http://www.redstate.com/neil_stevens/2010/10/06/a-metric-ton-of-new-polling-today/

Here is what I'm seeing in the battleground senate races.

I think the following Democrat seats will be lost to the Republicans:

Nevada
Colorado
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Arkansas
Indiana
North Dakota

I think the following Democrat seats will stay Democrat:


Connecticut
Delaware


I think the following Democrat states are still in play but more likely to go Democrat at this point:


California
Illinois
Washington


If we don't pull at least 2 of the 3 toss up states then the Democrats will retain their majority. But they will lose their speaker and lose any hope of a working majority since lots of Dems in redder states will come up for election in 2012. It will be harder for Obama to make them walk the plank on agressive liberal agenda items.


That means the Dems have Obama, the Republicans will have the House and the Senate will effectively be a toss up. Perfect recipe for gridlock and this will be a boon to the economy. Just knowing Obama no longer has the power to harm business will encourage huge amounts of capital to get off the sidelines and back into the game.

Check that. I think Kirk will pull out Illinois. That means we just need to win either California or Washington to cross the finish line. But my earlier point still holds. The Dems will not have a working majority in the senate regardless of whether or not they hold committee chair spots or not.

If I were the Republcian money men then I would be putting the bulk of my resources in California and Washington over the next month. All we need to do is win one of these states and both are statistical ties. This is where the Senate leadership will either be won or lost.

Quote from: Dan on October 07, 2010, 07:00:07 AM
If I were the Republcian money men then I would be putting the bulk of my resources in California and Washington over the next month. All we need to do is win one of these states and both are statistical ties. This is where the Senate leadership will either be won or lost.

Would be nice if it were Washington.  We would need Seattle or Spokane, WA to pull it off.

Quote from: walkstall on October 07, 2010, 08:59:16 AM
Would be nice if it were Washington.  We would need Seattle or Spokane, WA to pull it off.

Agreed. King County deciding on joining British Columbia would be real nice, too, but it ain't gonna happen. Nevertheless Washington is more objectively vulnerable than California.

I think Murray is in big trouble in Washington.  She's nuts.  Unfortunately, Boxer will probably keep her seat in the land of fruits and nuts.

Quote from: walkstall on October 07, 2010, 08:59:16 AM
Would be nice if it were Washington.  We would need Seattle or Spokane, WA to pull it off.

It's just going to be a matter of voter turnout in my mind. Even though the concerns about voter fraud in King County do worry me a bit.

Quote from: AmericanFlyer on October 07, 2010, 09:18:05 AM
I think Murray is in big trouble in Washington.  She's nuts.  Unfortunately, Boxer will probably keep her seat in the land of fruits and nuts.

If we split those two states with the Dems then we would get to 51 unless Harry Reid staged a comeback. I would love to see Boxer go, but I would take the math in your analysis and run.  ;)

Quote from: Dan on October 07, 2010, 09:37:24 AM
It's just going to be a matter of voter turnout in my mind. Even though the concerns about voter fraud in King County do worry me a bit.

NEVER underestimate the massive Democrat voter fraud network in this country.  King County is certainly proof of that, as you said.  I would imagine Reid has quite the voter fraud machine in Nevada too. 

If a clown like Stewart Smalley Franken can fraudulently become a U.S. Senator, ANYTHING is possible.

Quote from: AmericanFlyer on October 07, 2010, 09:51:59 AM
If a clown like Stewart Smalley Franken can fraudulently become a U.S. Senator, ANYTHING is possible.

It was all the convicted felons who are also loyal democrats that threw the Minnsoata Senate race for Frankin in 2008. Those are his peeps.  :P

Quote from: Dan on October 07, 2010, 09:53:24 AM
It was all the convicted felons who are also loyal democrats that threw the Minnsoata Senate race for Frankin in 2008. Those are his peeps.  :P

They also helped in Seattle as loyal democrats.   

Felons and dead people are definitely the most loyal Democrat voters that's for sure.