Larry Schweikart has been destroying the blue wave myth

Started by taxed, October 18, 2018, 04:57:13 PM

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taxed

Schweikart has been breaking down voting data as of late.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1052710045375295488.html

He has a bunch of tweets showing a red wave trend.  Here's an article he posted on Big League Politics:

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/republicans-surging-in-key-metrics-in-house-and-senate/

QuoteA number of anecdotes and a patchwork of early/absentee voting numbers is suggesting that even some of us who predicted a hold in the House and a big gain in the Senate may still be underestimating the extent of the Republican wave that may be coming.

In Arizona, deepest of blue Tucson, according to early voting data, is seeing many of its blue precincts eroded. (Tucson is Boston in the desert). This does not bode well for Kyrsten Sinema, and while the congressional seat probably won't go red, the data suggests the races there may be closer than anyone expected. This is especially true since Governor Doug Ducey is walloping Democrat David Garcia by almost 20 points. Tides tend to carry all vessels the same way, and if Ducey is up that much (and Sinema is apparently collapsing that much), some otherwise "safe" Democrat seats may be in play.

This is supported by absentee requests (though not returns so far, of which there have been few) in Iowa. In 2016, Iowa was key to my analysis of Trump's performance, and more important, to Hillary Clinton's gigantic underperformance. The typical pattern in Iowa is that Democrats dominate absentee balloting, Republicans do better on election day. Except that in 2016, Democrat absentees were off massively (and pretty much ended that way).

Today? We are seeing the same thing: Democrats are underperforming their 2016 levels, but Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2016 pace. Combined, the Democrat shortfall and Republican gains suggest that Congressman Rod Blum, considered a goner and key to any Democrat takeover of the House, suddenly is in a tight race. Moreover, it suggests that IA1 is close, and that it may offer the Republicans a flip opportunity.
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Solar

Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 04:35:50 AM
Lets hope that  correct.
Since 2010, every Midterm has been a Red Wave. Are you still under the illusion that some how it died and the leftist message of hatred for our nation suddenly resonates with the majority?
I have to assume you live in a liberal bastion of depression, like say, NY or Baltimore?
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supsalemgr

Understanding Rush is an entertainer. However, yesterday he made a bold statement that the GOP would retain the house majority and add seats in the senate in his interview with Hannity.
"If you can't run with the big dawgs, stay on the porch!"

ldub23

Quote from: Solar on October 19, 2018, 07:33:30 AM
Since 2010, every Midterm has been a Red Wave. Are you still under the illusion that some how it died and the leftist message of hatred for our nation suddenly resonates with the majority?
I have to assume you live in a liberal bastion of depression, like say, NY or Baltimore?

I live  in VA where its unlikely  a rep will never a statewide election again. You might remember that  in 2010 and 2014 Obama was president and history says the  opposition gains seats  in congress. 2018 is the  opposite and history alone says reps will lose seats. We can only  hope reps show  up in NOV.

Solar

Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 12:42:22 PM
I live  in VA where its unlikely  a rep will never a statewide election again. You might remember that  in 2010 and 2014 Obama was president and history says the  opposition gains seats  in congress. 2018 is the  opposite and history alone says reps will lose seats. We can only  hope reps show  up in NOV.
You can't compare history to the current political climate. The Dims also lost over 1000 Legislative seats under Obozo, and they have yet to recoup even a fraction of those losses.
Then there's the issue of the disenfranchised voter over the decades, where half the electorate stayed home out of frustration over leftist gridlock in a two party leftist system, neither party representing the values of the voter, so apathy set in.
Point is, that source of votes is about to come to life, and 90% of them will be on the Right. Not only will we retain Congress, but we'll be picking up seats, the Dims will be humiliated in the coming Midterms, so much so, there will probably be a move to start an entirely new party, abandoning the DNC.
Don't doubt me on this, I've been studding politics as well as human nature/natural law for decades, and I've no doubt that the Right has made a comeback.
Why do you think there's an exorbitant amount of RINO retiring this election and in 2020? They've seen the internal polling, they know they're about to be kicked out of office, and just like the Dim party and its losing streak, the left is on the run.

When I 'm Right again, as usual, will you finally admit you've been wrong every time with your forecasts?
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Possum

Quote from: Solar on October 19, 2018, 01:31:44 PM
You can't compare history to the current political climate. The Dims also lost over 1000 Legislative seats under Obozo, and they have yet to recoup even a fraction of those losses.
Then there's the issue of the disenfranchised voter over the decades, where half the electorate stayed home out of frustration over leftist gridlock in a two party leftist system, neither party representing the values of the voter, so apathy set in.
Point is, that source of votes is about to come to life, and 90% of them will be on the Right. Not only will we retain Congress, but we'll be picking up seats, the Dims will be humiliated in the coming Midterms, so much so, there will probably be a move to start an entirely new party, abandoning the DNC.
Don't doubt me on this, I've been studding politics as well as human nature/natural law for decades, and I've no doubt that the Right has made a comeback.
Why do you think there's an exorbitant amount of RINO retiring this election and in 2020? They've seen the internal polling, they know they're about to be kicked out of office, and just like the Dim party and its losing streak, the left is on the run.

When I 'm Right again, as usual, will you finally admit you've been wrong every time with your forecasts?
Trump is filling up stadiums to overflowing during the midterms! The base is fired up. There is no dim who can fill up a stadium.  Hells bells, beto was going to be a part of that blue wave for the senate, polls said so! he is now 7 to 9 points behind and that is being kind, reality, he's out of there. :lol:

Solar

Quote from: s3779m on October 19, 2018, 03:40:32 PM
Trump is filling up stadiums to overflowing during the midterms! The base is fired up. There is no dim who can fill up a stadium.  Hells bells, beto was going to be a part of that blue wave for the senate, polls said so! he is now 7 to 9 points behind and that is being kind, reality, he's out of there. :lol:
:lol:
Yep, I'd double those numbers for Cruz, and after the votes are counted, it'll probably be closer to a 19 point spread.
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ldub23

Quote from: Solar on October 19, 2018, 01:31:44 PM
You can't compare history to the current political climate. The Dims also lost over 1000 Legislative seats under Obozo, and they have yet to recoup even a fraction of those losses.
Then there's the issue of the disenfranchised voter over the decades, where half the electorate stayed home out of frustration over leftist gridlock in a two party leftist system, neither party representing the values of the voter, so apathy set in.
Point is, that source of votes is about to come to life, and 90% of them will be on the Right. Not only will we retain Congress, but we'll be picking up seats, the Dims will be humiliated in the coming Midterms, so much so, there will probably be a move to start an entirely new party, abandoning the DNC.
Don't doubt me on this, I've been studding politics as well as human nature/natural law for decades, and I've no doubt that the Right has made a comeback.
Why do you think there's an exorbitant amount of RINO retiring this election and in 2020? They've seen the internal polling, they know they're about to be kicked out of office, and just like the Dim party and its losing streak, the left is on the run.

When I 'm Right again, as usual, will you finally admit you've been wrong every time with your forecasts?

And  i assume you will admit you were wrong as well come Nov. I would  love to be wrong but  i doubt that.

Solar

Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 06:50:18 PM
And  i assume you will admit you were wrong as well come Nov. I would  love to be wrong but  i doubt that.
Look back at all my predictions, the only one I've been wrong on was Cruz getting elected, but I was still right because I said it would be a Conservative getting elected in 2016, back before Cruz threw his hat in the ring.
Before that, I've been right about every midterm since, so what makes you think you can put your predictions up against mine?
I eat and breathe this shit and don't make these predictions based on emotion and fear, as you do.
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taxed

Quote from: ldub23 on October 19, 2018, 06:50:18 PM
And  i assume you will admit you were wrong as well come Nov. I would  love to be wrong but  i doubt that.

2010 we took the House.
2014 we took the Senate.
2016 we took the Presidency.
2018 we took the Supreme Court.

Yeah, we have no momentum.
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Solar

Quote from: taxed on October 19, 2018, 07:34:27 PM
2010 we took the House.
2014 we took the Senate.
2016 we took the Presidency.
2018 we took the Supreme Court.

Yeah, we have no momentum.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I never thought we could win so much in such a short amount of time, and it just keeps growing every week.
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mdgiles

The DemonRats, with their BS polls and collaborator media; are simply trying to depress GOP turnout. They actually believe the public wants to see Antifa riots and migrant mobs on their TV screens, every night.
"LIBERALS: their willful ignorance is rivaled only by their catastrophic stupidity"!

Solar

Quote from: mdgiles on October 20, 2018, 06:19:49 AM
The DemonRats, with their BS polls and collaborator media; are simply trying to depress GOP turnout. They actually believe the public wants to see Antifa riots and migrant mobs on their TV screens, every night.
Bingo!!!
Liberals love it when everyone is as miserable as them.
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ldub23

Quote from: taxed on October 19, 2018, 07:34:27 PM
2010 we took the House.
2014 we took the Senate.
2016 we took the Presidency.
2018 we took the Supreme Court.

Yeah, we have no momentum.

I can answer that  in this way. Dems won big in both 2006 and  2008. Lost  big  in 2010.