Quote from: SueAnn on January 27, 2016, 01:30:25 PM
Solar, isn't NH right after Iowa?  You really think there will de a decisive winner after only 1 caucus and 1 primary?   Sorry, Solar, I don't see it.

So I assume you find fault with my reply?

I just read an article that claims Bush is surging in New Hampshire......really? Surging with anger maybe?

Quote from: Double D on January 27, 2016, 06:55:20 PM
I just read an article that claims Bush is surging in New Hampshire......really? Surging with anger maybe?

Want a good laugh?
Yes folks, this was a joke, and not to be take seriously in anyway shape or form.
It was a class project. Why Realclear politics even posted it is beyond me.

Emerson   Trump 35,  Cruz 8,  Kasich 14,  Rubio 9,  Bush 18,  Christie 5,  Fiorina 3, Paul 3, Carson 3, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_fdba60d808d0424aabe75c667d268972.pdf   

Quote from: Solar on January 27, 2016, 07:01:30 PM
Want a good laugh?

Emerson   Trump 35,  Cruz 8,  Kasich 14,  Rubio 9,  Bush 18,  Christie 5,  Fiorina 3, Paul 3, Carson 3, Huckabee 1, Santorum 0
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_fdba60d808d0424aabe75c667d268972.pdf

Bush and Kasich are 2 and 3? 

Oh, someone please shoot me.

  :popcorn

Quote from: SueAnn on January 27, 2016, 07:25:51 PM
Bush and Kasich are 2 and 3? 

Oh, someone please shoot me.

Don't even take it partially serious, it's a college class full of libs that did it as a class project.
I looked at the internals, it was a literal joke.

Quote from: Solar on January 27, 2016, 01:52:33 PM
The media is over hyping Trump, his followers actually think he'll win Iowa, and when he gets creamed, they'll ask how's that possible?
Then come New Hampshire, another blistering only worse yet for two reasons. One, half his base are libs, they're only backing him because they think he can win, they're also one issue voters.
In the interim after Iowa, Cruz will expose Trump's immigration policy for the revolving door it is, this will devastate the base.

Now comes New Hampshire, a closed primary state, one where you have to register with the party of the candidate you plan on voting for.
Libs will never register Pub, ever! They were raised to despise everything GOP, so they once again, won't be voting for Trump.
Now that Trump has had his clock cleaned a second time even worse than the first, his humiliated base will begin to lose hope.

So far Trump's entire campaign has depended on the media propping him up, case in point.
The Edge: Trump gets 25 times more media mentions than GOP field combined
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/12/11/edge-trump-gets-25-times-more-media-mentions-than-gop-field-combined.html

He has literally no ground game, none, 30 people in Iowa, Cruz has 700 volunteers canvasing the entire state.
Now with only the media pulling for him, a base fading fast as Cruz exposes his lies and hypocrisy, Trump will have to make a decision as how he'll move forward.
He's a numbers guy, seldom uses his own money unless he's certain of a return, so he's faced with spending millions of his own money and continuing to fall further behind, or simply fade away, just like he has every time he ran.

Now there are other factors that can keep him afloat like a turd on a lake, and that would be the GOP'e which could keep him in the running indefinitely.
That's an unknown, but if they don't, it's basically over for the fraud.

Solar, Thank you for your lengthy, well thought out reply. I hope it happens as you say, I just don't think it will.  I think Trump is going to win Iowa and NH.  I don't think he is going away for a while, maybe never.

Hubby said something tonight that really set me back for a minute.  He said that he has decided that Trump is a NO for him.  He sees too much of Obama in Trump and believes that 4 years of Trump would just be a continuation of 4 more years of Obama.  Trump. like Obama, is all EGO.

What is starting to make me nervous is that the videos I have seen of Trump speaking to crowds has the same "feel" as Obama in 2008.  Remember? An almost other-worldly hypnotic trance came over the people when he spoke.  Gave me the Willies then and it starting to do the same thing now when I watch Trump. 

And Solar..."afloat like a turd on a lake"???   

Quote from: SueAnn on January 27, 2016, 07:46:19 PM
Solar, Thank you for your lengthy, well thought out reply. I hope it happens as you say, I just don't think it will.  I think Trump is going to win Iowa and NH.  I don't think he is going away for a while, maybe never.

Hubby said something tonight that really set me back for a minute.  He said that he has decided that Trump is a NO for him.  He sees too much of Obama in Trump and believes that 4 years of Trump would just be a continuation of 4 more years of Obama.  Trump. like Obama, is all EGO.

What is starting to make me nervous is that the videos I have seen of Trump speaking to crowds has the same "feel" as Obama in 2008. Remember? An almost other-worldly hypnotic trance came over the people when he spoke.  Gave me the Willies then and it starting to do the same thing now when I watch Trump. 

And Solar..."afloat like a turd on a lake"??? 

That's because it's the same people as back then, except they now hate the Dim party, and their attraction to Trump is, he's not a Conservative.
Most are one issue voters (the wall) but when they discover it's all a lie, they'll be lost and probably vote for Sanders.
I know this may all come as a surprise to you, but more than half Trump's base are libs and the other half LIV.

Yeah, he is afloat in his own little pond.

Quote from: Solar on January 27, 2016, 07:54:59 PM
That's because it's the same people as back then, except they now hate the Dim party, and their attraction to Trump is, he's not a Conservative.
Most are one issue voters (the wall) but when they discover it's all a lie, they'll be lost and probably vote for Sanders.
I know this may all come as a surprise to you, but more than half Trump's base are libs and the other half LIV.

Yeah, he is afloat in his own little pond.

Solar, When you say it is the same people who were mesmerized by Obama, are you talking about the black people, the white people, or both?  You think half of Trump's supporters are liberals? Wow, that does not bode well for Hillary, Sanders or Cruz. 

Are there any poll results that are broken down by race?  I would like to see them.

Why do you think these Democrats who are polling for Trump now hate the Democratic party?

Why do you think Trump's promise to build a wall is a lie?

Solar, if you get tired of my questions just let me know.  I don't want to be a pest.  I just am hungry for knowledge and wisdom, but I do not want to be a pain-in-the-neck to anyone in the process...particularly to someone as nice as you.

Quote from: SueAnn on January 27, 2016, 07:46:19 PM
Solar, Thank you for your lengthy, well thought out reply. I hope it happens as you say, I just don't think it will.  I think Trump is going to win Iowa and NH.  I don't think he is going away for a while, maybe never.

Hubby said something tonight that really set me back for a minute.  He said that he has decided that Trump is a NO for him.  He sees too much of Obama in Trump and believes that 4 years of Trump would just be a continuation of 4 more years of Obama.  Trump. like Obama, is all EGO.

What is starting to make me nervous is that the videos I have seen of Trump speaking to crowds has the same "feel" as Obama in 2008.  Remember? An almost other-worldly hypnotic trance came over the people when he spoke.  Gave me the Willies then and it starting to do the same thing now when I watch Trump. 

And Solar..."afloat like a turd on a lake"??? 

Even if Solar is painting too rosy a picture, as probably most of us believe, the recent incident of Trump boycotting the debate figures to be decisive. The "boycott" and the debate, taken together as two parts of the same event, will likely not be adequately factored in by the time the final polls are taken. Figure polling will run into Saturday for publication on Sunday, and they generally don't sample just two days, so we won't know the full effect. We could start to get some hints though out of polls released as early as tomorrow.

I would say the fallout has to hurt Trump, just depends how much -- the debate tomorrow night will determine much of that. I expect the other candidates to go after Trump hard every chance they get. No reason to let an opportunity like that go to waste.

The spin from the Trump crowd is just that -- spin. Trump messed up badly; got taken to school by Roger Ailes. The prevailing theme coming out of it is that Trump is too temperamental and erratic to be President, and that he's too quick to take offense. A lot of people see that he's just offering thin excuses -- that isn't just the opposition spin, it's the general perception. He can't win undecideds that way. Cruz, and in fact everyone else, will close stronger because of it.

The effect figures to go beyond just Iowa. This might have been -- probably was -- a defining moment for Trump. I wouldn't say that means he won't still win in New Hampshire (establishment state with the establishment vote split at least 4 ways), but it hinders him severely down the road.

The results in Iowa will tell us a lot about the future of the race. I expect Cruz to win, but I won't be comfortable until it actually happens. If Trump somehow manages to sneak through, it's still a long race, even after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Quote from: taxed on January 27, 2016, 11:53:42 AM
Oh how I would love for them to play it during the debate.  I would wet myself.

Note to self:  Mail some of Mom's extra Depends to Taxed. 

Quote from: Dori on January 27, 2016, 05:25:23 PM
These are most of the R dates, check the link for more detail

February 1  Iowa
February 9  NH
February 23  Nevada
February 27  South Carolina

March 1  Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, No. Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming.

March 5 Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine
March 6 Puerto Rico
March 8 Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi
March 15 Florida, Illinois, Missouri, No. Carolina.
March 22 Arizona, Utah

April 5 Wisconsin
April 19 New York
April 26 Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

May 3 Indiana
May 10 Nebraska, West Virginia
May 17 Oregon
May 24 Washington

June 7  California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, So. Dakota

http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/

Sheesh I knew Ohio holds it's primaries late, but we're not even on the list! LOL

Naw seriously we vote in March. The 15th actually. 

Erikson read my mail!

I was thinking about this sort of thing the other day when I was cleaning the bathroom (seriously). Why doesn't anyone use all of Trump's own words against him? He's always on the tele with everyone.

If this ad doesn't work we are doomed as a species.

Quote from: Cali Contrarian on January 27, 2016, 09:00:09 PM
Even if Solar is painting too rosy a picture, as probably most of us believe, the recent incident of Trump boycotting the debate figures to be decisive. The "boycott" and the debate, taken together as two parts of the same event, will likely not be adequately factored in by the time the final polls are taken. Figure polling will run into Saturday for publication on Sunday, and they generally don't sample just two days, so we won't know the full effect. We could start to get some hints though out of polls released as early as tomorrow.

I would say the fallout has to hurt Trump, just depends how much -- the debate tomorrow night will determine much of that. I expect the other candidates to go after Trump hard every chance they get. No reason to let an opportunity like that go to waste.

The spin from the Trump crowd is just that -- spin. Trump messed up badly; got taken to school by Roger Ailes. The prevailing theme coming out of it is that Trump is too temperamental and erratic to be President, and that he's too quick to take offense. A lot of people see that he's just offering thin excuses -- that isn't just the opposition spin, it's the general perception. He can't win undecideds that way. Cruz, and in fact everyone else, will close stronger because of it.

The effect figures to go beyond just Iowa. This might have been -- probably was -- a defining moment for Trump. I wouldn't say that means he won't still win in New Hampshire (establishment state with the establishment vote split at least 4 ways), but it hinders him severely down the road.

The results in Iowa will tell us a lot about the future of the race. I expect Cruz to win, but I won't be comfortable until it actually happens. If Trump somehow manages to sneak through, it's still a long race, even after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Very interesting analyss, Cali.  I guess all we can do is wait and watch, huh? 

Quote from: SueAnn on January 27, 2016, 08:29:04 PM
Solar, When you say it is the same people who were mesmerized by Obama, are you talking about the black people, the white people, or both?

Stupid is never limited by race.

QuoteYou think half of Trump's supporters are liberals? Wow, that does not bode well for Hillary, Sanders or Cruz. 

Yes, it the one issue the media avoids talking about, and yes, from my own knowledge including that of polling.

QuoteAre there any poll results that are broken down by race?  I would like to see them.

The only ones I've seen were designed to make it look like blacks supported Trump, but all they did was show that the other Pub candidates got zero, while Trump's numbers showed a little leaning support.

QuoteWhy do you think these Democrats who are polling for Trump now hate the Democratic party?

Because they were putright lied to on every issue, but the one that woke them up, was the hype over free health care.

QuoteWhy do you think Trump's promise to build a wall is a lie?

The border fence/wall is already law, but the House refuses to fund it. What makes Trump any better at getting funding?
And that "Mexico will pay for it is complete BS.
Then there are the details of his plan for illegals, which is nothing more than a revolving door.

QuoteSolar, if you get tired of my questions just let me know.  I don't want to be a pest.  I just am hungry for knowledge and wisdom, but I do not want to be a pain-in-the-neck to anyone in the process...particularly to someone as nice as you.

Shhh....you'll kill my image as an ass hole.