Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 05:46:01 AM
The polling in 2016 wasn't all that wrong. Hillary won the Popular Vote and the results were within the margin of error.

She just lost the strategy battle. That's why I look at State polls, National polls mean absolutely nothing.

That said, even if the State polls were as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden would still win. Trump has to narrow that gap. In 2016 his campaign had momentum with the emails scandal.

What's going to push him over the top this year?

sn: We can have a one on one discussion about Joe if you'd like. PM and we'll get deep into it without interference

That's the while point of a forum. If you think biden will win, what do you see as the main driving point he has to get the voters out? They sure are not going to his rallies. The only item I see that old joe has is orange man bad. To be honest, I don't think joe himself has any enthusiasm for the presidency, I think he is just running to keep hunter out of prison. His policies have changed so much whether it is fracking, healthcare, warming, taxes, courts, etc., i do not see him being passionate about any of them. He has yet to state a vision for the future, unless you consider looting or taking a lid a future. I have seen in three short years what Trump can do with the economy, I have seen him pulling back the troops, I have seen him go toe to toe on getting fair trade deals, I have seen him insist our allies pay their share for their own protection, etc, Joe has been in office 47 years, what is he holding up?   

Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 05:46:01 AM
The polling in 2016 wasn't all that wrong. Hillary won the Popular Vote and the results were within the margin of error.

She just lost the strategy battle. That's why I look at State polls, National polls mean absolutely nothing.

That said, even if the State polls were as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden would still win. Trump has to narrow that gap. In 2016 his campaign had momentum with the emails scandal.

What's going to push him over the top this year?

sn: We can have a one on one discussion about Joe if you'd like. PM and we'll get deep into it without interference

Once again you prove yourself to be the lying troll you are.

Quote from: Possum on October 18, 2020, 06:12:59 AM
That's the while point of a forum. If you think biden will win, what do you see as the main driving point he has to get the voters out? They sure are not going to his rallies. The only item I see that old joe has is orange man bad. To be honest, I don't think joe himself has any enthusiasm for the presidency, I think he is just running to keep hunter out of prison. His policies have changed so much whether it is fracking, healthcare, warming, taxes, courts, etc., i do not see him being passionate about any of them. He has yet to state a vision for the future, unless you consider looting or taking a lid a future. I have seen in three short years what Trump can do with the economy, I have seen him pulling back the troops, I have seen him go toe to toe on getting fair trade deals, I have seen him insist our allies pay their share for their own protection, etc, Joe has been in office 47 years, what is he holding up?   

I think that when you get down to it, Joe's policies are better than Don's. But, the motivating factor for all of those people enthusiastically mailing their votes in and waiting in like for 10 hours on the first day or early voting is getting rid of Trump, imo.

He has just as many people that are passionately in his camp, as are passionately against him.

Look at this polling from 2016:

The Real Clear Politics average of national polls showed Trump down by 3.3 percentage points; the New York Times still projects Trump will lose the popular vote by 0.6 points. And most of the battleground states that decided the winner of the Electoral College were pretty close to the final RCP polling average (with one big exception).

Florida: The RCP polling average showed Trump leading by 0.2; he's projected to win by 1.4.

New Hampshire: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 0.6; he's projected to lose by 0.1.

North Carolina: The RCP polling average showed Trump up 1.0; he's projected to win by 3.8.

Nevada: The RCP polling average showed Trump up 0.8; he's projected to lose by 2.4.

Colorado: The RCP polling average showed Trump down 2.9; he's projected to lose by 3.9.

Pennsylvania: The RCP polling average showed Trump down 1.9; he's projected to win by 1.0.

Michigan: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 3.4; he's projected to win by 0.2.

Ohio: The RCP polling average showed Trump up by 3.5; he's projected to win by 8.5.

Wisconsin: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 6.5; he's projected to win by 0.9.

As you can see, Trump under-performed his polling averages in Nevada and Colorado, and he exceeded expectations the critical states he needed to win the Electoral College. Michigan is the perfect example. And the only huge polling miss in the presidential race was Wisconsin, where even the gold-standard Marquette poll finally got it wrong.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/donald-trump?source=%2Fweekly-standard%2Fthe-presidential-polls-werent-that-far-off

It was pretty damn accurate. Well within the Margins of Error, save Wisconsin.

If the polls are off by the same amount this time. Trump would lose.

Quote from: Solar on October 18, 2020, 06:11:52 AM
OMG!!! There for awhile that's all you went on about, freakin polls, stats, numbers, all proven wrong, and now suddenly you claim you really don't like polls while posting bogus poll numbers/stats?

Man, you are one incorrigible kid! Do you still stick your tongue on frozen poles in the winter?

http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/profile/?area=showposts;u=8010

Here you go. Feel free to point it out.

I think you might be confusing me posting Early Voting numbers with polls.

Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 06:36:48 AM
I think that when you get down to it, Joe's policies are better than Don's. But, the motivating factor for all of those people enthusiastically mailing their votes in and waiting in like for 10 hours on the first day or early voting is getting rid of Trump, imo.

He has just as many people that are passionately in his camp, as are passionately against him.

Look at this polling from 2016:

The Real Clear Politics average of national polls showed Trump down by 3.3 percentage points; the New York Times still projects Trump will lose the popular vote by 0.6 points. And most of the battleground states that decided the winner of the Electoral College were pretty close to the final RCP polling average (with one big exception).

Florida: The RCP polling average showed Trump leading by 0.2; he's projected to win by 1.4.

New Hampshire: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 0.6; he's projected to lose by 0.1.

North Carolina: The RCP polling average showed Trump up 1.0; he's projected to win by 3.8.

Nevada: The RCP polling average showed Trump up 0.8; he's projected to lose by 2.4.

Colorado: The RCP polling average showed Trump down 2.9; he's projected to lose by 3.9.

Pennsylvania: The RCP polling average showed Trump down 1.9; he's projected to win by 1.0.

Michigan: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 3.4; he's projected to win by 0.2.

Ohio: The RCP polling average showed Trump up by 3.5; he's projected to win by 8.5.

Wisconsin: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 6.5; he's projected to win by 0.9.

As you can see, Trump under-performed his polling averages in Nevada and Colorado, and he exceeded expectations the critical states he needed to win the Electoral College. Michigan is the perfect example. And the only huge polling miss in the presidential race was Wisconsin, where even the gold-standard Marquette poll finally got it wrong.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/donald-trump?source=%2Fweekly-standard%2Fthe-presidential-polls-werent-that-far-off

It was pretty damn accurate. Well within the Margins of Error, save Wisconsin.

If the polls are off by the same amount this time. Trump would lose.


http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/profile/?area=showposts;u=8010

Here you go. Feel free to point it out.

I think you might be confusing me posting Early Voting numbers with polls.

What policies? You have to vote for Sleepy Joe so he can win.  Then you will see his so called policies. 

Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 05:46:01 AM
The polling in 2016 wasn't all that wrong. Hillary won the Popular Vote and the results were within the margin of error.

She just lost the strategy battle. That's why I look at State polls, National polls mean absolutely nothing.

That said, even if the State polls were as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden would still win. Trump has to narrow that gap. In 2016 his campaign had momentum with the emails scandal.

What's going to push him over the top this year?

sn: We can have a one on one discussion about Joe if you'd like. PM and we'll get deep into it without interference

Wrong!!!

https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/new-report-exposes-thousands-illegal-votes-2016-election





https://thinkamericana.com/hillary-not-win-popular-vote-another-lie-exposed/

Quote from: Solar on October 18, 2020, 06:54:38 AM
Wrong!!!

https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/new-report-exposes-thousands-illegal-votes-2016-election

http://www.g-a-i.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Voter-Fraud-Final-with-Appendix-1.pdf

Have you read that report? It's even less accurate than polling. Basically, if there are two people named  "John Smith' they'd call it fraud



Anywho..here's the information from the FEC who actually has access to the data that your report said was unobtainable.

https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf

Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 and lost the electoral college by less than 100k voters across 3 States. Biden has to make up that gap to win this year. It looks like he has a good chance.

Quote from: Solar on October 18, 2020, 06:54:38 AM
Wrong!!!

https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/new-report-exposes-thousands-illegal-votes-2016-election





https://thinkamericana.com/hillary-not-win-popular-vote-another-lie-exposed/

Worth the full Read!

Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 07:04:49 AM


http://www.g-a-i.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Voter-Fraud-Final-with-Appendix-1.pdf

Have you read that report? It's even less accurate than polling. Basically, if there are two people named  "John Smith' they'd call it fraud



Anywho..here's the information from the FEC who actually has access to the data that your report said was unobtainable.

https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf

Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 and lost the electoral college by less than 100k voters across 3 States. Biden has to make up that gap to win this year. It looks like he has a good chance.

Joe, with all the proven fraud since, it's clear Hillary won absolutely nothing! Just like now, the left is trying to fraud the election with mail in ballots, and like then, the left will lose.
Are you denying the mail in ballot scheme is really above board? That counting ballots days after the polls close isn't fraud?

https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/new-report-exposes-thousands-illegal-votes-2016-election

https://www.dailysignal.com/2014/06/01/justice-department-blind-virginia-voter-fraud/

https://youtu.be/ptSrcNvJzBQ

https://youtu.be/q_iJfnbMzI0

https://youtu.be/tBa7SZ8FK-Q

So...you already stated your position yesterday.

If Trump wins, you trust the results.

If Trump loses, you'll say it was fraud.

I don't think there's any point in discussing your emotions on the subject.

Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 07:29:20 AM
So...you already stated your position yesterday.

If Trump wins, you trust the results.

If Trump loses, you'll say it was fraud.

I don't think there's any point in discussing your emotions on the subject.

So you run away in the face of evidence? You and I both know Biden doesn't have a prayer of winning legitimately, yet here you are carrying his water in a sieve.

Go away Joe, you're embarrassing yourself.

Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 06:36:48 AM
I think that when you get down to it, Joe's policies are better than Don's. But, the motivating factor for all of those people enthusiastically mailing their votes in and waiting in like for 10 hours on the first day or early voting is getting rid of Trump, imo.

He has just as many people that are passionately in his camp, as are passionately against him.

Look at this polling from 2016:

The Real Clear Politics average of national polls showed Trump down by 3.3 percentage points; the New York Times still projects Trump will lose the popular vote by 0.6 points. And most of the battleground states that decided the winner of the Electoral College were pretty close to the final RCP polling average (with one big exception).

Florida: The RCP polling average showed Trump leading by 0.2; he's projected to win by 1.4.

New Hampshire: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 0.6; he's projected to lose by 0.1.

North Carolina: The RCP polling average showed Trump up 1.0; he's projected to win by 3.8.

Nevada: The RCP polling average showed Trump up 0.8; he's projected to lose by 2.4.

Colorado: The RCP polling average showed Trump down 2.9; he's projected to lose by 3.9.

Pennsylvania: The RCP polling average showed Trump down 1.9; he's projected to win by 1.0.

Michigan: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 3.4; he's projected to win by 0.2.

Ohio: The RCP polling average showed Trump up by 3.5; he's projected to win by 8.5.

Wisconsin: The RCP polling average showed Trump down by 6.5; he's projected to win by 0.9.

As you can see, Trump under-performed his polling averages in Nevada and Colorado, and he exceeded expectations the critical states he needed to win the Electoral College. Michigan is the perfect example. And the only huge polling miss in the presidential race was Wisconsin, where even the gold-standard Marquette poll finally got it wrong.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/donald-trump?source=%2Fweekly-standard%2Fthe-presidential-polls-werent-that-far-off

It was pretty damn accurate. Well within the Margins of Error, save Wisconsin.

If the polls are off by the same amount this time. Trump would lose.


http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/profile/?area=showposts;u=8010

Here you go. Feel free to point it out.

I think you might be confusing me posting Early Voting numbers with polls.

Then discuss them. Don't keep going back to poll numbers. It is hard to have a discussion about politics or whatever if your audience does not accept your sources, either abandon your source or convince your audience that it is correct.

Joe6pak, here's a question about #'s for you, 30% of the 1000's at the Trump rallies are democrats, how many of the 6 or 7 at the biden rallies do you think are republicans?

Quote from: Possum on October 18, 2020, 06:12:59 AM
That's the while point of a forum. If you think biden will win, what do you see as the main driving point he has to get the voters out? They sure are not going to his rallies. The only item I see that old joe has is orange man bad. To be honest, I don't think joe himself has any enthusiasm for the presidency, I think he is just running to keep hunter out of prison. His policies have changed so much whether it is fracking, healthcare, warming, taxes, courts, etc., i do not see him being passionate about any of them. He has yet to state a vision for the future, unless you consider looting or taking a lid a future. I have seen in three short years what Trump can do with the economy, I have seen him pulling back the troops, I have seen him go toe to toe on getting fair trade deals, I have seen him insist our allies pay their share for their own protection, etc, Joe has been in office 47 years, what is he holding up?

"I think that when you get down to it, Joe's policies are better than Don's."

If you know what his plans are, please share. All I have heard is, "I have a plan".

What is his economic plan?

What is his fracking plan?

What is his plan on packing the SC?

What is Covid plan?

Quote from: supsalemgr on October 18, 2020, 09:06:39 AM
"I think that when you get down to it, Joe's policies are better than Don's."

If you know what his plans are, please share. All I have heard is, "I have a plan".

What is his economic plan?

What is his fracking plan?

What is his plan on packing the SC?

What is Covid plan?

I trust that you're a voter that likes to research candidate's stances before you vote for them.

https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/#

Check out Joe's.


Also, I reacently heard to pretty good podcast episodes that touched on them both

Joe's:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/podcasts/the-daily/joe-biden-policies-election.html

and Don's:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/podcasts/the-daily/donald-trump-election.html

Like I said, I like Biden's more. You're free to decide which one you like and vote for the candidate.

Quote from: Possum on October 18, 2020, 08:59:06 AM
Joe6pak, here's a question about #'s for you, 30% of the 1000's at the Trump rallies are democrats, how many of the 6 or 7 at the biden rallies do you think are republicans?

Don't know. Additionally, we don't know for sure if those Trump rally #'s are accurate either. No one has ever seen them or verified them.

Quote from: Possum on October 18, 2020, 08:55:50 AM
Then discuss them. Don't keep going back to poll numbers. It is hard to have a discussion about politics or whatever if your audience does not accept your sources, either abandon your source or convince your audience that it is correct.

Why would I abandon a reputable source? Either refute the information directly or accept it as fact. If you choose to dismiss it then there's no point in conversing.

Quote from: joesixpack on October 18, 2020, 09:18:09 AM
I trust that you're a voter that likes to research candidate's stances before you vote for them.

https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/#

Check out Joe's.


Also, I reacently heard to pretty good podcast episodes that touched on them both

Joe's:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/podcasts/the-daily/joe-biden-policies-election.html

and Don's:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/15/podcasts/the-daily/donald-trump-election.html

Like I said, I like Biden's more. You're free to decide which one you like and vote for the candidate.

Don't know. Additionally, we don't know for sure if those Trump rally #'s are accurate either. No one has ever seen them or verified them.


Why would I abandon a reputable source? Either refute the information directly or accept it as fact. If you choose to dismiss it then there's no point in conversing.

NY Times is not a reputable source Joe the lying commie troll.