Gallup Predicting Historic Landslide?

Started by Solar, October 05, 2010, 03:03:52 PM

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Solar

I say yes, it will be, the pendulum has swung.

Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers  on the generic ballot question—which party's candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.

However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its "high turnout model" Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its "low turnout model" Republicans lead 56%-38%.

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like '94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.


Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallups-astonishing-numbers-and-the-lake-superior-congressional-districts-104321583.html#ixzz11WZcmEhG
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Cryptic Bert

it's going to be brutal but have the Pubs learned or are they just scared?

walkstall

In my state of Washington they will keep recounting the votes until the dem's come out on top.    :o 
Something about the new math keep counting until you have a dem.    ;D  ;D  ;D  ;D
A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

Solar

Quote from: Cryptic Bert on October 05, 2010, 03:06:37 PM
it's going to be brutal but have the Pubs learned or are they just scared?
Honestly, Hell No!
But they're about to get a lesson, once we water down the RINO in the party.
I believe Steele is about to learn just how angry we are about business as usual BS.
He'll be out on his ass, with no power to speak of.
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Cryptic Bert

Quote from: Solar on October 05, 2010, 03:25:21 PM
Honestly, Hell No!
But they're about to get a lesson, once we water down the RINO in the party.
I believe Steele is about to learn just how angry we are about business as usual BS.
He'll be out on his ass, with no power to speak of.

True. I think politics as usual may be done with. The Country will no longer tolerate it. if the GOP wins and doesn't come through they will be out on their ass the next election.

Solar

Quote from: Cryptic Bert on October 05, 2010, 03:33:11 PM
True. I think politics as usual may be done with. The Country will no longer tolerate it. if the GOP wins and doesn't come through they will be out on their ass the next election.
I agree, people think the Tea Party is merely a phase, but if the Pubs don't listen, they will have a new Party to contend with.
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Cryptic Bert

Quote from: Solar on October 05, 2010, 03:35:13 PM
I agree, people think the Tea Party is merely a phase, but if the Pubs don't listen, they will have a new Party to contend with.

I think it also means the Democrats will be a second tier party until they rid themselves of the Progressives...

Solar

Quote from: Cryptic Bert on October 05, 2010, 03:41:20 PM
I think it also means the Democrats will be a second tier party until they rid themselves of the Progressives...

:D
Which is a battle that will take years to win, if that's possible.
They too could even see a party split, which would only make it that much harder for them to win.
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Dan

Quote from: Solar on October 05, 2010, 03:35:13 PM
I agree, people think the Tea Party is merely a phase, but if the Pubs don't listen, they will have a new Party to contend with.

Bingo! Either Republicans get it right this time or they will go the way of the Whigs.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Solar

Quote from: Dan on October 05, 2010, 05:47:04 PM
Bingo! Either Republicans get it right this time or they will go the way of the Whigs.
I think they get it, but also think this will all blow over after the election.
Boy, are they in for a big ass surprise. ;D
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Dan

Quote from: Solar on October 05, 2010, 06:09:02 PM
I think they get it, but also think this will all blow over after the election.
Boy, are they in for a big ass surprise. ;D

The tea party is coming to kick ass and chew bubble gum.....and we're all out of bubble gum.

Bonus points if you know the movie that came from.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

walkstall

A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

pikebishop2010

Quote from: Dan on October 05, 2010, 06:15:15 PM
The tea party is coming to kick ass and chew bubble gum.....and we're all out of bubble gum.

Bonus points if you know the movie that came from.

Can't remember the title ( something to do with seeing aliens through glasses ), but I do know that the actor is "Rowdy Randy Piper" the wrestler.

zip

     I think the movie name was Theyre Alive or They live or something close to that