Quote from: Solar on October 23, 2020, 06:17:43 PM
And you're a liar! You get all your news from leftist sites, otherwise you'd see the truth. Hell, you even believe the fuckin polls!

Again, you are  making assumptions without facts. What  news  i get  i get  from quite a few  twitter accounts with the  most  leftist  one being  possibly Daniel Horowitz. As far as Trump's  momentum i think that  began with the  VP debate. Pence did an outstanding  job and Trump helped  himself  last  night. And again turnout will be  key. In another thread i posted a  landmark communications  poll showing Trump 49-45 in georgia. An interesting  point  is the  final landmark GA  poll in 2016 the day before the election had  trump +3 and  he  ended  up +5.6 so its  possible  his  margin will be  bigger than 5.6 this time.

Quote from: ldub23 on October 23, 2020, 06:29:49 PM
Again, you are  making assumptions without facts. What  news  i get  i get  from quite a few  twitter accounts with the  most  leftist  one being  possibly Daniel Horowitz. As far as Trump's  momentum i think that  began with the  VP debate. Pence did an outstanding  job and Trump helped  himself  last  night. And again turnout will be  key. In another thread i posted a  landmark communications  poll showing Trump 49-45 in georgia. An interesting  point  is the  final landmark GA  poll in 2016 the day before the election had  trump +3 and  he  ended  up +5.6 so its  possible  his  margin will be  bigger than 5.6 this time.

Again, you're fuckin delusional! Not one damn thing has changed, outside more Dims escape the Marxist deathtrap daily, other than that, Trump has had a lock on this election since day one!
Tell me, what side pushes this delusion you cling to? Oh, the left? And why would you thing they're Right and we're not?

Because you're a gullible fuck that refuses to break away from their doom and gloom, that's why!
Why in the fuck are you even here?

Unlike the 2016 election, Punkin the Pollster isn't freely giving me anything (internal polls).
She's working the Florida state races this time, with a pretty good size crew.

From what she's said, the public polls serve one primary purpose, "to shape public opinion" - there is no need for them to be accurate, sample GOP / DEM / IND / UNdecided evenly, or throw out the non-registered voters.  One could take a poll of streetwalkers, pimps & homeless, "Would you vote for Joe Biden if he gave you free Rubbers & Hooch? - Y/N?" and come up with numbers like Hillary had. 

Internal pollsters better be accurate, and know how to reach people with ADs, or they're out-of-business the next election cycle.
Internal polls aren't published.  They're shifting away from the "telephone polls", usually some college kids trying to break into the game IMO, to social media & online activity.  People pay good money for internal polling, good or bad & it's always tied to the political ads, which says quite a lot about how stupid politicians are (If their ADs suck... so do they)... IMO... contrast that notion with the non-politician, President Donald Trump (libs hate that).  Better ADs, higher intelligence.. LOL

Quote from: Hoofer on October 24, 2020, 06:24:03 AM
Unlike the 2016 election, Punkin the Pollster isn't freely giving me anything (internal polls).
She's working the Florida state races this time, with a pretty good size crew.

From what she's said, the public polls serve one primary purpose, "to shape public opinion" - there is no need for them to be accurate, sample GOP / DEM / IND / UNdecided evenly, or throw out the non-registered voters.  One could take a poll of streetwalkers, pimps & homeless, "Would you vote for Joe Biden if he gave you free Rubbers & Hooch? - Y/N?" and come up with numbers like Hillary had. 

Good to hear from Punkin again. And she's spot on, public polls are for consumption of the public, they're pure junk.

QuoteInternal pollsters better be accurate, and know how to reach people with ADs, or they're out-of-business the next election cycle.
Internal polls aren't published.  They're shifting away from the "telephone polls", usually some college kids trying to break into the game IMO, to social media & online activity.  People pay good money for internal polling, good or bad & it's always tied to the political ads, which says quite a lot about how stupid politicians are (If their ADs suck... so do they)... IMO... contrast that notion with the non-politician, President Donald Trump (libs hate that).  Better ADs, higher intelligence.. LOL

It's not Biden's fault his ads are shitty, he just hasn't accomplished anything good for America to brag about.

Quote from: Solar on October 24, 2020, 07:13:23 AM
Good to hear from Punkin again. And she's spot on, public polls are for consumption of the public, they're pure junk.

It's not Biden's fault his ads are shitty, he just hasn't accomplished anything good for America to brag about.

He got filthy rich as a politician - bet he brags about that, all the time - which doesn't help his campaign!
( .... pinging Punkin - she says Trump probably gets it. but the SENATE is in play..
Graham is possibly OUT...  doesn't have anything on the Turtle... Icecubes chance in Hell of taking back the House.)

Pennsylvania is going to the Democrat side.
https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/pennsylvania-supreme-court-gives-democrats-a-win-on-mail-in-ballot-counting-issue-as-election-nears/?utm_source=mostpopular

""Thus, in determining whether the declaration is 'sufficient' for a mail-in or absentee ballot at canvassing, the county board is required to ascertain whether the declaration on the return envelope has been filled out, dated, and signed. This is the extent of the board's obligation in this regard," Todd wrote. "In assessing a declaration's sufficiency, there is nothing in this language which allows or compels a county board to compare signatures. Accordingly, we decline to read a signature comparison requirement into the plain and unambiguous language of the Election Code, as Intervenors urge us to do, inasmuch as the General Assembly has chosen not to include such a requirement at canvassing."

In short, the 370k ballots which were initially rejected, over signature issues - are being counted.

https://lawandcrime.com/2020-election/pa-gop-ask-u-s-supreme-court-to-halt-state-supreme-courts-ruling-extending-deadline-for-mail-in-ballots/

""By judicial fiat, that decision removed the principal method by which Pennsylvania structures its post-election process, permitting votes to be cast after Election Day and counted after Election Day," the Republican lawmakers wrote. "By doing so, the decision creates multiple election days after November 3, 2020, in violation of federal law since votes can be cast (i.e. voted) after November 3, 2020. The decision also usurped the Pennsylvania General Assembly's constitutionally-delegated authority to set the times, places, and manner of federal elections in Pennsylvania. This was done without any delegation of power to the state's Supreme Court or legislative consideration whatsoever."

The original Democratic challenge to Pennsylvania's "burdensome" election laws was fashioned as a response to the resurgent pandemic and its relationship to the currently in-progress general election. Similarly, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court couched their opinion in reference to the "various challenges" posed by the pandemic and the concomitant upsurge in mail-in voting due to fears of contracting the deadly virus.

But Republicans accused Democrats of "forum shopping" in bringing the case in Pennsylvania, and asserted that the state Supreme Court ruling was an "outlier" among other states wrestling with the same mail-in ballot deadline issue."

May as well consider Pennsylvania a solid BLUE.

Quote from: Hoofer on October 24, 2020, 11:32:36 AM
He got filthy rich as a politician - bet he brags about that, all the time - which doesn't help his campaign!
( .... pinging Punkin - she says Trump probably gets it. but the SENATE is in play..
Graham is possibly OUT...  doesn't have anything on the Turtle... Icecubes chance in Hell of taking back the House.)

I agree with all of that with the exception of the Senate. Internal polling aside, there just isn't enough excitement on the left, many on the left have been led to believe Joe will  win huge, so a shitload of libs will just sit and get high playing video games rather than stop and fill out a ballot.

The DNC knows this which is why they started ballot harvesting. I believe a lot of precincts will wind up in court, despite the fact Trump won on the 3rd.
So all those will be combed with a fine tooth comb, throwing out fraudulent ballots.

Keep in mind, nearly 30% of the base didn't even vote for Trump last time, add to that, all the libs and Independents including the black vote coming to the Right.
Believe me, the Senate is secure...

Quote from: Solar on October 24, 2020, 12:14:25 PM
I agree with all of that with the exception of the Senate. Internal polling aside, there just isn't enough excitement on the left, many on the left have been led to believe Joe will  win huge, so a shitload of libs will just sit and get high playing video games rather than stop and fill out a ballot.

The DNC knows this which is why they started ballot harvesting. I believe a lot of precincts will wind up in court, despite the fact Trump won on the 3rd.
So all those will be combed with a fine tooth comb, throwing out fraudulent ballots.

Keep in mind, nearly 30% of the base didn't even vote for Trump last time, add to that, all the libs and Independents including the black vote coming to the Right.
Believe me, the Senate is secure...

The big money is being poured into Senate races.
I've been supporting John James (MI) and Daniel Gade (VA) to flip those seats, James might, Gade... meh... depends on Trump's coattails.

Yep, I would be good with losing Graham (SC) & gaining James (MI).  Exchanging Mark Warner (VA) for Daniel Gade would be EXCELLENT!

PP just said all the early voting data should be available in each state, probably need to ASK / BEG for it.

Quote from: Hoofer on October 24, 2020, 12:44:44 PM
The big money is being poured into Senate races.
I've been supporting John James (MI) and Daniel Gade (VA) to flip those seats, James might, Gade... meh... depends on Trump's coattails.

Yep, I would be good with losing Graham (SC) & gaining James (MI).  Exchanging Mark Warner (VA) for Daniel Gade would be EXCELLENT!

PP just said all the early voting data should be available in each state, probably need to ASK / BEG for it.

I'm good with that! Grahmnasty will probably get a job with Paul Ryan, or join the now DNC Socialist party.

To summarize a bunch of txt msgs from PP....

a. Early voting is allowed in TX & OH for everyone, it has become a convenience thing.
b. It increases the turnout in the -40 voter group, but doesn't necessarily benefit one party over another.
c. Early voting is really a "wash" in the end - even this year (don't sweat it - whew!).
d. Regardless of the public rhetoric about early voting, the GOP campaigns are spending hundreds of thousands of $ promoting it.
e. PP said last month, they sent 70k worth of direct mail urging early voting,
f.  The effect of the direct mail, is seen when ballots are requested, and when the county gets them back (public record).

I... like a few others, don't like the idea of early voting - but the campaign managers / pollsters are all over it on the GOP side.  Times are a-changing... These Millennials are quite tech savy... she probably got all that wisdom from her mother!