from our monthly partisan identification survey is used to set weighting targets for other Rasmussen Reports surveys. The targets are based on results from the previous three months.

Links to referenced polls are in the original, HERE....

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends

If anything Rasmussen is understating things a bit. Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia is saying either 7 or 8 Senate seats will go to the GOP, and 8 governorships. (His record is nearly as good as Rasmussen's.)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/midterm_morsels_senate_and_governor_ratings_changes_and_check_ups

Online Solar

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Re: Number of Dems falls to record low (-3% from last year)
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2010, 09:44:41 AM »
Translation: Dim = Socialist.
In other words, people don't consider themselves socialists, and have abandoned the Dim party in droves.

Things like this bring a smile to my face. :)
#WWG1WGA

Offline Dan

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Re: Number of Dems falls to record low (-3% from last year)
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2010, 10:15:08 AM »
Actually it appears that Republicans are considerably more likely to vote this time. 3 million more republicans voted in the primaries than democrats. That's the biggest margin singe I believe 1920 or 1930 or something.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Offline quiller

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Re: Number of Dems falls to record low (-3% from last year)
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2010, 10:28:47 AM »
Translation: Dim = Socialist.
In other words, people don't consider themselves socialists, and have abandoned the Dim party in droves.

Things like this bring a smile to my face. :)

A veto-proof House and Senate are what does it for me. This is now looking as if it will not be enough, despite the Pledge to America which the GOP recycled out of the Gingrich era. (Too little, too general, too late.)

Frankly, they trotted that one out and managed to make it sound as phony as the Coffee Party, a desperate last-minute ripoff --- which it was. The media has kindly ignored it for the most part, or talks about it solely through the prism of Obama-supporting dunderheads who hate all things conservative.

Online Solar

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Re: Number of Dems falls to record low (-3% from last year)
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2010, 10:30:18 AM »
Actually it appears that Republicans are considerably more likely to vote this time. 3 million more republicans voted in the primaries than democrats. That's the biggest margin singe I believe 1920 or 1930 or something.
Add to that , the people that have abandoned the Dim party, that will either vote Pub, or sit it out.

I'm still predicting a historical massacre.
#WWG1WGA

 

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