Conservative Political Forum

General Category => Financial => Topic started by: Vern on February 01, 2013, 05:20:37 PM

Title: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Vern on February 01, 2013, 05:20:37 PM
Wow, who would have thought 4 short years after President Obama started, the DOW would be up almost 6000 points. well I think safe to say "nobody at this board".

Was it only 4 years ago, the screams and chants from the right were

"THE MARKET IS GOING TO ZERO"
"WE WILL HAVE HYPER INFLATION"
"THE DOLLAR WILL COLLAPSE"
"SOCIALISM SOCIALISM SOCIALISM"

here's one of the supposed leading 'financial' newspapers. 

"
Obama's Radicalism Is Killing the Dow
"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html)

When they wrote that the DOW was about 6500.  Thats down from inauguration day of about 8200.  How could a supposed 'financial' paper miss the first 6000 point drop of that massive market crash? 
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 06:27:07 PM
Quote from: Vern on February 01, 2013, 05:20:37 PM
Wow, who would have thought 4 short years after President Obama started, the DOW would be up almost 6000 points. well I think safe to say "nobody at this board".

Was it only 4 years ago, the screams and chants from the right were

"THE MARKET IS GOING TO ZERO"
"WE WILL HAVE HYPER INFLATION"
"THE DOLLAR WILL COLLAPSE"
"SOCIALISM SOCIALISM SOCIALISM"

here's one of the supposed leading 'financial' newspapers. 

"
Obama's Radicalism Is Killing the Dow
"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html)

When they wrote that the DOW was about 6500.  Thats down from inauguration day of about 8200.  How could a supposed 'financial' paper miss the first 6000 point drop of that massive market crash?

Well, you weren't talking to me.

After TARP, TALC, QE 1,2,3 and Qe-ternity, not to mention the monetization going on world wide right now, I say, "Dow to the Moon and Back!

How high this puppy goes- nobody knows!

If you understand how stock prices link in with corporate profits, and if you get the link between monetary debasement and corporate profitability ( as profits in foriegn currency magically "grow" when stated in weaker dollar terms) then one needs no great time to ponder the direction the market is heading in.

It is going up, and it has nowhere else to go, as central banks flood the banks with credit.

The credit is going into treasuries and then being traded in repurchase agreements, for fungible money, which is then finding its way into the market, driving up valuations.

The entire banking system is a hedge fund, good lord knows they are not loaning money.

And between the banks, the institutional traders, and Skynet (high frequency trading) the machines have literally taken over. So the retail investor is literally a dupe who wandered in to the wrong game of 3 card monty.

The stock market is completely disconnected from the real economy.

Just my two cents.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:04:15 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 06:27:07 PM
Well, you weren't talking to me.

After TARP, TALC, QE 1,2,3 and Qe-ternity, not to mention the monetization going on world wide right now, I say, "Dow to the Moon and Back!

How high this puppy goes- nobody knows!

If you understand how stock prices link in with corporate profits, and if you get the link between monetary debasement and corporate profitability ( as profits in foriegn currency magically "grow" when stated in weaker dollar terms) then one needs no great time to ponder the direction the market is heading in.

It is going up, and it has nowhere else to go, as central banks flood the banks with credit.

The credit is going into treasuries and then being traded in repurchase agreements, for fungible money, which is then finding its way into the market, driving up valuations.

The entire banking system is a hedge fund, good lord knows they are not loaning money.

And between the banks, the institutional traders, and Skynet (high frequency trading) the machines have literally taken over. So the retail investor is literally a dupe who wandered in to the wrong game of 3 card monty.

The stock market is completely disconnected from the real economy.

Just my two cents.

The stock market is completely disconnected from reality; period.

It shouldn't even exist.

For an administration to run a campaign on busting up Wall St corruption, and then point to Wall St as a sure sign of economic recovery, is schizophrenic BS mumbo jumbo.
Title: toward, thanks for an intelligent response. I like a challenge
Post by: Vern on February 01, 2013, 07:09:10 PM
toward, I have no doubt you understood what was going on. I understood it too.  But what about ther rest of the right?  I remember the ranting and raving from the right that the "world is ending".   Do you think the rest of the right thought  we'd be at 14000?

and what about their sources of information screaming to them the world was ending.  whats your secret to knowing the "conservative entertainment complex" was lying?
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 07:09:57 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:04:15 PM
The stock market is completely disconnected from reality; period.

It shouldn't even exist.

For an administration to run a campaign on busting up Wall St corruption, and then point to Wall St as a sure sign of economic recovery, is schizophrenic BS mumbo jumbo.

Definitely.

But I don't say it shouldn't exist..
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:10:51 PM
Wall St and Washington work in concert to manipulate the valuation of virtually everything in our lives.

None of it is real. Sucks to be in the 99%. We just get to finance the lies.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:13:46 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 07:09:57 PM
Definitely.

But I don't say it shouldn't exist..

It has moved far beyond being a means for companies to borrow the needed capital for growth.

Huge amounts of money are shifted around to create artificial perceptions of reality.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 01, 2013, 07:18:55 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 06:27:07 PM
Well, you weren't talking to me.

After TARP, TALC, QE 1,2,3 and Qe-ternity, not to mention the monetization going on world wide right now, I say, "Dow to the Moon and Back!

How high this puppy goes- nobody knows!

If you understand how stock prices link in with corporate profits, and if you get the link between monetary debasement and corporate profitability ( as profits in foriegn currency magically "grow" when stated in weaker dollar terms) then one needs no great time to ponder the direction the market is heading in.

It is going up, and it has nowhere else to go, as central banks flood the banks with credit.

The credit is going into treasuries and then being traded in repurchase agreements, for fungible money, which is then finding its way into the market, driving up valuations.

The entire banking system is a hedge fund, good lord knows they are not loaning money.

And between the banks, the institutional traders, and Skynet (high frequency trading) the machines have literally taken over. So the retail investor is literally a dupe who wandered in to the wrong game of 3 card monty.

The stock market is completely disconnected from the real economy.

Just my two cents.
Exactly! It's a disconnection from reality, the stock Mkt is no longer an indicator of the health/wealth of the country, merely an image of the manipulation by the Fed.
And I love the Q-Etrnity line.  :laugh:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:26:01 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 01, 2013, 07:18:55 PM
Exactly! It's a disconnection from reality, the stock Mkt is no longer an indicator of the health/wealth of the country, merely an image of the manipulation by the Fed.
And I love the Q-Etrnity line.  :laugh:

Yep. I think I mentioned it earlier: The big banks are getting printed or borrowed money from Washington, (at almost zero interest), and rather than loaning it out, they are dumping it into Wall St.

What a freaking scam!!!! :cursing:

We call this recovery. :confused:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 01, 2013, 07:33:36 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:26:01 PM
Yep. I think I mentioned it earlier: The big banks are getting printed or borrowed money from Washington, (at almost zero interest), and rather than loaning it out, they are dumping it into Wall St.

What a freaking scam!!!! :cursing:

And the MSM calls this recovery. :confused:
FIFY.
I don't think anyone with an IQ above room temp thinks it is.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:38:00 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 01, 2013, 07:33:36 PM
FIFY.
I don't think anyone with an IQ above room temp thinks it is.

Vern has brought up some valid points about Bush. All I know, is that I'm tired of getting screwed. Obama has put it in overdrive. :blink:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 01, 2013, 07:53:21 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:38:00 PM
Vern has brought up some valid points about Bush. All I know, is that I'm tired of getting screwed. Obama has put it in overdrive. :blink:
All he's done is reinforce what we already knew, Bush was no conservative and Husein is a Socialist.
In addition, both party's suck, we so badly need Tea party folk in all three Houses, we change and we needed it decades ago.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 08:07:46 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 01, 2013, 07:53:21 PM
All he's done is reinforce what we already knew, Bush was no conservative and Husein is a Socialist.
In addition, both party's suck, we so badly need Tea party folk in all three Houses, we change and we needed it decades ago.

Any administration that points to the damned stock market as proof of success, is full of shit and on the ropes.

Another distraction. :sad:

It's really getting old.

Obama saying that Hillary will go down in history as one of the best secretaries of state, as embassies are bombed and Americans are murdered.

I'm really wondering if our country will wake up.
Title: Re: toward, thanks for an intelligent response. I like a challenge
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 08:08:25 PM
Quote from: Vern on February 01, 2013, 07:09:10 PM
toward, I have no doubt you understood what was going on. I understood it too.  But what about ther rest of the right?  I remember the ranting and raving from the right that the "world is ending".   Do you think the rest of the right thought  we'd be at 14000?

I really couldn't say what those on the right think about it.

I wasn't around here all that much until rather recently.

But from the libertarian/zerohedge community that I frequent, no one doubted a nominal run up in the stock market.

That is what QE is all about.

I do seem to remember conservatives talking about the disconnect between the stock market and the real economy.

And to their credit, that is a sound point.
Quote

and what about their sources of information screaming to them the world was ending.  whats your secret to knowing the "conservative entertainment complex" was lying?


What do you mean by the world is ending? A drop in the stock market?

And what time period are we talking?

Because that sort of thinking was accurate 08-09.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 08:09:37 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:13:46 PM
It has moved far beyond being a means for companies to borrow the needed capital for growth.

Huge amounts of money are shifted around to create artificial perceptions of reality.

No doubt.

So we disapprove of the particular institutional design of the stock market.

But a stock market in general is a necessary thing.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 08:12:29 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 01, 2013, 07:18:55 PM
Exactly! It's a disconnection from reality, the stock Mkt is no longer an indicator of the health/wealth of the country, merely an image of the manipulation by the Fed.
And I love the Q-Etrnity line.  :laugh:

Thanks.

And I agree.

The share of the economy based in "financialization" has grown to ungodly bounds.

The switch to a fiat currency from a commodity currency has put into motion a shift in the real economy away from a focus on producing real things, in a sustainable fashion, to an economy built on jumping from one credit bubble to the next.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 08:18:00 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 08:12:29 PM
Thanks.

And I agree.

The share of the economy based in "financialization" has grown to ungodly bounds.

The switch to a fiat currency from a commodity currency has put into motion a shift in the real economy away from a focus on producing real things, in a sustainable fashion, to an economy built on jumping from one credit bubble to the next.

And the bubbles emerge from the asses of unicorns.
Title: he's definitely on the list
Post by: Vern on February 01, 2013, 08:20:44 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 07:04:15 PM
For an administration to run a campaign on busting up Wall St corruption, and then point to Wall St as a sure sign of economic recovery, is schizophrenic BS mumbo jumbo.


oh kram, another false assertion to justify a false narrative? why would you equate "busting up Wall St corruption" with being anti Wall Street?  can you put it into words? or is it just because we all know that President Obama is an anti American kenyan terrorist nazi socialist muslim so of course he's upset that the DOW is at 14000 and the world didnt end?

anyhoo, my point is (and it was clear not vague) that in 2009, the right screamed, ranted and raved (and screamed some more) that the world was ending and yet the DOW hit 14000 (and the world didnt end)  so can we put you in the list of people  that didnt think the DOW would hit 14000?
Title: Re: he's definitely on the list
Post by: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 08:30:01 PM
Quote from: Vern on February 01, 2013, 08:20:44 PM

oh kram, another false assertion to justify a false narrative? why would you equate "busting up Wall St corruption" with being anti Wall Street?  can you put it into words? or is it just because we all know that President Obama is an anti American kenyan terrorist nazi socialist muslim so of course he's upset that the DOW is at 14000 and the world didnt end?

anyhoo, my point is (and it was clear not vague) that in 2009, the right screamed, ranted and raved (and screamed some more) that the world was ending and yet the DOW hit 14000 (and the world didnt end)  so can we put you in the list of people  that didnt think the DOW would hit 14000?

Put me on the list if you want. The markets are something that I pay no attention to...............unless you insist.

How many bad guys has the Obama administration prosecuted?
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 09:14:42 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 01, 2013, 08:18:00 PM
And the bubbles emerge from the asses of unicorns.

Unicorns made of 1's and 0's!
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 04:48:25 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 01, 2013, 09:14:42 PM
Unicorns made of 1's and 0's!

A sure sign of economic recovery!!!!!

Thank You Mr Obama. The future is looking awesome!!!!!! :thumbup:

http://www.newsadvance.com/work_it_lynchburg/news/article_3b9073a6-6ac6-11e2-8085-0019bb30f31a.html (http://www.newsadvance.com/work_it_lynchburg/news/article_3b9073a6-6ac6-11e2-8085-0019bb30f31a.html)
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 04:58:16 AM
Quote from: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 04:48:25 AM
A sure sign of economic recovery!!!!!

Thank You Mr Obama. The future is looking awesome!!!!!! :thumbup:

http://www.newsadvance.com/work_it_lynchburg/news/article_3b9073a6-6ac6-11e2-8085-0019bb30f31a.html (http://www.newsadvance.com/work_it_lynchburg/news/article_3b9073a6-6ac6-11e2-8085-0019bb30f31a.html)
It shows that the average guy is looking for somewhere to invest, anywhere but the stock mkt propper.
Amazon could be in trouble if they don't do something, overvalued stock can kill a business.
Can you say bubble?
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 05:10:25 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 02, 2013, 04:58:16 AM
It shows that the average guy is looking for somewhere to invest, anywhere but the stock mkt propper.
Amazon could be in trouble if they don't do something, overvalued stock can kill a business.
Can you say bubble?

I'm no economist, but as far as I can tell, the rise in the markets is due mostly to the fact that it's about the only place left for people that still have money, to put it.

Sometimes I'm glad I don't have any. It saves me a lot of stress. :wink:
Title: I think its safe to assume Dan was fired
Post by: Vern on February 02, 2013, 05:53:12 AM
mmmm, I'm not sure I'm buying the comments about the DOW being 'disconnected' from the economy.   It seems all rather too convenient.  And you guys all agreeing with each other isn't what I would call "making a strong case".  I posted this in another thread but it kinda shows a connection. At least a connection when it pulled the economy down.

"Lehman's collapse was a seminal event that greatly intensified the 2008 crisis and contributed to the erosion of close to $10 trillion in market capitalization from global equity markets in October 2008, the biggest monthly decline on record at the time"

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/lehman-brothers-collapse.asp#axzz1Yy6SIL3c (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/lehman-brothers-collapse.asp#axzz1Yy6SIL3c)

this is a few years old but it pretty much sums up my opinion

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_16/b4174028669540.htm (http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_16/b4174028669540.htm)

"
We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."
"

My 401k votes in favor of the President. 
Title: Re: I think its safe to assume Dan was fired
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 06:01:02 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 02, 2013, 05:53:12 AM
mmmm, I'm not sure I'm buying the comments about the DOW being 'disconnected' from the economy.   It seems all rather too convenient.  And you guys all agreeing with each other isn't what I would call "making a strong case".  I posted this in another thread but it kinda shows a connection. At least a connection when it pulled the economy down.

"Lehman's collapse was a seminal event that greatly intensified the 2008 crisis and contributed to the erosion of close to $10 trillion in market capitalization from global equity markets in October 2008, the biggest monthly decline on record at the time"

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/lehman-brothers-collapse.asp#axzz1Yy6SIL3c (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/lehman-brothers-collapse.asp#axzz1Yy6SIL3c)

this is a few years old but it pretty much sums up my opinion

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_16/b4174028669540.htm (http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_16/b4174028669540.htm)

"
We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."
"

My 401k votes in favor of the President.

You know what they say about opinions...............

Businessweek seems to be quite in love with Obama. Nothing but good news.

http://search.flashpeak.com/en/search.php?cof=FORID%3A10&ie=UTF-8&sa=Search&cx=!005235937639662612447%3Ad6zlnt0cblq&sbSource=&customtag=sbtgCmpSearch2&q=businessweek+obama+economy+failing (http://search.flashpeak.com/en/search.php?cof=FORID%3A10&ie=UTF-8&sa=Search&cx=!005235937639662612447%3Ad6zlnt0cblq&sbSource=&customtag=sbtgCmpSearch2&q=businessweek+obama+economy+failing)
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Vern on February 02, 2013, 06:15:54 AM
kram, you missed the point. I'm not posting "hey look, business week said good things", I posted a quote from a commodies trader who clearly articulated my point that if Obama was republican, I dont think we'd be hearing about how the DOW isnt connected to the economy. We be hearing a "ever-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President"

Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 06:25:24 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 02, 2013, 06:15:54 AM
kram, you missed the point. I'm not posting "hey look, business week said good things", I posted a quote from a commodies trader who clearly articulated my point that if Obama was republican, I dont think we'd be hearing about how the DOW isnt connected to the economy. We be hearing a "ever-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President"
If Husein were a Pub, he wouldn't have been elected.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 06:49:08 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 02, 2013, 06:15:54 AM
kram, you missed the point. I'm not posting "hey look, business week said good things", I posted a quote from a commodies trader who clearly articulated my point that if Obama was republican, I dont think we'd be hearing about how the DOW isnt connected to the economy. We be hearing a "ever-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President"

It sure does seem to make a big difference in Newsweek's outlook; depending on who's in the white house.

http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2005-03-13/bushs-worrisome-weak-dollar-policy (http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2005-03-13/bushs-worrisome-weak-dollar-policy)

They are freaking out about 2 billion a day in borrowing.

Today it's 5 billion a day, but it doesn't matter.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/12-scary-debt-facts-for-2012.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/12-scary-debt-facts-for-2012.html)
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Vern on February 02, 2013, 07:00:43 AM
kram, I dont think you understand what an editorial is.  and you attempting to prove that "business week " is liberal has zero to do with my point.  My point is and will continue to be

If Obama was republican, the DOW would the source of never ending drumbeat of stories that prove his policies work.

Since he's not, the DOW is magically not connected to the economy.   I guess you find it easy to deflect about business week than discuss my point.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 07:15:48 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 02, 2013, 07:00:43 AM
kram, I dont think you understand what an editorial is.  and you attempting to prove that "business week " is liberal has zero to do with my point.  My point is and will continue to be

If Obama was republican, the DOW would the source of never ending drumbeat of stories that prove his policies work.

Since he's not, the DOW is magically not connected to the economy.   I guess you find it easy to deflect about business week than discuss my point.

It's always been like that, and it's always been BS.

Doesn't matter who's in office.
Title: Re: I think its safe to assume Dan was fired
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 07:33:01 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 02, 2013, 05:53:12 AM
mmmm, I'm not sure I'm buying the comments about the DOW being 'disconnected' from the economy.   It seems all rather too convenient.  And you guys all agreeing with each other isn't what I would call "making a strong case".  I posted this in another thread but it kinda shows a connection. At least a connection when it pulled the economy down.

Would you like to make the strong case?

(I'll do it anway!)
Quote

"Lehman's collapse was a seminal event that greatly intensified the 2008 crisis and contributed to the erosion of close to $10 trillion in market capitalization from global equity markets in October 2008, the biggest monthly decline on record at the time"

And the economy and stock market were pretty in synch, then.

The world has changed since then, in very ugly ways.

In short, ZIRP and QE have caused a disconnection from reality.

Quote
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/lehman-brothers-collapse.asp#axzz1Yy6SIL3c (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/lehman-brothers-collapse.asp#axzz1Yy6SIL3c)

this is a few years old but it pretty much sums up my opinion

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_16/b4174028669540.htm (http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_16/b4174028669540.htm)

"
We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."
"

My 401k votes in favor of the President.

I thought you said you understood the situation?

If you understand what QE does to stock prices, through the magic of monetary debasement, then a nominal gain in your 401k or the stock market, is rather meaningless.

If I told you that you grew by six inches, but kept secret the fact that no inch on the ruler was the same length as another, the measurement would deceive you.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 08:05:04 AM
How to know the stock market is disconnected from reality?

First, I will show some charts related to monetary expansion, interest rates and money velocity.

(https://conservativepoliticalforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fresearch.stlouisfed.org%2Ffred2%2Fdata%2FAMBNS_Max_630_378.png&hash=6c00b03e7d6172499b76f2f3ddc8b3ee184db4bb)

(https://conservativepoliticalforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F3%2F31%2FFederal_Funds_Rate_1954_thru_2009_effective.svg%2F640px-Federal_Funds_Rate_1954_thru_2009_effective.svg.png&hash=e8dec265b775bbda03bba4f746daf243e62e4abf)

(https://conservativepoliticalforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fresearch.stlouisfed.org%2Ffred2%2Fdata%2FM2V_Max_630_378.png&hash=bb1e5f3de64a05ee9610b1ebcc0d8162dcf3e6e3)

So we see the form of money expansion- a surge in base money and a near 0 Fed Funds Rate.

The plunge in money velocity is the best sign of a stagnating or contracting economy. When money velocity is low, money changes hands slowly, meaning that fewer exchanges are occurring. More exchanges means a faster velocity.

Today money velocity is at Great Depression levels.

Now for some analysis of real economic activity.

(https://conservativepoliticalforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2Fc%2Fc2%2FBaltic_Dry_Index.png%2F800px-Baltic_Dry_Index.png&hash=048cdd1a8b06c0df425020dfc48b9983742dd179)

(https://conservativepoliticalforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.streettalklive.com%2Fimages%2Fstories%2F1dailyxchange%2FGDP-FinalSales-112912.PNG&hash=562c57f92833907405797b4695880433ec3957ca)

(https://conservativepoliticalforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2Fuser5%2Fimageroot%2F2012%2F12%2FGDP%2520vs%2520FedEx_0.jpg&hash=182e95fa54caff5a9e2613c5e092a6899cd235d8)

The Baltic Dry is an index of prices for moving goods around the world. When it is low it means the demand for this service is diminished.

The next chart shows weak final sales, year over year.

And the 3rd chart shows the relationship between year over year change in Fed ex shipments vs real GDP. Shipments have contracted while GDP keeps growing.

Now there are good reasons for that, but none of them have to do with an expanding economy.

So now for some explanation..

The stock market is a measure of corporate profitability. Monetary debasement and credit expansion artificially boost the appearance of profitability- and the stock market soars on the deception.

Here is how it works:

Quote50%-60%+ of global corporate earnings and profits are non-U.S., i.e. booked overseas in a currency other than the U.S. dollar (USD). As the dollar weakened, global corporate profits skyrocketed as earnings in euros, yen, etc. rose when stated in dollars.

In other words, overseas profits expand as if by magic when stated in dollars.

When the euro and the dollar were 1-to-1 back in the early 2000s, then 100 euros of profit converted to $100 when stated in dollars. When the euro rose to $1.60, then the same 100 euros of profit earned by the U.S. corporation in Europe converted to a stupendous $160 in profit when stated in dollars.

This explains why the Fed has been so keen to trash the dollar: it magically increases corporate profits and thus drives stocks higher. The mainstream financial media's explanation for the weak-dollar policy is that the Fed is anxious to increase exports, but this is a sideshow; exports make up less than 9% of the U.S. GDP. The real action is in corporate profits, which thanks to the weak dollar are near all-time highs of $2 trillion, about 14% of the nation's entire GDP.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-09/guest-post-rising-us-dollar-will-be-corporate-earningsmarket-negative (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-09/guest-post-rising-us-dollar-will-be-corporate-earningsmarket-negative)

So we have a soaring stock market, while labor participation rates plummet, consumer confidence falls, money velocity is in the toilet, cap ex and durable goods orders are flat...

So I would argue that the stock market is indeed disconnected from reality.

And the relationship between the rise in the stock market and those inflated corporate profits, is where the story lies.
Title: Re: I think its safe to assume Dan was fired
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 08:07:38 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 07:33:01 AM
Would you like to make the strong case?

(I'll do it anway!)
And the economy and stock market were pretty in synch, then.

The world has changed since then, in very ugly ways.

In short, ZIRP and QE have caused a disconnection from reality.

I thought you said you understood the situation?

If you understand what QE does to stock prices, through the magic of monetary debasement, then a nominal gain in your 401k or the stock market, is rather meaningless.

If I told you that you grew by six inches, but kept secret the fact that no inch on the ruler was the same length as another, the measurement would deceive you.

Anybody that looks at the numbers on their 401k to gauge the performance of the president, is a hopelessly lost case. :sad:

http://www.nationalseniorscouncil.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=89%3Aobama-begins-push-for-new-national-retirement-system&catid=34%3Asocial-security&Itemid=62 (http://www.nationalseniorscouncil.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=89%3Aobama-begins-push-for-new-national-retirement-system&catid=34%3Asocial-security&Itemid=62)

I hope Vern enjoys it while he can. The government is running out of funding sources.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 08:13:58 AM
Well done TL, concise and on point. :thumbup:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 08:17:57 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 02, 2013, 08:13:58 AM
Well done TL, concise and on point. :thumbup:
Thanks, Solar.

I know on these issues there is much common ground here.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 08:29:26 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 02, 2013, 07:00:43 AM
kram, I dont think you understand what an editorial is.  and you attempting to prove that "business week " is liberal has zero to do with my point.  My point is and will continue to be

If Obama was republican, the DOW would the source of never ending drumbeat of stories that prove his policies work.

Since he's not, the DOW is magically not connected to the economy.   I guess you find it easy to deflect about business week than discuss my point.

You are right about the politics of it.

If Obama were a Republican, many rank and file GOP would be trumpeting the rise in the stock market as a clear vindication of the President's plan.

And they would be wrong for the reasons I have argued.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 08:34:03 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 08:17:57 AM
Thanks, Solar.

I know on these issues there is much common ground here.
Could it be our disdain of both party's? :laugh:
I agree, we both understand the problem, but pursue differing paths when dealing with it.
I used to be a Pub years ago, even saw it as the only path to follow, but when Nixon broke our link with gold, I pretty much severed my belief in an ideal party.
Though he did some good things, like trying to bring China into the 20 century, in hindsight, did more damage to our economy in the long run.

I digress, I don't know if we can ever extract ourselves from the fiat dollar, outside of revolution or or a total collapse of the dollar, or even worse both outcomes combined, but we cannot continue down the path we are on, something is going to give, and no matter what happens, it's going to be ugly.

I give it roughly 10 years if drastic changes aren't implemented, and socialism is not the answer.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 08:34:34 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 08:29:26 AM
You are right about the politics of it.

If Obama were a Republican, many rank and file GOP would be trumpeting the rise in the stock market as a clear vindication of the President's plan.

And they would be wrong for the reasons I have argued.

No argument here. Of course they would.

And whenever they start using the market as a gauge of success.............it's time to start digging deeper. :scared:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 09:04:01 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 02, 2013, 08:34:03 AM
Could it be our disdain of both party's? :laugh:
I agree, we both understand the problem, but pursue differing paths when dealing with it.
I used to be a Pub years ago, even saw it as the only path to follow, but when Nixon broke our link with gold, I pretty much severed my belief in an ideal party.
Though he did some good things, like trying to bring China into the 20 century, in hindsight, did more damage to our economy in the long run.

I digress, I don't know if we can ever extract ourselves from the fiat dollar, outside of revolution or or a total collapse of the dollar, or even worse both outcomes combined, but we cannot continue down the path we are on, something is going to give, and no matter what happens, it's going to be ugly.

I give it roughly 10 years if drastic changes aren't implemented, and socialism is not the answer.
I agree with basically everything you have said here.

But yes, we do see the path forward in radically different ways.

Have you read any Doug Casey?

Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 09:05:33 AM
Quote from: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 08:34:34 AM
No argument here. Of course they would.

And whenever they start using the market as a gauge of success.............it's time to start digging deeper. :scared:

Yep, and doing that is something that is difficult to do without the right tools.

I would be lost without zerohedge.com
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 09:11:39 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 09:05:33 AM
Yep, and doing that is something that is difficult to do without the right tools.

I would be lost without zerohedge.com

That's an excellent site. Even I can understand it. :thumbup:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 09:24:09 AM
Quote from: kramarat on February 02, 2013, 09:11:39 AM
That's an excellent site. Even I can understand it. :thumbup:

I like it.

Though, I admit, some of their commentary is a couple notches above my understanding.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 10:15:24 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 09:04:01 AM
I agree with basically everything you have said here.

But yes, we do see the path forward in radically different ways.

Have you read any Doug Casey?
Nope, believe it or not, I've probably only completed 3 books in my life, most of my reading is pure research, I like to form my own views without outward influence.
Research alone gives me far more information than any single book can, it's an ADHD thing, books move to slowly, I consume tons of research material.
Yes, I'm boring that way. :biggrin:

Those three books; Boxcar children in 1964, a scifi novel, and...., umm Ok, maybe only two that I can remember. :blush:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 10:20:12 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 02, 2013, 10:15:24 AM
Nope, believe it or not, I've probably only completed 3 books in my life, most of my reading is pure research, I like to form my own views without outward influence.
Research alone gives me far more information than any single book can, it's an ADHD thing, books move to slowly, I consume tons of research material.
Yes, I'm boring that way. :biggrin:

Those three books; Boxcar children in 1964, a scifi novel, and...., umm Ok, maybe only two that I can remember. :blush:

That is interesting..

I usually have two books going at once, and I like to do internet research as well..

Though, I can't say that my thoughts would be what they are without all of the reading. I doubt I would know anything about economics, ethics or history.

It would be such a shame to only know about these topics what was spoon fed to us in public school.

Doug Casey has online articles. ZeroHedge features him occasionally.

He is a billionaire investor who lives abroad.

Not to mention a fervent supporter of liberty, economic freedom, and yes, anarchism.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 10:54:01 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 10:20:12 AM
That is interesting..

I usually have two books going at once, and I like to do internet research as well..

Though, I can't say that my thoughts would be what they are without all of the reading. I doubt I would know anything about economics, ethics or history.

It would be such a shame to only know about these topics what was spoon fed to us in public school.

Doug Casey has online articles. ZeroHedge features him occasionally.

He is a billionaire investor who lives abroad.

Not to mention a fervent supporter of liberty, economic freedom, and yes, anarchism.
Which is why I stick solely to facts, raw facts have no opinion to sway one with, like a hard science.
Many of today's ideas were formed by great communicators of the past, it is these opinions I try and avoid, so as to get a clearer picture of how we arrived at our current place.
Say for example, had Hitler never arrived on the scene, where would we be today?

I tend to stick to history as much as possible and current on science, while taking in the chess game of politics, a very complicated game, one the left plays several moves ahead of the right and is always dictating the outcome, sometimes to their own peril.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 11:56:18 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 02, 2013, 10:54:01 AM
Which is why I stick solely to facts, raw facts have no opinion to sway one with, like a hard science.

Is it possible to stick solely to facts?

Or does the nature of fact itself involve a theory?
Quote

Many of today's ideas were formed by great communicators of the past, it is these opinions I try and avoid, so as to get a clearer picture of how we arrived at our current place.

I dont understand what you mean.

How does avoiding ideas and opinions give you a clear picture?

Quote
Say for example, had Hitler never arrived on the scene, where would we be today?

I tend to stick to history as much as possible and current on science, while taking in the chess game of politics, a very complicated game, one the left plays several moves ahead of the right and is always dictating the outcome, sometimes to their own peril.

I am really confused by your post here.

How do you avoid reading books, but stick to history and fact?

I dont get it..
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 05:43:54 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 11:56:18 AM
Is it possible to stick solely to facts?

Or does the nature of fact itself involve a theory?
I dont understand what you mean.

How does avoiding ideas and opinions give you a clear picture?

I am really confused by your post here.

How do you avoid reading books, but stick to history and fact?

I dont get it..
It's a matter of understanding how and why we got to where we are, then reading backwards.
Why did the Founders do what they did, then examine the time and place in a historical manner, wars, politics,etc.
Instead of simply picking up a so called history book written by one author and a few researchers thinking in kind.

It's like reading one article on a subject and forming  an opinion, many of the books on a given subject tend to have ingrained, (no matter how slight), the authors opinion.

I prefer to read the actual accounts and form my own opinion.
It works for me, you should try it, it's akin to turning off the sound on TV and just watching the video.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 09:23:35 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 02, 2013, 05:43:54 PM
It's a matter of understanding how and why we got to where we are, then reading backwards.

And all of that can be done without resorting to a theory of what caused what?

Where does such knowledge come from?

Quote


Why did the Founders do what they did, then examine the time and place in a historical manner, wars, politics,etc.

And how much of that is objective information?

How much theory laden?
Quote

Instead of simply picking up a so called history book written by one author and a few researchers thinking in kind.

So where do you get your knowledge?

Quote

It's like reading one article on a subject and forming  an opinion, many of the books on a given subject tend to have ingrained, (no matter how slight), the authors opinion.

But not the articles?

No ingrained bias there?

And is an opinion formed from a single article really very valuable?

Quote

I prefer to read the actual accounts and form my own opinion.
It works for me, you should try it, it's akin to turning off the sound on TV and just watching the video.

What are actual accounts?

Where do they come from- if not from the hand, mind or mouth of another human?

I am sorry Soral, but I don't have the foggiest idea of what it is you are talking about.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 02, 2013, 09:56:13 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 02, 2013, 09:23:35 PM
And all of that can be done without resorting to a theory of what caused what?

Where does such knowledge come from?

And how much of that is objective information?

How much theory laden?
So where do you get your knowledge?

But not the articles?

No ingrained bias there?

And is an opinion formed from a single article really very valuable?

What are actual accounts?

Where do they come from- if not from the hand, mind or mouth of another human?

I am sorry Soral, but I don't have the foggiest idea of what it is you are talking about.
Let me see if I can give an example.
Take Nam, now read Cronkite's version of the war, as opposed to those that actually served.

Now do you get it?
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Phillip on February 03, 2013, 12:03:36 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 01, 2013, 05:20:37 PM
Wow, who would have thought 4 short years after President Obama started, the DOW would be up almost 6000 points. well I think safe to say "nobody at this board".

Was it only 4 years ago, the screams and chants from the right were

"THE MARKET IS GOING TO ZERO"
"WE WILL HAVE HYPER INFLATION"
"THE DOLLAR WILL COLLAPSE"
"SOCIALISM SOCIALISM SOCIALISM"

here's one of the supposed leading 'financial' newspapers. 

"
Obama's Radicalism Is Killing the Dow
"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html)

When they wrote that the DOW was about 6500.  Thats down from inauguration day of about 8200.  How could a supposed 'financial' paper miss the first 6000 point drop of that massive market crash?


Back on MySpace, during his first year, we used to get day by day reportings of how much the DOW/NASDAQ/S&P were plummeting under Obama and how Obama was bad for the markets. Now that it has gone up [and, in some respects, exceeded what Bush even did], it doesn't matter anymore.

BTW, just sold off my Melco and Groupon. As the meme goes, thanks Obama.  :thumbup:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 03, 2013, 08:28:45 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 02, 2013, 09:56:13 PM
Let me see if I can give an example.
Take Nam, now read Cronkite's version of the war, as opposed to those that actually served.

Now do you get it?

No, I really dont.

I would probably ignore Cronkite's version, as he is part of the establishment.

Now, those who actually served have great insight into the logistics of the battle, or so on, but they are limited in what they can say about geo-political sea changes, policy goals, the role of special interests in pushing for war, such as banks or weapons manufacturers... etc

But all that aside, the recounts of soldiers, politicians, historians and the rest can never be purely objective fact.

For in order to decide which aspects of reality are relevant to report one must have a theory of what causes what, if only to separate relevant facts from the irrelevant.

That requires theory.

And everyone does it, from the solider, to the commander, to the historian.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 03, 2013, 09:48:33 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 03, 2013, 08:28:45 AM
No, I really dont.

I would probably ignore Cronkite's version, as he is part of the establishment.

Now, those who actually served have great insight into the logistics of the battle, or so on, but they are limited in what they can say about geo-political sea changes, policy goals, the role of special interests in pushing for war, such as banks or weapons manufacturers... etc

But all that aside, the recounts of soldiers, politicians, historians and the rest can never be purely objective fact.

For in order to decide which aspects of reality are relevant to report one must have a theory of what causes what, if only to separate relevant facts from the irrelevant.

That requires theory.

And everyone does it, from the solider, to the commander, to the historian.
A puzzle only has pieces, one must put all the pieces in place to complete the entire picture, theory is a not a piece, it is merely a guess at the full picture, the facts are what complete the puzzle.

One can read all the theories, and come to their own conclusion, but still, it's merely a theory.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 03, 2013, 10:13:56 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 03, 2013, 09:48:33 AM
A puzzle only has pieces, one must put all the pieces in place to complete the entire picture, theory is a not a piece, it is merely a guess at the full picture, the facts are what complete the puzzle.

One can read all the theories, and come to their own conclusion, but still, it's merely a theory.

All that is true.

And none of it addresses the points in the post you responded to.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 03, 2013, 10:32:13 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 03, 2013, 08:28:45 AM
No, I really dont.

I would probably ignore Cronkite's version, as he is part of the establishment.

Now, those who actually served have great insight into the logistics of the battle, or so on, but they are limited in what they can say about geo-political sea changes, policy goals, the role of special interests in pushing for war, such as banks or weapons manufacturers... etc

But all that aside, the recounts of soldiers, politicians, historians and the rest can never be purely objective fact.

For in order to decide which aspects of reality are relevant to report one must have a theory of what causes what, if only to separate relevant facts from the irrelevant.

That requires theory.

And everyone does it, from the solider, to the commander, to the historian.

I've posited that there are as many realities as there are people....................
Which makes it pretty difficult to pin down.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 03, 2013, 11:34:45 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 03, 2013, 10:13:56 AM
All that is true.

And none of it addresses the points in the post you responded to.
I'm a self educated man, the majority of my knowledge base is from tons of research and experience.
Yes, I've read crib notes of many books, only to lead me to pursue the actual events by those that were there, which is one reason I never fall for conspiracy theory, I want the facts, not a bunch of wild theories from a myriad of so called experts.

I do not come to final conclusions based on other opinions, it really is that simple.

This also explains why you theorize your style of "not Govt" would work in today's climate, and why I say it wouldn't, you deal in theory, I deal in fact.

Nothing wrong with the way you come to conclusions, it's just not the way I do it.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 03, 2013, 12:32:19 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 03, 2013, 11:34:45 AM
I'm a self educated man, the majority of my knowledge base is from tons of research and experience.
Yes, I've read crib notes of many books, only to lead me to pursue the actual events by those that were there, which is one reason I never fall for conspiracy theory, I want the facts, not a bunch of wild theories from a myriad of so called experts.

I do not come to final conclusions based on other opinions, it really is that simple.

This also explains why you theorize your style of "not Govt" would work in today's climate, and why I say it wouldn't, you deal in theory, I deal in fact.

Nothing wrong with the way you come to conclusions, it's just not the way I do it.

No govt is impossible.

Two's company, three's a crowd, comes to mind.

Whether TL wants to admit it or not, "government" begins forming whenever an individual becomes part of a group. Even if it's two people.

He also assumes that we don't understand his concept. Well, I do. I also understand that if it was ever applied, it would fail...............quickly.

It's the reason why the communes of the 60's failed. A total lack of government led to people reverting to their petty, lazy, greedy ways. Nobody was compelled to do anything, so they didn't.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 03, 2013, 01:15:26 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 03, 2013, 12:32:19 PM
No govt is impossible.

Two's company, three's a crowd, comes to mind.

Whether TL wants to admit it or not, "government" begins forming whenever an individual becomes part of a group. Even if it's two people.

He also assumes that we don't understand his concept. Well, I do. I also understand that if it was ever applied, it would fail...............quickly.

It's the reason why the communes of the 60's failed. A total lack of government led to people reverting to their petty, lazy, greedy ways. Nobody was compelled to do anything, so they didn't.
That's what I've been saying, any form of agreement where a system is in place that dictates rules of agreement, is in and of itself, a Govt. he can call it anything he likes, but for other Govts to recognize your system, they will view it as a govt and apply their own laws accordingly.
If they have a dispute, they will not look to his for of Govt for resolution where one has no laws with teeth to back it up.

It's nice to theorize everyone will think just like you do, but people are people, which is why we have libs and cons with opposing views, it's human nature, and no matter how hard you try, you can't make everyone the same.

Even if people agreed to the rules, their offspring didn't sign on with the same enthusiasm, which is why we have the divide we have today, not everyone appreciated the Constitution, they wanted to change it.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 03, 2013, 01:35:26 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 03, 2013, 01:15:26 PM
That's what I've been saying, any form of agreement where a system is in place that dictates rules of agreement, is in and of itself, a Govt. he can call it anything he likes, but for other Govts to recognize your system, they will view it as a govt and apply their own laws accordingly.
If they have a dispute, they will not look to his for of Govt for resolution where one has no laws with teeth to back it up.

It's nice to theorize everyone will think just like you do, but people are people, which is why we have libs and cons with opposing views, it's human nature, and no matter how hard you try, you can't make everyone the same.

Even if people agreed to the rules, their offspring didn't sign on with the same enthusiasm, which is why we have the divide we have today, not everyone appreciated the Constitution, they wanted to change it.

It's a great concept, but a society that is based on volunteer associations will fail. There will always be people, (lots of them), that will volunteer to take your shit, rather than earning their own.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 02:30:51 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 03, 2013, 11:34:45 AM
I'm a self educated man, the majority of my knowledge base is from tons of research and experience.
Yes, I've read crib notes of many books, only to lead me to pursue the actual events by those that were there, which is one reason I never fall for conspiracy theory, I want the facts, not a bunch of wild theories from a myriad of so called experts.

I do not come to final conclusions based on other opinions, it really is that simple.

This also explains why you theorize your style of "not Govt" would work in today's climate, and why I say it wouldn't, you deal in theory, I deal in fact.

Nothing wrong with the way you come to conclusions, it's just not the way I do it.

I honestly don't believe any of that makes any sense.

The big divide between theory and fact is oversold.

Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 02:32:23 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 03, 2013, 12:32:19 PM
No govt is impossible.

Two's company, three's a crowd, comes to mind.

Whether TL wants to admit it or not, "government" begins forming whenever an individual becomes part of a group. Even if it's two people.

He also assumes that we don't understand his concept. Well, I do. I also understand that if it was ever applied, it would fail...............quickly.

It's the reason why the communes of the 60's failed. A total lack of government led to people reverting to their petty, lazy, greedy ways. Nobody was compelled to do anything, so they didn't.

That is completely wrong.

Government is not whatever you want it to mean.

I can be around a group of friends, hell, I will be tonight.

That does not mean we have government.

Not a one of them would respect my claim of rule, if I were to assert it.

No more than a corporation is a government.

The word government has a specific meaning.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 02:33:18 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 03, 2013, 01:35:26 PM
It's a great concept, but a society that is based on volunteer associations will fail. There will always be people, (lots of them), that will volunteer to take your shit, rather than earning their own.

Well, history shows this to be wrong.

Many societies have thrived with voluntary forms of law enforcement.

One exists today.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 04, 2013, 02:50:37 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 02:30:51 PM
I honestly don't believe any of that makes any sense.

The big divide between theory and fact is oversold.
Seriously? Theory: a concept that is not yet verified but that if true would explain certain facts or phenomena.
I know I don't need to explain fact.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 02:53:55 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 04, 2013, 02:50:37 PM
Seriously? Theory: a concept that is not yet verified but that if true would explain certain facts or phenomena.
I know I don't need to explain fact.

I am afraid the matter is a bit more complex, than that.

In order to have facts, we have to take measurements of things in reality.

In order to measure some part of reality, we have to ignore other parts.

So the mere compilation of facts presumes and requires theory- if only to know which parts of reality are relevant to the questions we are asking.

Separating the two, with some strict divide, is an illusion.

There are differences between the two, no doubt.

But we cannot ever truly untangle fact from theory.

Though, this sort of complex epistemological insight is nothing you will find with a dictionary definition of a word, or in crib notes.

In many ways, Solar, we are living in different realities, seeing different things, and meaning different things by the words we use.

Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 04, 2013, 03:01:29 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 02:53:55 PM
I am afraid the matter is a bit more complex, than that.

In order to have facts, we have to take measurements of things in reality.

In order to measure some part of reality, we have to ignore other parts.

So the mere compilation of facts presumes and requires Deduction- if only to know which parts of reality are relevant to the questions we are asking.

Separating the two, with some strict divide, is an illusion.

There are differences between the two, no doubt.

But we cannot ever truly untangle fact from theory.

Though, this sort of complex epistemological insight is nothing you will find with a dictionary definition of a word, or in crib notes.

In many ways, Solar, we are living in different realities, seeing different things, and meaning different things by the words we use.
One deduces using facts to create an complete picture, theorizing is merely guessing an outcome, actual facts fill in the blanks.
If one does not have all the facts, he can only theorize the outcome.

Like I said, I rely on facts, not conjecture.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 03:06:44 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 04, 2013, 03:01:29 PM
One deduces using facts to create an complete picture, theorizing is merely guessing an outcome, actual facts fill in the blanks.
If one does not have all the facts, he can only theorize the outcome.

Like I said, I rely on facts, not conjecture.

OK, Solar.

You are right.

I'll just shut up now.

You obviously know much more about this whole theory/epistemology thing than I do.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 04, 2013, 03:19:25 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 03:06:44 PM
OK, Solar.

You are right.

I'll just shut up now.

You obviously know much more about this whole theory/epistemology thing than I do.
Whatever...
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 06:22:55 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 04, 2013, 03:19:25 PM
Whatever...

Well, what other choice do I have?

It is not like you are hearing a word I am saying.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 04, 2013, 08:14:01 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 04, 2013, 06:22:55 PM
Well, what other choice do I have?

It is not like you are hearing a word I am saying.
Hello!!!! It goes both ways.

I live in a world where people deal in factual evidence, not theory, conspiracy, or fantasy, it is either factually true, or it's conjecture, you can't have both and still have it factual.
What you do get is a story filled in with opinion, nothing else.

It's the same reason you believe your system of non Govt is possible, you live under the illusion that everything you've read on the topic is fact, when most of what I've read is more hope and opinion than reality.
Wanting something to be true, is not the same as having all the facts, facts like the human equation, people are honest, to a point.
Theory will not make it work, it really is that simple.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 05, 2013, 06:37:30 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 04, 2013, 08:14:01 PM
Hello!!!! It goes both ways.

Nah- I hear what your saying.

I just think it is stupid.

On the other hand, my words are flying right over your head.

Quote

I live in a world where people deal in factual evidence, not theory, conspiracy, or fantasy, it is either factually true, or it's conjecture, you can't have both and still have it factual.
What you do get is a story filled in with opinion, nothing else.

It's the same reason you believe your system of non Govt is possible, you live under the illusion that everything you've read on the topic is fact, when most of what I've read is more hope and opinion than reality.
Wanting something to be true, is not the same as having all the facts, facts like the human equation, people are honest, to a point.
Theory will not make it work, it really is that simple.

Obviously, you know my position better than me.

So I might as well just shut up.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 05, 2013, 06:46:14 AM
But that is not my style, to shut up.

The idea that facts can be had without theory is for fools.

For fools.

Facts are theory laden.

Their mere collection, observation and selection requires a theory.

But this discussion on epistemology is not something you will learn about on CNN, or reading "cribs notes."

This is the kind of stuff, much like economics, physics, philosophy and chemistry, that actually requires some study and sacrifice, to understand.

The writing is on the wall.

This is the wrong place to bring up stuff like this.

Lesson learned. No prob.
Title: it was party time where I was
Post by: Vern on February 05, 2013, 06:59:36 AM
geez, I go away one weekend and you guys are talking about vietnam.

anyhoo, toward I really enjoyed your graphs.  Usually your posts are just attempts to 'shave' the rough edges off the truth.   But for you  to A make a claim that the stock market is disconnected from the economy and B think you've in any way proven it with your graphs is far fetched at best.    You didn't attempt to prove that the market is inflated beyond what one would expect based on the future worth of corp profits.  A case could be made for that.  You have the made the incredible statement that its completely disconnected from the economy. 

And the best part is it has nothing to do with my post.  4 years ago, cons predicted the 'end of the world'. Not only did it not happen but we had one of the greatest bull runs in history.  And  if Obama was a republican, cons would be singing the praises of his economy with the DOW as proof. 

kind of reminds of 93. You couldnt have a conversation with a con without them saying "double dip" .  Literally they walked around like zombies just saying 'double dip" . They were told that Clintons tax increases on the top 20% would certainly cause a double dip.  Long story short, once again the exact opposite of what cons 'predict' happened. 
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 05, 2013, 08:04:31 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 05, 2013, 06:46:14 AM
But that is not my style, to shut up.

The idea that facts can be had without theory is for fools.

For fools.

Facts are theory laden.

Their mere collection, observation and selection requires a theory.

But this discussion on epistemology is not something you will learn about on CNN, or reading "cribs notes."

This is the kind of stuff, much like economics, physics, philosophy and chemistry, that actually requires some study and sacrifice, to understand.

The writing is on the wall.

This is the wrong place to bring up stuff like this.

Lesson learned. No prob.
Time lines written by the participants of an historical event are facts, when historians try and theorize, they are doing what is referred to as filling in the blanks, this is opinion of the author.
Why is it so hard for you to understand everyone has an opinion unique to themselves, these are not facts, they are Theories/Opinions!

Yes, the do make it easier for the laymen when looking for context, but science doesn't make conclusion based on theory, it bases it on solid facts.
It's why AGW is held in such great contempt by the right, it's writing law based in theory. Are you saying leftist are right in following the formula you seem to hold so dear?
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Cryptic Bert on February 05, 2013, 08:03:55 PM
Big surprise when the Fed continues propping up the economy :rolleyes:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 12, 2013, 07:04:38 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 05, 2013, 08:04:31 AM
Time lines written by the participants of an historical event are facts, when historians try and theorize, they are doing what is referred to as filling in the blanks, this is opinion of the author.

And the selection of which facts are relevant to measure, by the participants, is rooted in theory.

I don't know why this is so hard for you understand.

Quote
Why is it so hard for you to understand everyone has an opinion unique to themselves, these are not facts, they are Theories/Opinions!

That is not hard to understand.

Quote

Yes, the do make it easier for the laymen when looking for context, but science doesn't make conclusion based on theory, it bases it on solid facts.

All science is based on theory.

There is no fact without theory, and there is no conclusion about the relationship between facts without theory.

Quote
It's why AGW is held in such great contempt by the right, it's writing law based in theory. Are you saying leftist are right in following the formula you seem to hold so dear?

AGW is held in contempt because it is a rouse for central planning.

All economics is nothing but theoretical statements of universal laws governing choice and human action.

Should we toss out economics because it is rooted in theory?
Title: Re: it was party time where I was
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 12, 2013, 07:10:39 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 05, 2013, 06:59:36 AM

anyhoo, toward I really enjoyed your graphs.

Thanks!

Quote

Usually your posts are just attempts to 'shave' the rough edges off the truth.

Or to shave the rough edges off our understanding and therefore to expose the truth?

Quote

  But for you  to A make a claim that the stock market is disconnected from the economy and B think you've in any way proven it with your graphs is far fetched at best.    You didn't attempt to prove that the market is inflated beyond what one would expect based on the future worth of corp profits.  A case could be made for that.  You have the made the incredible statement that its completely disconnected from the economy. 

And I proved it.

It was 2 parts.

The first part demonstrated that the money unit has been tampered with. Therefore, economic calculation will be distorted.

Then I showed the fed funds rate and how we centrally plan it.

Since the interest rate is necessary to calculate the time value of money, and since discounted future earnings drive stock market prices, we are staring face to face with the distorting mechanism.

So the mechanism for ascertaining value in the market is broken.

And then we looked at final sales and the baltic dry for a look at the real economy- which was depressing.

But yet the stock market is reaching new highs!

So obviously we have a disconnection from reality!

The stock market is going up because of the relationship between weak currency and corporate profits made overseas, booked in US dollars.
Quote

And the best part is it has nothing to do with my post.  4 years ago, cons predicted the 'end of the world'. Not only did it not happen but we had one of the greatest bull runs in history.  And  if Obama was a republican, cons would be singing the praises of his economy with the DOW as proof. 

kind of reminds of 93. You couldnt have a conversation with a con without them saying "double dip" .  Literally they walked around like zombies just saying 'double dip" . They were told that Clintons tax increases on the top 20% would certainly cause a double dip.  Long story short, once again the exact opposite of what cons 'predict' happened.

I dont remember what your post said.

But if it was anything like the above, with the partisan political awareness, then I probably didn't reply on purpose!
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 12, 2013, 08:53:13 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 12, 2013, 07:04:38 AM
And the selection of which facts are relevant to measure, by the participants, is rooted in theory.

I don't know why this is so hard for you understand.

That is not hard to understand.

All science is based on theory.

There is no fact without theory, and there is no conclusion about the relationship between facts without theory.

AGW is held in contempt because it is a rouse for central planning.

All economics is nothing but theoretical statements of universal laws governing choice and human action.

Should we toss out economics because it is rooted in theory?
Yes, all science is based in theory at one time, until it is proven to be fact.
Theory is the culmination of opinion, fact on the other hand?
I think the answer is self explanatory.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 12, 2013, 03:21:32 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 12, 2013, 08:53:13 AM
Yes, all science is based in theory at one time, until it is proven to be fact.
Theory is the culmination of opinion, fact on the other hand?
I think the answer is self explanatory.

Theory is never proven to be fact, in modern empirical science.

Instead, scientists attempt to falsify theory and if they can't, they accept it for the time being. Though, they never claim to have found something "true."

I am not an empiricist, so this does not describe my thinking regarding theory.

And no, theory is not the culmination of opinion.

That is outright nonsense and is an example of why discussing this topic can become so painful, on here.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 12, 2013, 04:17:47 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 12, 2013, 03:21:32 PM
Theory is never proven to be fact, in modern empirical science.

Instead, scientists attempt to falsify theory and if they can't, they accept it for the time being. Though, they never claim to have found something "true."

I am not an empiricist, so this does not describe my thinking regarding theory.

And no, theory is not the culmination of opinion.

That is outright nonsense and is an example of why discussing this topic can become so painful, on here.
Pay close attention.

1
: the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another
2
: abstract thought : speculation
3
: the general or abstract principles of a body of fact, a science, or an art <music theory>
4
a : a belief, policy, or procedure proposed or followed as the basis of action <her method is based on the theory that all children want to learn>
b : an ideal or hypothetical set of facts, principles, or circumstances —often used in the phrase in theory <in theory, we have always advocated freedom for all>
5
: a plausible or scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena <the wave theory of light>
6
a : a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation
b : an unproved assumption : conjectur
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theory (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theory)
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 13, 2013, 06:33:32 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 12, 2013, 04:17:47 PM
Pay close attention.

1
: the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another
2
: abstract thought : speculation
3
: the general or abstract principles of a body of fact, a science, or an art <music theory>
4
a : a belief, policy, or procedure proposed or followed as the basis of action <her method is based on the theory that all children want to learn>
b : an ideal or hypothetical set of facts, principles, or circumstances —often used in the phrase in theory <in theory, we have always advocated freedom for all>
5
: a plausible or scientifically acceptable general principle or body of principles offered to explain phenomena <the wave theory of light>
6
a : a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation
b : an unproved assumption : conjectur
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theory (http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/theory)

Ok.

What is the point?

Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 13, 2013, 06:35:53 AM
The mere selection of certain phenomenon to record and observe, in nature, for the purpose of establishing a factual account of some event, requires a theory of what caused what, if only to separate the aspects of nature that are relevant to our question from those which are not.

And I am afraid the dictionary and the cribs notes fail to shine much light on these types of questions...

In this debate on theory, method, fact and reality, I am debating with myself.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 13, 2013, 08:09:19 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 13, 2013, 06:35:53 AM
The mere selection of certain phenomenon to record and observe, in nature, for the purpose of establishing a factual account of some event, requires a theory of what caused what, if only to separate the aspects of nature that are relevant to our question from those which are not.

And I am afraid the dictionary and the cribs notes fail to shine much light on these types of questions...

In this debate on theory, method, fact and reality, I am debating with myself.
And losing on top of it all.

Which brings us full circle, you are basing a society on unproven theory.
To convince anyone your theory will work, you need solid facts to back it up, none of which exist.
You are a dreamer, a theoretician, an experimenter in human nature.

Like I said earlier, I'd love to live in the world you describe, but man has proven since the beginning of time, he does not learn from his mistakes and needs to be ruled, or he himself will attempt rule over others.
It's human nature of conquer or be conquered, even the animal world lives by these laws, and we are no different as a species vying for the top of the food chain.

Our Founders were on the same idea that less rule was better, and I totally concur, but they too knew that man needed structure, but also knew that structure needed containment which led to the development of the Bill of Rights.
And now look where we are, nearing the precipice of socialism or survival.
Your system, like so many before it will also be in a continual state of flux fighting for it's very preservation, one that would quickly fail without the threat of severe pain, something man understands.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 11:49:58 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 13, 2013, 08:09:19 AM
And losing on top of it all.

Which brings us full circle, you are basing a society on unproven theory.
To convince anyone your theory will work, you need solid facts to back it up, none of which exist.
You are a dreamer, a theoretician, an experimenter in human nature.

Like I said earlier, I'd love to live in the world you describe, but man has proven since the beginning of time, he does not learn from his mistakes and needs to be ruled, or he himself will attempt rule over others.
It's human nature of conquer or be conquered, even the animal world lives by these laws, and we are no different as a species vying for the top of the food chain.

Our Founders were on the same idea that less rule was better, and I totally concur, but they too knew that man needed structure, but also knew that structure needed containment which led to the development of the Bill of Rights.
And now look where we are, nearing the precipice of socialism or survival.
Your system, like so many before it will also be in a continual state of flux fighting for it's very preservation, one that would quickly fail without the threat of severe pain, something man understands.

His theory works perfectly.................as long as the bad guys never outnumber or outgun the good guys.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 13, 2013, 01:02:16 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 11:49:58 AM
His theory works perfectly.................as long as the bad guys never outnumber or outgun the good guys.
Exactly!
The whole concept, is and would always be extremely vulnerable.
It's basically a true Democracy, and we know from history just how well those workout.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 02:39:50 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 13, 2013, 01:02:16 PM
Exactly!
The whole concept, is and would always be extremely vulnerable.
It's basically a true Democracy, and we know from history just how well those workout.

It would be great if it could work like that, but it leaves out so many things, that it's not worth considering.

The military, the behavior of corporations in which no one individual is responsible, a penal system to punish the people that won't comply.............in the end, what you have is government. There's no way around it.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 13, 2013, 03:02:17 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 02:39:50 PM
It would be great if it could work like that, but it leaves out so many things, that it's not worth considering.

The military, the behavior of corporations in which no one individual is responsible, a penal system to punish the people that won't comply.............in the end, what you have is government. There's no way around it.
But noooo, that can't be, TL specifically stated it's not a Govt. :laugh:

I know, you can't have tranquility if people don't have barriers with which to work within, people need to know that others are Bound by the same rules, rules that carry more than simple excommunication.
Those removed from this grand experiment will unite and chaos will soon be the rule of the day.

Corporations will quickly arm themselves creating security forces, and not one will be in charge.
Africa is a perfect example of what happens when warlords take power, and that's exactly what the corporations will be, modern day warlords.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 03:18:48 PM
Quote from: Solar on February 13, 2013, 03:02:17 PM
But noooo, that can't be, TL specifically stated it's not a Govt. :laugh:

I know, you can't have tranquility if people don't have barriers with which to work within, people need to know that others are Bound by the same rules, rules that carry more than simple excommunication.
Those removed from this grand experiment will unite and chaos will soon be the rule of the day.

Corporations will quickly arm themselves creating security forces, and not one will be in charge.
Africa is a perfect example of what happens when warlords take power, and that's exactly what the corporations will be, modern day warlords.

Well, I still like TL and his contributions to the forum. I don't agree with the anarchy thing though. I just can't imagine it working. Especially if it was implemented today, with our massive populations of dependents and criminals. :confused:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 13, 2013, 03:22:58 PM
Quote from: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 03:18:48 PM
Well, I still like TL and his contributions to the forum. I don't agree with the anarchy thing though. I just can't imagine it working. Especially if it was implemented today, with our massive populations of dependents and criminals. :confused:
I agree, TL is a bright guy, though I don't think he has stepped beyond class yet.
And I agree, the only way this could begin, is if you had a new continent to start over on and screen every person coming in, if they aren't rich, they need a skill in high demand.

Like I said earlier, it's nothing but a fantasy.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 14, 2013, 07:17:22 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 13, 2013, 08:09:19 AM
And losing on top of it all.

Which brings us full circle, you are basing a society on unproven theory.
To convince anyone your theory will work, you need solid facts to back it up, none of which exist.
You are a dreamer, a theoretician, an experimenter in human nature.

Like I said earlier, I'd love to live in the world you describe, but man has proven since the beginning of time, he does not learn from his mistakes and needs to be ruled, or he himself will attempt rule over others.
It's human nature of conquer or be conquered, even the animal world lives by these laws, and we are no different as a species vying for the top of the food chain.

Our Founders were on the same idea that less rule was better, and I totally concur, but they too knew that man needed structure, but also knew that structure needed containment which led to the development of the Bill of Rights.
And now look where we are, nearing the precipice of socialism or survival.
Your system, like so many before it will also be in a continual state of flux fighting for it's very preservation, one that would quickly fail without the threat of severe pain, something man understands.

If I am losing it why did you change the subject?

We started off talking about theory, method, fact and science.

And now we are pivoting to a discussion on anarchy, society and state.

And if you thought I lost the debate we were having on theory, then I have some ocean front property, in Arizona..

Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 14, 2013, 07:21:03 AM
Quote from: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 11:49:58 AM
His theory works perfectly.................as long as the bad guys never outnumber or outgun the good guys.

Obviously, they do.

Or humans wouldn't have enjoyed thousands of years of social cooperation and coordination.

The mere existence of society is all the proof I need.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on February 14, 2013, 07:22:18 AM
Quote from: kramarat on February 13, 2013, 02:39:50 PM
It would be great if it could work like that, but it leaves out so many things, that it's not worth considering.

The military, the behavior of corporations in which no one individual is responsible, a penal system to punish the people that won't comply.............in the end, what you have is government. There's no way around it.

I love watching two people attack an idea that they don't really have a clue about.

No offense.

The dynamic fascinates me.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on February 14, 2013, 09:53:46 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 14, 2013, 07:22:18 AM
I love watching two people attack an idea that they don't really have a clue about.

No offense.

The dynamic fascinates me.

I haven't really been in attack mode. The sum total of what I know, is based on a little video about a volunteer society, which was made by libertarians that think like you. They left out a lot of stuff in the perfect world they were trying to present.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 14, 2013, 12:29:14 PM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on February 14, 2013, 07:17:22 AM
If I am losing it why did you change the subject?

We started off talking about theory, method, fact and science.

And now we are pivoting to a discussion on anarchy, society and state.

And if you thought I lost the debate we were having on theory, then I have some ocean front property, in Arizona..
Nothing has changed, you theorize that your form of non govt, govt, will somehow miraculously grow from the ashes of half the country not participating in elections.
That's a fools bet, which makes the rest of your proposal extremely suspect, therein raising the burden of proof on your part to make your case.

There are too many gray areas in what you're proposing, you give no facts to back it up, merely theory.

Let me give you an example of theory, I theorize from my observations, that Husein is planning a civil war, if one connects all the dots and compares them to history, percentage wise, there is a good chance that is his plan.
However, since I have no verifiable facts to state my case, we cannot move against him, instead we are stuck with theory or conjecture.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Mountainshield on February 18, 2013, 04:28:20 AM
It seems to me that your "no government" based society is based on "Rouseallian" presumption that mankind is good and will always seek cooperation over conflict if given the choice.

I.e
Rousseau presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he helps him recover out of mutual respect/love and together they live in harmony.

John Locke presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he helps him out of self interest and together they strive to conquer nature.

Thomas Hobbes presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he quickly stomps his skulls in and nicks his stuff because he knows the dying man would do the same to him if given the chance.

Rousseau based his presumption on the theory of the supposed noble savage, something that is still embraced by hippies today, but disproved by factual evidence of savages in all places of the world. As far as epistemology goes, you can observe an event or events and make generalizations that this is a general law or natural law, but stating that theory/fact will always happen is comparing a given number against infinity which will always make the theory/fact fallible because you cant have infinite amount of data. But then again that whole argument is an oxymoron, because it is impossibility in itself. We have to work with what we have in the metaphysical framework given to us by God, and hypothesis proven to be qualitative/quantitative true is a fact until disproven, that it may be disproved doesn't make it any less valid.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 18, 2013, 05:38:51 AM
Quote from: Mountainshield on February 18, 2013, 04:28:20 AM
It seems to me that your "no government" based society is based on "Rouseallian" presumption that mankind is good and will always seek cooperation over conflict if given the choice.

I.e
Rousseau presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he helps him recover out of mutual respect/love and together they live in harmony.

John Locke presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he helps him out of self interest and together they strive to conquer nature.

Thomas Hobbes presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he quickly stomps his skulls in and nicks his stuff because he knows the dying man would do the same to him if given the chance.

Rousseau based his presumption on the theory of the supposed noble savage, something that is still embraced by hippies today, but disproved by factual evidence of savages in all places of the world. As far as epistemology goes, you can observe an event or events and make generalizations that this is a general law or natural law, but stating that theory/fact will always happen is comparing a given number against infinity which will always make the theory/fact fallible because you cant have infinite amount of data. But then again that whole argument is an oxymoron, because it is impossibility in itself. We have to work with what we have in the metaphysical framework given to us by God, and hypothesis proven to be qualitative/quantitative true is a fact until disproven, that it may be disproved doesn't make it any less valid.
Great point.
Rousseau was a liberal, in that he was a dreamer imprinting his value set upon the rest oh humanity, and Hobbes knew man to be inherently good, but also an opportunist and will consider his own station or status in life first.

Like most thinking people who weigh all of history, not just the good events, realize there have been cultures since the beginning of time that would see you as merely dinner had they happened upon a wounded man, like Korowai tribe of Papau New Gunieau, a tribe that would happily make you the focus of dinner, or rather, the main course.
Does anyone even remotely think they hold the same set of values as the rest of us?

You make an excellent point with your examples.
In essence what he is trying to do is in effect predict the outcome of the future based on theory, like claiming only one side need lay down their arms and war would end.
End badly for one side that is, but, end none the less, in the same way he claims not voting will collapse the Govt.
Pretty ludicrous way of achieving victory. For the other side, that is. :biggrin:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Mountainshield on February 18, 2013, 10:34:38 AM
Yeah Hobbes saw government as a necessity as a protection for the individual against the mob, he lived through the english civil war and saw it first hand. The difference between Locke and Hobbes is essentially that Hobbes believes the state to be a covenant between citizen and Monarch, and no matter how bad the Monarch can be, the alternative which is a state of nature (the strong preys on the weak, i.e socialist state the mob preys on the individual) the Monarch is always preferable. Whereas Locke believes the moment government stop protecting private property rights of citizens is the moment the covenant is broken.

Universal values, now thats a good discussion, from what I remember Socrates held the belief that a given set of values are superior, and these can be found universally in most cultures, but obviouslynot all. At the other hand you have the bronze age equivalents of modern day liberals called the Relativists that claimed no moral/cultural value is superior its all relative.

When it comes to savages this is perfectly reflected in tribes such as the "Korowai" as you described who the left claim to be culturally equivalent to western society. I have still to hear a good argument from a liberal/socialist on why Sharia is morally eqvivalent to our universal suffrage society though  :tounge:

It is funny though, as you said in another thread some cultures have found the universal God given truths thousands of years ago, but the battle between those who embrace those values and the relativists is still the same as today.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on February 18, 2013, 10:57:58 AM
Quote from: Mountainshield on February 18, 2013, 10:34:38 AM
Yeah Hobbes saw government as a necessity as a protection for the individual against the mob, he lived through the english civil war and saw it first hand. The difference between Locke and Hobbes is essentially that Hobbes believes the state to be a covenant between citizen and Monarch, and no matter how bad the Monarch can be, the alternative which is a state of nature (the strong preys on the weak, i.e socialist state the mob preys on the individual) the Monarch is always preferable. Whereas Locke believes the moment government stop protecting private property rights of citizens is the moment the covenant is broken.

Universal values, now thats a good discussion, from what I remember Socrates held the belief that a given set of values are superior, and these can be found universally in most cultures, but obviouslynot all. At the other hand you have the bronze age equivalents of modern day liberals called the Relativists that claimed no moral/cultural value is superior its all relative.

When it comes to savages this is perfectly reflected in tribes such as the "Korowai" as you described who the left claim to be culturally equivalent to western society. I have still to hear a good argument from a liberal/socialist on why Sharia is morally eqvivalent to our universal suffrage society though  :tounge:

It is funny though, as you said in another thread some cultures have found the universal God given truths thousands of years ago, but the battle between those who embrace those values and the relativists is still the same as today.
Ah yeas, moral relativism and why libs believe in true Democracies and hate our Republic.
They hate barriers, they are under the illusion that whatever the majority deems moral is therefore the law of the land.
I have yet to see a business prosper under true Democratic rule. Yet libs still think we can manipulate the Bill of Rights and Constitution to reflect the morals of the day, in turn throwing out the very laws that have allowed us to prosper as a people.
There is no need to throw away a perfectly good form of governance only to replace it with a a proven failure, true Democracy, which is exactly what is being proposed in this thread by TL.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: simpsonofpg on March 07, 2013, 01:41:03 PM
Obama had nothing to do with the Dow, it was all private industry.  How many jobs did the unions create or how many companies did they start up.  The answer is none.  Small independent businessmen ventured they future and won.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on March 11, 2013, 08:28:52 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 14, 2013, 12:29:14 PM
Nothing has changed, you theorize that your form of non govt, govt, will somehow miraculously grow from the ashes of half the country not participating in elections.


I dont believe that is the case at all.

Rather not voting is merely a means to bring down the current system.

That in and of itself will go a long way but is not the final step in forming a contract society.

Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on March 11, 2013, 08:30:31 AM
Quote from: Mountainshield on February 18, 2013, 04:28:20 AM
It seems to me that your "no government" based society is based on "Rouseallian" presumption that mankind is good and will always seek cooperation over conflict if given the choice.

I.e
Rousseau presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he helps him recover out of mutual respect/love and together they live in harmony.

John Locke presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he helps him out of self interest and together they strive to conquer nature.

Thomas Hobbes presumption:
Man comes over a dying man in the woods, he quickly stomps his skulls in and nicks his stuff because he knows the dying man would do the same to him if given the chance.

Rousseau based his presumption on the theory of the supposed noble savage, something that is still embraced by hippies today, but disproved by factual evidence of savages in all places of the world. As far as epistemology goes, you can observe an event or events and make generalizations that this is a general law or natural law, but stating that theory/fact will always happen is comparing a given number against infinity which will always make the theory/fact fallible because you cant have infinite amount of data. But then again that whole argument is an oxymoron, because it is impossibility in itself. We have to work with what we have in the metaphysical framework given to us by God, and hypothesis proven to be qualitative/quantitative true is a fact until disproven, that it may be disproved doesn't make it any less valid.

I would point to Locke before I would Rousseau, in terms of intellectual pedigree.

Though, I fail to see any merit in Hobbes. If man is too flawed to get along, then he is much to flawed to rule of others.

And the spontaneous order theory of society, language, money and law also contradicts the Hobbesian view that a government is necessary to have society.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: TowardLiberty on March 11, 2013, 08:31:34 AM
Quote from: Solar on February 18, 2013, 10:57:58 AM

There is no need to throw away a perfectly good form of governance only to replace it with a a proven failure, true Democracy, which is exactly what is being proposed in this thread by TL.
No one votes in a contract society so I dont know what is democratic about it.

That strikes me as a little absurd!
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on March 11, 2013, 08:57:00 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on March 11, 2013, 08:28:52 AM
I dont believe that is the case at all.

Rather not voting is merely a means to bring down the current system.

That in and of itself will go a long way but is not the final step in forming a contract society.
Really? Tell that to those that fought for your the right to sit on the sidelines awaiting collapse.
Giving new meaning to the absurd....
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on March 11, 2013, 08:57:37 AM
Quote from: TowardLiberty on March 11, 2013, 08:31:34 AM
No one votes in a contract society so I dont know what is democratic about it.

That strikes me as a little absurd!
So no one has a voice?
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: AndyJackson on March 12, 2013, 02:57:25 PM
The dow is now going up and down based on hope and despair.  Hope whenever anything that remotely looks like deficit-fighting occurs, despair whenever new spending and taxing make it look like things are getting worse.

A long time ago the dow was a place where capital was raised, and the pulse of the business world could be taken.  And it was a good barometer of the economy.

For the last 20 or so years, it was bastardized into a casino for Wall Street.  Where insane speculation, shorting, and derivatives made it representative of nothing except a free-for-all, where the strongest changed the direction and fabric of it to try and hatch new schemes.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: simpsonofpg on April 12, 2013, 05:46:03 PM
Since this thread started the DOW has gone crazy.  I am hoping that my retirment will improve before the next bust.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: supsalemgr on April 13, 2013, 04:39:37 AM
The market will continue to thrive as long as there is free money from the Fed. My guy and I were talking this week and he advised he thought it was time to take some profits.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on April 13, 2013, 05:05:57 AM
Quote from: supsalemgr on April 13, 2013, 04:39:37 AM
The market will continue to thrive as long as there is free money from the Fed. My guy and I were talking this week and he advised he thought it was time to take some profits.
Or all you profits and holdings as well.
That's the problem with bubbles, if something signals a warning and people panic pullout, the bubble pops.
One has to determine how much they are willing to lose in a mkt like this.
You're right, as long as it's propped up, the gamble isn't all that big, but even the Fed can't control human nature of panic selling, if a consensus forms that the bubble is too big, a sell off could dissolve all profits and leave you with a worthless piece of paper.

Personally? I'd have gotten out long ago, no profit is worth the possible loss that many will experience when the whole pyramid scheme collapses.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on April 13, 2013, 06:04:41 AM
Quote from: Solar on April 13, 2013, 05:05:57 AM
Or all you profits and holdings as well.
That's the problem with bubbles, if something signals a warning and people panic pullout, the bubble pops.
One has to determine how much they are willing to lose in a mkt like this.
You're right, as long as it's propped up, the gamble isn't all that big, but even the Fed can't control human nature of panic selling, if a consensus forms that the bubble is too big, a sell off could dissolve all profits and leave you with a worthless piece of paper.

Personally? I'd have gotten out long ago, no profit is worth the possible loss that many will experience when the whole pyramid scheme collapses.

I don't see a lot of choices for us. My wife has a 401k that is doing fairly well...getting close to $100k. There is just no place else to put it, plus, if we take it out, taxes and penalties cut it in half.

On the other hand, it got cut almost in half during the bust, and it's back up. The way I figure it, if Obama makes the dollar worthless, everybody's dollar will be worthless. Collective misery. I'm glad we don't require much to be happy. :unsure:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on April 13, 2013, 06:19:06 AM
Quote from: kramarat on April 13, 2013, 06:04:41 AM
I don't see a lot of choices for us. My wife has a 401k that is doing fairly well...getting close to $100k. There is just no place else to put it, plus, if we take it out, taxes and penalties cut it in half.

On the other hand, it got cut almost in half during the bust, and it's back up. The way I figure it, if Obama makes the dollar worthless, everybody's dollar will be worthless. Collective misery. I'm glad we don't require much to be happy. :unsure:
You need to contact a CPA or get some real financial advice so you can move it without penalty to a safer haven, maybe land or something.
Even the penalty for cashing in might be worth the loss now as opposed to.....
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Bowhntr on April 13, 2013, 07:21:46 AM
Quote from: kramarat on April 13, 2013, 06:04:41 AM
I don't see a lot of choices for us. My wife has a 401k that is doing fairly well...getting close to $100k. There is just no place else to put it, plus, if we take it out, taxes and penalties cut it in half.

On the other hand, it got cut almost in half during the bust, and it's back up. The way I figure it, if Obama makes the dollar worthless, everybody's dollar will be worthless. Collective misery. I'm glad we don't require much to be happy. :unsure:

Just move the money in the 401(k) to a different fund inside the 401 system, like a stable money market etc.  That will insulate the money against wild market fluctuations.  Of course the return is not as good but that is the trade off.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on April 13, 2013, 07:25:18 AM
Quote from: Bowhntr on April 13, 2013, 07:21:46 AM
Just move the money in the 401(k) to a different fund inside the 401 system, like a stable money market etc.  That will insulate the money against wild market fluctuations.  Of course the return is not as good but that is the trade off.
Definitely leaps and bounds safer than the stock Mkt.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: kramarat on April 13, 2013, 07:31:46 AM
Quote from: Bowhntr on April 13, 2013, 07:21:46 AM
Just move the money in the 401(k) to a different fund inside the 401 system, like a stable money market etc.  That will insulate the money against wild market fluctuations.  Of course the return is not as good but that is the trade off.

The money is in fairly low risk areas, and isn't dependent on the US stock market. 3 year return is around 8%.

My biggest worry isn't the eventual bust of Obama's stock bubble, but that he's going to find a way to take the money away and force us into some kind of federal retirement fund.

We are running out of places to hide from the Obama dictatorship, and it scares me. :sad:
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: simpsonofpg on May 03, 2013, 09:43:49 AM
Quote from: Vern on February 01, 2013, 05:20:37 PM
Wow, who would have thought 4 short years after President Obama started, the DOW would be up almost 6000 points. well I think safe to say "nobody at this board".

Was it only 4 years ago, the screams and chants from the right were

"THE MARKET IS GOING TO ZERO"
"WE WILL HAVE HYPER INFLATION"
"THE DOLLAR WILL COLLAPSE"
"SOCIALISM SOCIALISM SOCIALISM"

here's one of the supposed leading 'financial' newspapers. 

"
Obama's Radicalism Is Killing the Dow
"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946717.html)

When they wrote that the DOW was about 6500.  Thats down from inauguration day of about 8200.  How could a supposed 'financial' paper miss the first 6000 point drop of that massive market crash?
WOW only 2 weeks later it is 15000 and Obama did it all.  It doesn't explain the 6 trillion in debt but hey good news is good news.
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: simpsonofpg on May 08, 2013, 09:30:49 AM
Now if we can just get gold back to $1800/oz.  I keep thinking the
Dow is like a monoply game
Title: Re: WOW 14000 DOW
Post by: Solar on May 08, 2013, 09:52:16 AM
Quote from: simpsonofpg on May 08, 2013, 09:30:49 AM
Now if we can just get gold back to $1800/oz.  I keep thinking the
Dow is like a monoply game
And the banker is in cahoots with certain players.