What does China know that no one is talking about?
Here's the evidence.
Refugee camps being set up along the Chinese border.
The camps are an unusual, albeit tacit, admission by China that instability in North Korea is increasingly likely, and that refugees could swarm across the Tumen River, a narrow ribbon of water that divides the two countries.
For decades, Chinese policy on North Korea has centered on maintaining stability in a neighboring country known for its repression and volatility.
Despite international sanctions and condemnation, the North in recent months has intensified a program to test nuclear weapons and missiles, increasing the potential for internal instability or the chance of an attack by the United States.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/11/world/asia/china-north-korea-border.html?utm_content=buffer0e8bc&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
China Just Sent a Big Military Warning to North Korea
According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), a Hong Kong-based publication, on Tuesday a Chinese ground unit practiced shooting down simulated low flying missiles over Bohai Bay. Bohai Bay is " the innermost gulf of the Yellow Sea between China and North Korea," the report noted. Although few details were given, including which defense systems were used, Chinese websites indicated the test sought to simulate a surprise attack in a realistic, warfighting scenario.
Tuesday's drill was the third time the Chinese military has conducted an exercise in the Bohai Bay in the last month and a half. The first one took place back in July to celebrate the ninetieth anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. That drill was a three-day naval exercise.
The second drill came a week later following North Korea's second test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on July 28. This drill appeared to be much larger than the first. UPI reported at the time, citing CCTV, China's national broadcaster, that "surface ships, submarines, air support and coastguard forces took part in the drills," which also included tests of dozens of missiles. UPI also noted that "aerial interception and assaults by land and sea, the simulation of real combat conditions, were all part of the drills."
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-just-sent-big-military-warning-north-korea-22234
China plans for North Korean regime collapse leaked
China has drawn up detailed contingency plans for the collapse of the North Korean government, suggesting that Beijing has little faith in the longevity of Kim Jong-un's regime.
Documents drawn up by planners from China's People's Liberation Army that were leaked to Japanese media include proposals for detaining key North Korean leaders and the creation of refugee camps on the Chinese side of the frontier in the event of an outbreak of civil unrest in the secretive state.
The report calls for stepping up monitoring of China's 879-mile border with North Korea.
Any senior North Korean military or political leaders who could be the target of either rival factions or another "military power," thought to be a reference to the United States, should be given protection, the documents state.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/10808719/China-plans-for-North-Korean-regime-collapse-leaked.html
Is this suggesting China can't control the little fat guy and expects to be at war with him before we have to swat him down...?
Quote from: Hoofer on December 15, 2017, 07:15:28 AM
Is this suggesting China can't control the little fat guy and expects to be at war with him before we have to swat him down...?
That's the impression I'm getting as well.
China for decades tolerated NK behavior, simply because it gave the appearance that NK was willing to fight to keep its communist regime at any cost, giving China a buffer between free market capitalism in SK off its doorstep.
If China doesn't step in and take the crazy nut out, the world will and they're making contingency plans in the interim.
Looks like Trump made it clear he is willing to take NK on regardless.
China is in check and it's their move. We'll see if China does something to curb the little freak by Spring. Time is running out.
Quote from: Solar on December 15, 2017, 07:37:31 AM
That's the impression I'm getting as well.
China for decades tolerated NK behavior, simply because it gave the appearance that NK was willing to fight to keep its communist regime at any cost, giving China a buffer between free market capitalism in SK off its doorstep.
If China doesn't step in and take the crazy nut out, the world will and they're making contingency plans in the interim.
Looks like Trump made it clear he is willing to take NK on regardless.
China is in check and it's their move. We'll see if China does something to curb the little freak by Spring. Time is running out.
Of course,
President Trump (gee... love to say that, it drives Liberals crazy), would never get any credit for pressuring China to do something about their spoiled brat, NK. But, the Left is busily running around, "OMG, the sky is falling!" while
President Trump is quietly telling the ChiCons, "Are you going to discipline this punk kid of yours, or
if we have to do it, you're not going to like the outcome."
Quote from: Hoofer on December 15, 2017, 07:52:45 AM
Of course, President Trump (gee... love to say that, it drives Liberals crazy), would never get any credit for pressuring China to do something about their spoiled brat, NK. But, the Left is busily running around, "OMG, the sky is falling!" while President Trump is quietly telling the ChiCons, "Are you going to discipline this punk kid of yours, or if we have to do it, you're not going to like the outcome."
Exactly! He put the fear of God into them and now the ball is in their court.
Who knows, maybe this is China's way of sending a message to NK, that they will stand aside and let the chips fall where they may?
May be a ploy to get NK to the table?
China is probably expecting the regime to collapse. If it does there will be an exodus into China. The question is at whose doing?
Quote from: The Boo Man... on December 15, 2017, 07:01:43 PM
China is probably expecting the regime to collapse. If it does there will be an exodus into China. The question is at whose doing?
Then they need to cut off supplies and speed up its demise.
Quote from: The Boo Man... on December 15, 2017, 07:01:43 PM
China is probably expecting the regime to collapse. If it does there will be an exodus into China. The question is at whose doing?
I'd put money on China for this one. President Trump continues to pressure China to discipline their child, North Korea.
Expecting "Dear Leader" to have an accident, suddenly take ill, or fly to the back side of the Sun for rest and relaxation.
To think of those starving people... and in the throws of winter, even our worst in America has more hope than a No. Korean.
Kim's leftist hand man, missing, presumed murdered by the little freak.
If I were to guess, I'd say Kim is in the throes of paranoia from all the pressure being generated from an allied front against him.
be it carefully calculated messages designed to make it appear that he has a leaker within his fold, to that of internal spies, Kim is showing signs if a meltdown.
https://www.newsmax.com/thewire/kim-jong-un-top-aide-executed/2017/12/15/id/831935/
While I disagree w/several conclusions about China, the discussion is interesting
Korea existed as a pre-feudal vassal of China throughout history; up to the latter's last Dynasty, the Qing/Manchu.
Then in 1897 the Korean Empire emerged, enduring till 1910, when it was annexed by Japan who occupied the Peninsula till 1945. What industrialization/modernization Korea experienced, occurred during those 3.5 decades.
The nation to be feared and respected on the Pacific Rim is Japan, from Russia to Australia, and emphatically not China.
Japan fought the Sino-Japanese War twice, utterly thrashing China both times.
As well, Japan sank the entire Czarist Grand Fleet in the Straits of Tsushima in 1905 sinking some
30 dreadnoughts and inflicted many thousands of casualties which provoked revolution in St. Petersberg.
There are many ways to get somone's attention; one being to instill fear in them.
Most critically, Japan more than any nation knows Korea from both experience and proximity.
They not China, should be our natural advocate w/the likes of rocket boy.
Someone alert Tillerson.
Quote from: Walter Josh on December 16, 2017, 08:28:54 PM
While I disagree w/several conclusions about China, the discussion is interesting
Korea existed as a pre-feudal vassal of China throughout history; up to the latter's last Dynasty, the Qing/Manchu.
Then in 1897 the Korean Empire emerged, enduring till 1910, when it was annexed by Japan who occupied the Peninsula till 1945. What industrialization/modernization Korea experienced, occurred during those 3.5 decades.
The nation to be feared and respected on the Pacific Rim is Japan, from Russia to Australia, and emphatically not China.
Japan fought the Sino-Japanese War twice, utterly thrashing China both times.
As well, Japan sank the entire Czarist Grand Fleet in the Straits of Tsushima in 1905 sinking some
30 dreadnoughts and inflicted many thousands of casualties which provoked revolution in St. Petersberg.
There are many ways to get somone's attention; one being to instill fear in them.
Most critically, Japan more than any nation knows Korea from both experience and proximity.
They not China, should be our natural advocate w/the likes of rocket boy.
Someone alert Tillerson.
Japan is a solid ally against NK and both China and NK recognize this fact, and it's yet to be played as one of the players in the game, (the Japanese bluff) which is why we have yet to make it a nuclear player, a move that would clearly push China over the edge.
I believe Trump is content with the direction the NK issue is taking, and patience is a virtue. Worry when Trump plays the Japanese nuclear card.
For real negotiations to work, they have to be backed with the threat of real war, and at this point, the entire world thinks we might just obliterate the NK regime, and China is convinced of this as well based on its actions.
The next move belongs to NK.
Quote from: Solar on December 17, 2017, 03:49:06 AM
Japan is a solid ally against NK and both China and NK recognize this fact, and it's yet to be played as one of the players in the game, (the Japanese bluff) which is why we have yet to make it a nuclear player, a move that would clearly push China over the edge.
I believe Trump is content with the direction the NK issue is taking, and patience is a virtue. Worry when Trump plays the Japanese nuclear card.
For real negotiations to work, they have to be backed with the threat of real war, and at this point, the entire world thinks we might just obliterate the NK regime, and China is convinced of this as well based on its actions.
The next move belongs to NK.
Peace through Strength. 8 years of appeasement through humiliation (Bowing).
Well, Barak Obama, your idea didn't work.... Looked like a boy bowing for a spanking, or preferring something perverse.
I wonder what irritates Obama the most, "It didn't work" or "you looked really stupid, and we'll eternally have the photographs to remind you". :ttoung: MAGA thru Bowing... naaahhh... just sort of lacks authority.
MAGA = Peace through Strength. Makes perfect sense to anyone who was alive during the Reagan Administration.
Quote from: Hoofer on December 17, 2017, 04:03:12 AM
Peace through Strength. 8 years of appeasement through humiliation (Bowing).
Well, Barak Obama, your idea didn't work.... Looked like a boy bowing for a spanking, or preferring something perverse.
I wonder what irritates Obama the most, "It didn't work" or "you looked really stupid, and we'll eternally have the photographs to remind you". :ttoung: MAGA thru Bowing... naaahhh... just sort of lacks authority.
MAGA = Peace through Strength. Makes perfect sense to anyone who was alive during the Reagan Administration.
Exactly, diplomacy works best at the negotiating table with a sincerity for peace, as it does a possible war.
The difference with NK over say, a Russia or China, they have things to risk beyond their borders, such as energy influence, or trade, while all NK has is the threat of war.
That is not a position one wants to be in when attempting to negotiate in trading commodities.
So what has NK to offer, I won't kill you? They have already put themselves in check, yet continue to threaten their neighbors, why, people ask?
Because they think China will have their back, but that threat is beginning to show its cracks.
A lesson from a tale about China.
In 1893, China's Treasury earmarked funds to modernize her Imperial Navy; in response to the rapid advance of Japanese sea-power.
Empress Cixi, their ruler, instead diverted much of these funds to construct her "Boat of Ease and Purity."
The 'Marble Boat' never moved, being permanently embedded in a sandy lagoon at the Summer Palace in Beijing.
Egypt, Persia, Greece, Rome, Hapsburg Spain, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, among others, were Imperial Powers.
China is not and never was; being simply a nation w/a large population where the self-interest of whichever ruling class holds power is the one and only thing that matters.
Moral of the tale is simple:
Expecting China to trumpet our messages and warnings to the mortal threat of North Korea is a fools errand which could easily cost South Korea its existence.
P.S. I have stood on the deck and walked the infrastructure of the Marble Boat.
Quote from: Walter Josh on December 17, 2017, 02:41:44 PM
A lesson from a tale about China.
In 1893, China's Treasury earmarked funds to modernize her Imperial Navy; in response to the rapid advance of Japanese sea-power.
Empress Cixi, their ruler, instead diverted much of these funds to construct her "Boat of Ease and Purity."
The 'Marble Boat' never moved, being permanently embedded in a sandy lagoon at the Summer Palace in Beijing.
Egypt, Persia, Greece, Rome, Hapsburg Spain, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, among others, were Imperial Powers.
China is not and never was; being simply a nation w/a large population where the self-interest of whichever ruling class holds power is the one and only thing that matters.
Moral of the tale is simple:
Expecting China to trumpet our messages and warnings to the mortal threat of North Korea is a fools errand which could easily cost South Korea its existence.
P.S. I have stood on the deck and walked the infrastructure of the Marble Boat.
Well, we just don't have too many options, do we. China is dependent on USA as a market for their cheap, crappy goods.
China has already shown signs of cooperation, with the lowering of Tarriffs on 70 imported goods - per President Trump.
https://www.dairyherd.com/article/china-unilaterally-lowers-cheese-tariffs
QuoteEffective Dec. 1, 2017, China is unilaterally lowering its cheese tariffs from 12 percent to 8 percent. The move will immediately boost U.S. export competitiveness in China and help U.S. suppliers take a larger role in meeting the nation's booming cheese demand.
.....
The reduction is part of a broader package of tariff cuts on food and consumer goods China announced last week to bolster consumer choice.
China can be moved into a more cooperative spirit - and already has.... change channels on the TV, or turn it off altogether.
Quote from: Walter Josh on December 17, 2017, 02:41:44 PM
A lesson from a tale about China.
In 1893, China's Treasury earmarked funds to modernize her Imperial Navy; in response to the rapid advance of Japanese sea-power.
Empress Cixi, their ruler, instead diverted much of these funds to construct her "Boat of Ease and Purity."
The 'Marble Boat' never moved, being permanently embedded in a sandy lagoon at the Summer Palace in Beijing.
Egypt, Persia, Greece, Rome, Hapsburg Spain, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, among others, were Imperial Powers.
China is not and never was; being simply a nation w/a large population where the self-interest of whichever ruling class holds power is the one and only thing that matters.
Moral of the tale is simple:
Expecting China to trumpet our messages and warnings to the mortal threat of North Korea is a fools errand which could easily cost South Korea its existence.
P.S. I have stood on the deck and walked the infrastructure of the Marble Boat.
Funny thing about history, the players change, as, adding in the US as a superpower several times over.
Aforementioned parties now have to contend with a massive player on the field, as Hoofer pointed out, all of which are heavily dependent upon US trade. We catch a cold, they suffer pneumonia.
In other words, it's in their best interests to work with the stable entity and set the crazy one straight...
Quote from: Solar on December 17, 2017, 03:19:49 PM
Funny thing about history, the players change, as, adding in the US as a superpower several times over.
Aforementioned parties now have to contend with a massive player on the field, as Hoofer pointed out, all of which are heavily dependent upon US trade. We catch a cold, they suffer pneumonia.
In other words, it's in their best interests to work with the stable entity and set the crazy one straight...
Excellent point! Who were the super powers in 1893? The USA was not among them. 100 years ago, 1917 we had not come into our own in manufacturing... much has changed.
Quote from: Hoofer on December 17, 2017, 03:24:52 PM
Excellent point! Who were the super powers in 1893? The USA was not among them. 100 years ago, 1917 we had not come into our own in manufacturing... much has changed.
Yep, Britain Dutch and France, though Britain was beginning to do a bit of downsizing throughout the 1800s, they were still unquestionably the superpower of the day.
And all that has changed with the biggest superpower in the history of man, the US now commanding the air, sea, and ground if need be..
Quote from: Hoofer on December 17, 2017, 03:03:51 PM
Well, we just don't have too many options, do we. China is dependent on USA as a market for their cheap, crappy goods.
China has already shown signs of cooperation, with the lowering of Tarriffs on 70 imported goods - per President Trump.
https://www.dairyherd.com/article/china-unilaterally-lowers-cheese-tariffs
China can be moved into a more cooperative spirit - and already has.... change channels on the TV, or turn it off altogether.
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On the mark observation about China and their so called goods. Bad, worse and worst is a better descriptive.
Has China changed? We'll see, so lets hope.
Huge concern is Tillerson, a conceited and pious corporate type, who believes he's another Talleyrand who understands geo-political reality because he travels the globe having salads w/assorted frauds and hustlers.
Additionally, given the performance of the State Dept. bureaucracy in the Middle East;
they should be disqualified from any say involving North Korea.
More than ever, this crisis requires hard and wise men who understand why nation-states behave as they do.
Lord Palmerston observed that great nations have neither allies nor friends; they simply have interests.
Those proximate to No. Korea must understand their interest here is survival and stuff the sanctimonious bull shit that passes for diplomacy, in our time.
Quote from: Walter Josh on December 17, 2017, 07:24:49 PM
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On the mark observation about China and their so called goods. Bad, worse and worst is a better descriptive.
Has China changed? We'll see, so lets hope.
70 Tariffs lowered, change that cannot be denied.
QuoteHuge concern is Tillerson, a conceited and pious corporate type, who believes he's another Talleyrand who understands geo-political reality because he travels the globe having salads w/assorted frauds and hustlers.
Tillerson is at HOME with these people, we know that, the only thing I care about is whether or not he can do something for America. I have doubts.
QuoteAdditionally, given the performance of the State Dept. bureaucracy in the Middle East; they should be disqualified from any say involving North Korea.
We're still dealing with a State Dept. full of Obama holdovers - therefore, set the "bar" low, they've not succeeded at reigning in NK before, but President Trump appears to have different ideas.
QuoteMore than ever, this crisis requires hard and wise men who understand why nation-states behave as they do.
Lord Palmerston observed that great nations have neither allies nor friends; they simply have interests.
Those proximate to No. Korea must understand their interest here is survival and stuff the sanctimonious bull shit that passes for diplomacy, in our time.
Lord Flatulence observed, washing crab cakes down with a pint of Guinness will not endear your wife.Walt, here's the rub - everyone else has FAILED with appeasement and so-called sanctions, North Korea and Iran included. (we had Iran on the ropes and Obama bailed them out) President Trump (Libs hate that), has met NK with tough talk of war, but also gone to China and said enough with your economic policy, if you want the USA to continue to bolster your crap economy - here's what's gonna change! And... BTW... your dog eating friend in NK is going to go on a diet, quit feeding him.
Like I suggested, we don't have many choices. President Trump (libs hate that), has already made more progress than prior Community Organizer... what's his face... the Bowing Buffoon. (libs also hate that).
Quote from: Hoofer on December 19, 2017, 06:11:51 AM
70 Tariffs lowered, change that cannot be denied.
Tillerson is at HOME with these people, we know that, the only thing I care about is whether or not he can do something for America. I have doubts.
We're still dealing with a State Dept. full of Obama holdovers - therefore, set the "bar" low, they've not succeeded at reigning in NK before, but President Trump appears to have different ideas.
Lord Flatulence observed, washing crab cakes down with a pint of Guinness will not endear your wife.
Walt, here's the rub - everyone else has FAILED with appeasement and so-called sanctions, North Korea and Iran included. (we had Iran on the ropes and Obama bailed them out) President Trump (Libs hate that), has met NK with tough talk of war, but also gone to China and said enough with your economic policy, if you want the USA to continue to bolster your crap economy - here's what's gonna change! And... BTW... your dog eating friend in NK is going to go on a diet, quit feeding him.
Like I suggested, we don't have many choices. President Trump (libs hate that), has already made more progress than prior Community Organizer... what's his face... the Bowing Buffoon. (libs also hate that).
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Fair enough w/astute reflections.
As it's Christmas Season, let's hope this wish is fulfilled.