Larry Schweikart has been destroying the blue wave myth

Started by taxed, October 18, 2018, 04:57:13 PM

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taxed

Quote from: ldub23 on October 20, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
I can answer that  in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and  2008. Lost  big  in 2010.

Bush lost it in 2006... Dems didn't win.  2008 was a swing against Bush.
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walkstall

Quote from: ldub23 on October 20, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
I can answer that  in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and  2008. Lost  big  in 2010.


A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

Solar

Quote from: ldub23 on October 20, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
I can answer that  in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and  2008. Lost  big  in 2010.
And we've been kicking ass for the last 8 years with zero subsidence Your point?
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ldub23

Quote from: Solar on October 20, 2018, 07:39:44 PM
And we've been kicking ass for the last 8 years with zero subsidence Your point?

My point is this is going to be a disaster for reps, similar to 2006. CNN has the socialist  up 12 in FLA. Is it right? If it is then its a total disaster everywhere for  reps. I dont know  if the senate needs 2/3rds to convict Trump on impeachment but the house will impeach him and there are alot  of rep senators who want to be rid  of  him. I still am thinking reps  lose 40-50 house seats and  lose senate seats  in AZ and NV.

ldub23

One upset special i have is Scott Taylor  losing in my district for the House. He is up 7 according to a CNU poll but the dems are saturating the airwaves with attacks  on him with very few ads for  Taylor.. The  only good thing about dems winning congress is there MIGHT BE a  backlash against them in 2020 if  its seen as too partisan. However, if 15-20 rep senators join the dems to convict then my guess is a hell of a  lot of Trump voters will kiss the rep party goodbye for  good in 2020. Lets say the rep party  puts  up a Rino like Rubio then by the  time  2020 is done dems could  have 275 house seats and 60+ senate seats. Rep party  had  no chance to win the presidency  in 2016 except  for Trump and there are alot  of reps who want him gone at  any price.

Solar

Quote from: ldub23 on October 22, 2018, 12:21:56 PM
My point is this is going to be a disaster for reps, similar to 2006. CNN has the socialist  up 12 in FLA. Is it right? If it is then its a total disaster everywhere for  reps. I dont know  if the senate needs 2/3rds to convict Trump on impeachment but the house will impeach him and there are alot  of rep senators who want to be rid  of  him. I still am thinking reps  lose 40-50 house seats and  lose senate seats  in AZ and NV.
I see your problem, you rely on the left for your stats.
Did it ever occur to you to look at other polling?
Still, polls mean nothing because, almost 95% of the time are paid for by leftists.
Note the Yuuuuge disparity in numbers in the polls on the link. I can't stress enough, the left is a disaster everyone is avoiding.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html
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ldub23

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor

Thats the  only  poll from Rasmussen.

I havent seen any attempt on reps  part to make the  election a  national referendum on the economy.

Solar

Quote from: ldub23 on October 22, 2018, 12:58:33 PM
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor

Thats the  only  poll from Rasmussen.

I havent seen any attempt on reps  part to make the  election a  national referendum on the economy.
I have no idea why you put so much gravity behind polls, when all the polls showed Clinton winning in a landslide.
From your link.
"Forty-eight percent (48%) of Florida voters approve of the job Scott is doing; 47% disapprove. This includes 30% who Strongly Approve and 32% who Strongly Disapprove."

Point being, this is a midterm election, an election when the left sits out elections compared to that of the Right.

Get it through your head, the left is yesterdays used TP, they are essentially dead as a force in politics. I've said this many times, the lSM and the Establishment RINO keep them alive.
The RINO need a tool to scare the base into supporting their candidates, and yes, that worked for decades, but not any longer, now the base is pissed and supporting Trump's choices, which happen to be people that support Trump's Conservative agenda.
I don't know if you have a blind spot when it comes to deciphering the numbers, but they all point to a HUGE Red Wave.
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redbeard

I put no credence in that CNN poll. Both the senate race and the governors numbers should be closer to each other since the same people will be voting for each in this state wide election. The thing that worries me the most is the area wiped out by the storm, the Panhandle, is a strong republican area and I have no idea how that is going to effect this very close race! My gut feeling as a long term resident of Florida we will win both the senate seat and the governor's  race.

Early voting started today! I will be at the polls tomorrow.

supsalemgr

Just an anecdotal observation about some early voting.

Mrs. Sup and I went to vote this morning. The voting line was steady and busy. So far it has been reported that Henderson County has the most active early voting in the state of NC. It is a county of about 150K and is heavily republican. This a positive sign at least here in NC.
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