Here's an interesting interactive article from RCP. About 3/4 of the way down there is the interactive portion of the article that allows various scenarios that could determine the outcome of the 2016 election. Give it a try, it's pretty interesting to see what a few percentage points can make.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html