Quote from: Solar on May 04, 2017, 05:08:27 AM
Half the time they can't even reach the ocean, and you think they can target a tiny chain of islands?
Besides, according to Dims, we can just move Guam.

Why, oh why do people think the NorKs cannot improve their admittedly shaky missile program? Although the Chinese have probably given them a majority of their equipment, there are other suppliers who will doubtlessly come forward at one of the various European arms bazaars. Here---have a bunch of stuff not infected by Stuxnet.

Let's say that the NorKs don't target say Honolulu (read, Pearl Harbor) and instead go for the gold and TRY TO take out San Diego and much of the U.S. Navy systems there. The attack would fail. The missile defense crews would have enough time to blow those things out of the sky.

But a shorter-range target, delivered from a North Korea submarine? Never underestimate an enemy too crazy to know when to stop.

Quote from: quiller on May 03, 2017, 08:10:49 PM
So it's OK that we lose Hawaii? Guam?

As you indicate, any hostile nuke detonation is not OK. The point is that a NK launch against the US mainland is highly unlikely. The US is reluctant to go in due to the specter of a China conflict. I believe that the US is taking a chance to see if China will act - if China doesn't take part in supporting stability in their region now, they never will.

China is quiet and powerful ... they are the ones that concern me more. Anyone remember the movie Cujo? Well, Kim Jong-un reminds me of Cujo but a chihuahua rather than a St. Bernard. He's the yipping little rotund KuJo that needs to cut back on his dog food. We need a good artist on this site ... photoshop his head on a chihuahua, army in the background with toy guns, missiles falling over - titled KuJo. Have our spy planes drop them over NK. The NK people could probably use a good laugh - even if Cujo won't be released there for a few more years.

There is little doubt that NK has nukes. But it is another matter whether their nuke can lift on their missiles. For that matter, whether they can achieve a good launch. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11813699 You've got to believe that KuJo is pressing his developers to produce under duress and that they are reporting more success to him than they actually attain just to keep their lives and the lives of their families.

He seems to be a very limited version of Hitler - just as crazy, less issues with health (from what I've seen), controlling the military power of NK. But much more boisterous. He doesn't seem to recognize the NK population as superior as Hitler did the "Aryan nation" but does seem to have this notion of exterminating other nations. Hitler came from humble beginnings but was driven by some insane hatred of certain groups - especially the Jews. Hitler's power over the military was his enabler and his illnesses seemed to produce mental instability and increase his resolve to make all others miserable who didn't align with him. I have no idea what drives the crazy KuJo?  He's had a pampered life and inherited his position that he could kick back and enjoy if he just shut up. All I can guess is that he think's he's god-like and wants to show it against those who don't bow to him? 

Regardless, I think most are waiting for China. I'm very surprised that they haven't taken action yet. I doubt that anyone would challenge their actions if China simply went in and shut KuJo down. It appears they are willing to take the patient route for now - cut off NK's trade. But that will also cost China ... but KuJo still won't miss a meal so I doubt an embargo or similar will be effective.

Fact: North Korea has a missile submarine fleet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_North_Korean_ships#Submarine

Quote from: quiller on May 04, 2017, 05:26:51 AM
Why, oh why do people think the NorKs cannot improve their admittedly shaky missile program? Although the Chinese have probably given them a majority of their equipment, there are other suppliers who will doubtlessly come forward at one of the various European arms bazaars. Here---have a bunch of stuff not infected by Stuxnet.

Let's say that the NorKs don't target say Honolulu (read, Pearl Harbor) and instead go for the gold and TRY TO take out San Diego and much of the U.S. Navy systems there. The attack would fail. The missile defense crews would have enough time to blow those things out of the sky.

But a shorter-range target, delivered from a North Korea submarine? Never underestimate an enemy too crazy to know when to stop.

Just because they can launch a missile is no reason to overreact. Anything they launch, and I mean anything, can be taken out, which is why we stationed THAAD on the DMZ.
When I was there, our biggest concern was a strike across the border because we were told we'd have 3 minutes to react.
To this day I still cringe when I hear a civil defence siren monthly test.

But fast forward nearly 50 years and we have all kinds of deterrents as well as defensive capabilities, including the Patriot batteries up and down the Z.
http://thediplomat.com/2017/03/us-starts-deploying-thaad-anti-missile-defense-system-in-south-korea/



By the way, China hates THAAD, which is one more reason to deploy it, it puts even more pressure on the commie Chinks.

I didn't say those submarines would be aiming missiles at the DMZ, but rather San Diego or other U.S. targets. You might cast doubt on their IMMEDIATE capabilities (which I say are better than advertised from such an ultra-secretive society!) but existence of a NorK sub capable of firing a missile --- say for an EMP blast --- says they don't even need to hit a physical target. Just aim up and the entire electrical grid goes down.

Quote from: quiller on May 04, 2017, 06:40:16 AM
I didn't say those submarines would be aiming missiles at the DMZ, but rather San Diego or other U.S. targets. You might cast doubt on their IMMEDIATE capabilities (which I say are better than advertised from such an ultra-secretive society!) but existence of a NorK sub capable of firing a missile --- say for an EMP blast --- says they don't even need to hit a physical target. Just aim up and the entire electrical grid goes down.

You mean the Romeo class diesel?

http://www.militaryfactory.com/ships/detail.asp?ship_id=romeo-class-diesel-electric-attack-submarine-soviet-union

Quote from: Solar on May 04, 2017, 06:56:55 AM
You mean the Romeo class diesel?

http://www.militaryfactory.com/ships/detail.asp?ship_id=romeo-class-diesel-electric-attack-submarine-soviet-union

I suspect you have again obsessed on nukes and assorted major sub-delivered missiles. Can the Romeo class, fire a missile in an upward trajectory, high enough to activate an EMP effect---or can it not?

(*pause for evil chuckle*)

Let's face it. If that little fat corksocker thinks that China has truly abandoned him, then he'd use a damned SLINGSHOT to get such an EMP device aloft. Doesn't have to have Iranian plutonium or Russian servomechanical whatchacallits.

On the upside, until Tubby's boffins up their game and extend their range, any damage will be our West Coast. They can do without electricity and the Internet for a while. Particularly the Bay area. 

About that THAAD defense....

QuoteNorth Korea has tailored its spate of ballistic missile tests to defeat the U.S.-stationed defense systems ready to protect the South and Japan from descending warheads, a report to Congress says.

The bellicose North regularly flight-tests a panoply of ballistic missiles that could, in war, be capped with miniaturized nuclear warheads and strike its two democratic neighbors and U.S. allies.

The U.S. military has matched this threat by first stationing Patriot anti-missile batteries and then announcing that the wider-range, mobile THAAD system is now in place to shoot down incoming warheads.

Pyongyang, the North's capital, has been watching.

The Congressional Research Service reported that the regime launched test missiles last year in flights precisely designed to avoid interception by rocketing them into much higher altitudes. The result: The re-entry warhead will descend at a steeper angle and faster speed, "making it potentially more difficult to intercept with a missile defense system," the CRS said.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/may/3/north-korea-missiles-can-defeat-us-defense-systems/

Quote from: quiller on May 04, 2017, 10:23:21 AM
I suspect you have again obsessed on nukes and assorted major sub-delivered missiles. Can the Romeo class, fire a missile in an upward trajectory, high enough to activate an EMP effect---or can it not?

(*pause for evil chuckle*)

Let's face it. If that little fat corksocker thinks that China has truly abandoned him, then he'd use a damned SLINGSHOT to get such an EMP device aloft. Doesn't have to have Iranian plutonium or Russian servomechanical whatchacallits.

On the upside, until Tubby's boffins up their game and extend their range, any damage will be our West Coast. They can do without electricity and the Internet for a while. Particularly the Bay area. 

Nah, it's an old attack class sub with no missile capability.
Its range could get it to the west coast, but without the ability for resupply, it would be a one way trip, and if they venture into our waters, will become target practice.
They aren't a quiet running ship either and batteries/electricity only last a short time and need to surface.
Bottom line? These are toys compared to anything we have, and easy to detect, slower than a whale.
Think seal with a mariachi band and disco ball in full light, and that's in stealth mode.

Kim Jong-Un Mans A Soviet Submarine That's Been Obsolete Since 1961



The admirals of the Soviet Union declared North Korea's prize submarine to be obsolete back in 1961, and Western experts stubbornly point out its inability to sink enemy vessels.
Every other navy in the world then gave up on the Romeo, with its noisy and easily detectable diesel engine – apart, that is, from North Korea's.Today, the country has 20 Romeo class boats, comprising almost a third of its submarine fleet.

The boats carry Yu-4 torpedoes, a Chinese-made weapon dating from the 1960s with a range of four miles.

The Los Angeles Class nuclear-powered attack submarines of the US Navy, meanwhile, carry Harpoon missiles that can sink a ship 150 miles away.

http://www.businessinsider.com/kim-jong-un-mans-a-soviet-submarine-thats-been-obsolete-since-1961-photos-2014-6

Which should we (or the neighbors) fear the most?   

An attack of some sort, EMP, dirty bomb, just a missile, on a US territory, or US ship?   
or
An attack on one of our Allies - Japan or South Korea?
Gee.. if they tried to attack the Philippines, would the US intervein or would China?  Maybe that would be the purpose, to get us fighting eachother!

No doubt, the little dog eating fat guy is considering his options, where to cause the most damage to what - if he is attacked first.

What bugs me the most about people like this, they take on a "what have I got to lose?" mentality, instead of being 'nice' they might be thinking of hurting as many people as they can before their final curtain.  In that sense, he is a bigger problem than a non-nuclear country.

Quote from: quiller on May 04, 2017, 10:23:21 AM
I suspect you have again obsessed on nukes and assorted major sub-delivered missiles. Can the Romeo class, fire a missile in an upward trajectory, high enough to activate an EMP effect---or can it not?

(*pause for evil chuckle*)

Let's face it. If that little fat corksocker thinks that China has truly abandoned him, then he'd use a damned SLINGSHOT to get such an EMP device aloft. Doesn't have to have Iranian plutonium or Russian servomechanical whatchacallits.

On the upside, until Tubby's boffins up their game and extend their range, any damage will be our West Coast. They can do without electricity and the Internet for a while. Particularly the Bay area. 

Hmm ... good thought Quiller. If we even put up a wall at the CA border and the lights go out, it will look a lot like NK. And if we let their state govt. keep going liberal, they'll even look more like NK. It will also help the US illegal immigration problem. We'd have to rescue a few of our patriot friends though.

Quote from: Solar on May 04, 2017, 05:59:49 AM
Just because they can launch a missile is no reason to overreact. Anything they launch, and I mean anything, can be taken out, which is why we stationed THAAD on the DMZ.
When I was there, our biggest concern was a strike across the border because we were told we'd have 3 minutes to react.
To this day I still cringe when I hear a civil defence siren monthly test.

But fast forward nearly 50 years and we have all kinds of deterrents as well as defensive capabilities, including the Patriot batteries up and down the Z.
http://thediplomat.com/2017/03/us-starts-deploying-thaad-anti-missile-defense-system-in-south-korea/



By the way, China hates THAAD, which is one more reason to deploy it, it puts even more pressure on the commie Chinks.

The old diesel electric subs can be a real trick to detect when running silent. They have really crap outdated subs but I remember the Falkland war when England had a hell of a time finding and sinking the Argentine Diesel Boat we sold to them! Remember that was the brits biggest fear to their navy during that conflict!
Are our anti sub defenses really that active on the left coast?
The saving part is that at this time his sub launch missiles don't seam to be working well and I don't believe he has perfected his nuke to where one could even fit on a medium range missile let alone have the guidance or firing system reliable enough to attempt it! That said we would be fools to wait until he did! 

Quote from: redbeard on May 04, 2017, 04:49:35 PM
The old diesel electric subs can be a real trick to detect when running silent. They have really crap outdated subs but I remember the Falkland war when England had a hell of a time finding and sinking the Argentine Diesel Boat we sold to them! Remember that was the brits biggest fear to their navy during that conflict!
Are our anti sub defenses really that active on the left coast?
The saving part is that at this time his sub launch missiles don't seam to be working well and I don't believe he has perfected his nuke to where one could even fit on a medium range missile let alone have the guidance or firing system reliable enough to attempt it! That said we would be fools to wait until he did!

I've also heard & read the same thing.

http://www.behindbluelines.com/2009/07/22/what-is-state-of-the-art-in-submarine-detection/

QuoteBecause of the reduction in perceived threat, the Navy pared down its ASW patrol presence – particularly in the Atlantic – and closed key bases that supported patrol squadrons, redirecting aging patrol aircraft to other, non-ASW missions. At the same time, the Navy also reduced its ASW training budget for the surface fleet with some units never participating in coordinated and realistic ASW exercises in spite of the tiered requirements set down in the Surface Force Training Manual and as required during Inter-Deployment Training Cycles (link is to a Rand report on comparative ASW training between DDG-51 destroyer crews and their British and French counterparts).

In the meantime, the world witnessed the rapid development and proliferation of ultra-quiet diesel-electric (DE) and air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarines whose hull and plant noise signatures fell below the signal-to-noise levels detectable by the Navy's passive detection systems, especially in noisy littoral areas. The Swedes and Australians in particular repeatedly embarassed the Navy in exercises. Their Gotland and Collins-class submarines, respectively, have been able to penetrate Navy battle groups undetected and even "sink" Los Angeles-class submarines assigned to protect the fold. 

a.  Diesel Electric is nothing like the WW2 German Uboats we see in the movies.
b.  They are very, very quiet and can stay down a long time, compared to the subs we think of as a chugging-along-noisy-diesel in Das Boot.
c.  By comparison to a US Nuclear sub, they are CHEAP and expendable.

http://www.naval-technology.com/features/feature121453/

QuoteAcoustic signatures have, for instance, already been cut to unprecedented low levels with the likes of the US Virginia class attack submarines, which employ a novel propulsor design, isolated deck structures and an innovative anechoic hull coating - but even so, they can still be heard.  Future generations of submarines, are gearing up to be quieter still, particularly if the direction taken by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (part of ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems) with its revolutionary Class 212A, becomes mainstream.

Powered by hydrogen fuel cells, these vessels offer non-nuclear, air-independent operation, are almost completely silent and radiate virtually no heat.  This, coupled with high-tech energy management, acoustically optimised equipment and non-magnetic construction, is claimed to make these submarines "nearly impossible to detect."

It's quite fascinating stuff, and the opportunity for the Chinese to test new stealth technologies against American detection systems... North Korea is just a Chinese pawn.  As rapidly as China is building and improving their ocean going fleet, we'd be naive to think they are not right in the middle of this... they're just being careful not to get caught.

I wonder what will the present administration do, -when- they find Chinese fingerprints all over some technology North Korea is not-suppose-to-have...  we may have already - and with any luck, Trump is leveraging it to pressure China to tighten the screws on the little fat guy.

Quote from: redbeard on May 04, 2017, 04:49:35 PM
The old diesel electric subs can be a real trick to detect when running silent. They have really crap outdated subs but I remember the Falkland war when England had a hell of a time finding and sinking the Argentine Diesel Boat we sold to them! Remember that was the brits biggest fear to their navy during that conflict!
Are our anti sub defenses really that active on the left coast?
The saving part is that at this time his sub launch missiles don't seam to be working well and I don't believe he has perfected his nuke to where one could even fit on a medium range missile let alone have the guidance or firing system reliable enough to attempt it! That said we would be fools to wait until he did!

Nah, not with the tech we use today, Hell, we can detect a fish fart with the listening equipment we have today.
It's not just on subs, we have listening devices at all depths around the world and the Eastern Pacific all up and down the coast can tell you exactly what schools of fish are passing by, to what kind of boat just went overhead.

You have to keep in mind, aside from humans listening, computers analyze each and every sound, even those above and below the ability of a man sitting at his station bored to tears.
So you may think they're silent, but our tech hears a cacophony of sounds, while man hears nothing.
Now consider an NK sub trying to sneak close to shore, we already have their acoustic fingerprint, diesel or electric, we can detect it all, miles away and long before we dispatch a sub to the area.

Quote from: Hoofer on May 05, 2017, 02:57:18 PM
I've also heard & read the same thing.

http://www.behindbluelines.com/2009/07/22/what-is-state-of-the-art-in-submarine-detection/
a.  Diesel Electric is nothing like the WW2 German Uboats we see in the movies.
b.  They are very, very quiet and can stay down a long time, compared to the subs we think of as a chugging-along-noisy-diesel in Das Boot.
c.  By comparison to a US Nuclear sub, they are CHEAP and expendable.

http://www.naval-technology.com/features/feature121453/
It's quite fascinating stuff, and the opportunity for the Chinese to test new stealth technologies against American detection systems... North Korea is just a Chinese pawn.  As rapidly as China is building and improving their ocean going fleet, we'd be naive to think they are not right in the middle of this... they're just being careful not to get caught.

I wonder what will the present administration do, -when- they find Chinese fingerprints all over some technology North Korea is not-suppose-to-have...  we may have already - and with any luck, Trump is leveraging it to pressure China to tighten the screws on the little fat guy.

I've said it before. It's very plausible that the Chinese are using NK as a bargain chip. China gets NK to act out, China comes to save the day ... in exchange for ...

I suspect the same with Russia and Syria. But I think Russia got surprised when Trump pulled the trigger.

As for evidence, I can't put it together on either case. But it is plausible - events make sense in that context. Some semblance of Occam's Razor in that regard.