Quote from: joesixpack on October 23, 2020, 12:35:23 PM
I just saw a video that said the D's have a 96% chance of retaining the House.

If that's the case, I think the Presidency is locked up, but also, the Senate might be theirs too.

Reason being, the House is guaranteed to stay with the D's, imo. I don't think anyone here would disagree.

The same video said that if Biden retains the States that Clinton won, it puts him at a 97% chance of victory. So, that's a guarantee too, imo.

If that happens, the Senate would definitely be in play for the Dems to take control in.

the video was posted today on the "Let's Talk Elections" YT page

Are you trying to convince us or yourself?

I didn't think GA was truly in play but this information has made me think it's going to Biden:

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-made-more-competitive-by-1m-new-voters-since-16-election/HILWB73PC5ECNFZMYCA67LPRGI/

1 million new voters since 2016

2/3 thirds of those are POC

Georgia generally is not a retirement state so it's unlikely that older voters that skew Republican are the other third. It's more likely those are younger white people that are college graduates.

The last three presidential elections were decided consistently in the 200K range

The last governor's race was 50K

Especially since so many older people of color have already turned out with more than a week left. These have to be infrequent voters, but they're certainly motivated.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320456864296013830?s=20


Additionally, based on the breakdown of whose voted and how Independents are voting, Biden might have NC and FL as well.

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1320426372028895237?s=20

https://twitter.com/skywalkm/status/1320466804737757185?s=20

I'm pairing that information with the callers to our local radio show. Most of the Independents went to Biden.

You can listen to it here: https://www.wlrn.org/podcast/the-florida-roundup/2020-10-23/floridas-independent-voters-are-split-on-presidential-candidates

Unless this turns around in the next week. We might be looking at a Biden blowout

Quote from: joesixpack on October 25, 2020, 04:24:23 PM
I didn't think GA was truly in play but this information has made me think it's going to Biden:

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-made-more-competitive-by-1m-new-voters-since-16-election/HILWB73PC5ECNFZMYCA67LPRGI/

1 million new voters since 2016

2/3 thirds of those are POC

Georgia generally is not a retirement state so it's unlikely that older voters that skew Republican are the other third. It's more likely those are younger white people that are college graduates.

The last three presidential elections were decided consistently in the 200K range

The last governor's race was 50K

Especially since so many older people of color have already turned out with more than a week left. These have to be infrequent voters, but they're certainly motivated.

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1320456864296013830?s=20


Additionally, based on the breakdown of whose voted and how Independents are voting, Biden might have NC and FL as well.

https://twitter.com/matthewjdowd/status/1320426372028895237?s=20

https://twitter.com/skywalkm/status/1320466804737757185?s=20

I'm pairing that information with the callers to our local radio show. Most of the Independents went to Biden.

You can listen to it here: https://www.wlrn.org/podcast/the-florida-roundup/2020-10-23/floridas-independent-voters-are-split-on-presidential-candidates

Unless this turns around in the next week. We might be looking at a Biden blowout

Here's the problem Joe the lying commie troll you keep referencing POLLS!  Only idiots like you believe the polls. POTUS Hitlary doesn't believe the polls so why do you?

Moved to Conspiracy Forum, because the polls are all lies!

Biden will get his ass handed to him, and the DNC party will collapse!

this thread has almost 140 responses and only 5 or 6 polls were posted. if the Election Countdown thread is a conspiracy, there's no hope that self professed Trump Cult members will be happy with the results on November 3rd.

Quote from: Possum on October 23, 2020, 02:40:59 PM
Are you trying to convince us or yourself?

I think he's trying to convince himself, but he knows he's lying...

Quote from: joesixpack on October 25, 2020, 06:09:06 PM
this thread has almost 140 responses and only 5 or 6 polls were posted. if the Election Countdown thread is a conspiracy, there's no hope that self professed Trump Cult members will be happy with the results on November 3rd.

Why would we not be happy with Biden getting trounced?

You make no sense.

Quote from: taxed on October 25, 2020, 07:01:26 PM
Why would we not be happy with Biden getting trounced?

You make no sense.

I'm on record predicting a win for Biden. I think the Independents are going to carry him home and turnout will be almost equal for D's and R's.

A better question is why the Election Countdown is considered a 'conspiracy'.

The election is certainly going to happen, no reason this shouldn't be in the main forum.

why are you guys allowing my sock to post?   

Quote from: Calypso Jones on October 25, 2020, 08:04:43 PM
why are you guys allowing my sock to post?   

For one thing, he is making a fool of himself all on his own.   

Quote from: joesixpack on October 25, 2020, 07:09:48 PM
I'm on record predicting a win for Biden. I think the Independents are going to carry him home and turnout will be almost equal for D's and R's.

A better question is why the Election Countdown is considered a 'conspiracy'.

The election is certainly going to happen, no reason this shouldn't be in the main forum.

You truly are delusional, Independents went to Trump long ago. Joe hasn't a chance in Hell, which no doubt, he'll be discovering soon enough. all by himself, closely followed by a suicidal Hunter.

Quote from: joesixpack on October 25, 2020, 07:09:48 PM
I'm on record predicting a win for Biden.

Nobody said you were smart.

QuoteI think

You don't think; you're stupid.

Quotethe Independents are going to carry him home and turnout will be almost equal for D's and R's.

A better question is why the Election Countdown is considered a 'conspiracy'.

The election is certainly going to happen, no reason this shouldn't be in the main forum.

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.  It's annoying for people to listen to someone who is stupid try and have opinions on things.

Quote from: joesixpack on October 25, 2020, 04:24:23 PM


Unless this turns around in the next week. We might be looking at a Biden blowout

Well, ol joe is sure trying to turn it around, he announced he has put a lid on ALL OF HIS CAMPAIGNING nine days out from the election.  He's tired.

Quote from: taxed on October 25, 2020, 10:11:13 PM
Nobody said you were smart.


You don't think; you're stupid.


You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.  It's annoying for people to listen to someone who is stupid try and have opinions on things.

I doubt he believes 99% of the shit he posts, seeing how he's paid to play the fool.

Quote from: Possum on October 26, 2020, 04:30:00 AM
Well, ol joe is sure trying to turn it around, he announced he has put a lid on ALL OF HIS CAMPAIGNING nine days out from the election.  He's tired.

I don't know what you're talking about...Biden is scheduled to come to South Florida later this week.

If things continue as they are, I'm thinking he might get more Electoral Votes than Obama did