Trump Economy: When you look at the data, far less impressive than it seemed

Started by Castle_Bravo, June 19, 2020, 03:58:41 PM

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joesixpack

Quote from: taxed on June 20, 2020, 01:03:46 PM
Huge difference.  First, I wrote those articles to provide context and commentary around the graphs.  I took the time to put forth the argument.  You  have not, and clearly never will.

Second, you continue the obfuscation as every Obama sycophant has continued to do: dodge the question as to why less people working can bring down the unemployment rate, and on top of that, call it a "recovery".

I encourage you to take the time and figure that out and bring me your best argument.

Also, per the articles and sources I used, it's beyond stupid to suggest Hussein could take any credit for Trump's economy.
Well, you gauged our economy by 6 factors in this article

https://conservativehardliner.com/data-proves-obamas-dying-economy-recovering-under-president-trump

But if looking at all of those factors, the trends were mostly there and the growth has been stable and in line with what was already happening.











The one thing that really boomed was optimism due to having a pro-business guy in office. Also the LFPR went up but that could be due to a number of reasons, including previously discouraged workers coming back into the fold. But even that was just a 3% increase in total.

You may be right as to why the economy has continued to grow. But there's also reasons why it was already growing. And the change from one Administration to the next hasn't resulted in any dramatic change, objectively speaking.
Rules of Engagement

noun: democracy
a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

Reps pre 1912 = mostly Progressive
Dems pre 1928 = mostly Conservative

taxed

Quote from: joesixpack on June 20, 2020, 01:30:02 PM
Well, you gauged our economy by 6 factors in this article

https://conservativehardliner.com/data-proves-obamas-dying-economy-recovering-under-president-trump

But if looking at all of those factors, the trends were mostly there and the growth has been stable and in line with what was already happening.

I'll hit the others one-by-one, but first you need to address the labor participation rate with the unemployment rate.  I appreciate your attempt to cloud the conversation with graphs that you believe support your position, but we need to start with your premise that the economy was growing.

Let me ask again: how was the unemployment rate dropping as less people were working?  Please explain.
#PureBlood #TrumpWon

joesixpack

Quote from: taxed on June 20, 2020, 01:39:07 PM
I'll hit the others one-by-one, but first you need to address the labor participation rate with the unemployment rate.  I appreciate your attempt to cloud the conversation with graphs that you believe support your position, but we need to start with your premise that the economy was growing.

Let me ask again: how was the unemployment rate dropping as less people were working?  Please explain.

I addressed that in my previous post. It could be a number of things. Including discouraged workers dropping out of the official economy.
Rules of Engagement

noun: democracy
a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

Reps pre 1912 = mostly Progressive
Dems pre 1928 = mostly Conservative

taxed

Quote from: joesixpack on June 20, 2020, 01:44:11 PM
I addressed that in my previous post. It could be a number of things. Including discouraged workers dropping out of the official economy.

How does that help the unemployment rate?
#PureBlood #TrumpWon

joesixpack

Rules of Engagement

noun: democracy
a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

Reps pre 1912 = mostly Progressive
Dems pre 1928 = mostly Conservative

Solar

Quote from: joesixpack on June 20, 2020, 02:25:03 PM
I'll let you explain it.  :popcorn:
Quit dodging and answer the question. You seem to have all the answers. :rolleyes:
Official Trump Cult Member

#WWG1WGA

Q PATRIOT!!!

taxed

Quote from: Solar on June 20, 2020, 02:36:22 PM
Quit dodging and answer the question. You seem to have all the answers. :rolleyes:

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

"The Obama economy is so great that I can't find a job, so I'm giving up."... that reduced the unemployment rate.  They've never been able to explain that one, but will continue to post the unemployment numbers.
#PureBlood #TrumpWon

Solar

Quote from: taxed on June 20, 2020, 02:41:01 PM
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

"The Obama economy is so great that I can't find a job, so I'm giving up."... that reduced the unemployment rate.  They've never been able to explain that one, but will continue to post the unemployment numbers.
If Memory serves me? They simply quit counting those out of work after awhile, then counted everyone working part time as full employment.
None of this of course talks about the increase in Federal hiring, ( a drain on the system) or the "green energy" lie and shovel ready jobs that only existed on paper.
Official Trump Cult Member

#WWG1WGA

Q PATRIOT!!!

taxed

Quote from: Solar on June 20, 2020, 02:50:11 PM
If Memory serves me? They simply quit counting those out of work after awhile, then counted everyone working part time as full employment.
None of this of course talks about the increase in Federal hiring, ( a drain on the system) or the "green energy" lie and shovel ready jobs that only existed on paper.

It's worse... if you worked at least 1 hour, that was part time.

It was bad:

QuoteObama's bean counters add about 200,000 (now 224,000) imaginary jobs each month through the "Birth/Death" model that continues to suppose — contrary to the evidence — that more jobs were created in new firms (births) than lost in firms going out of business (deaths). These fake jobs account for a big percentage of the growth in employment announced by the BLS.

The bottom line is that at least 4.5 million jobs announced during the Obama presidency never existed. They were statistical adjustments inserted in the data reflecting outdated historical ratios that no longer hold true.

But this is only part of the story.

The Brookings data, along with surveys conducted by Gallup, show that far from adding 200,000 jobs through the "Birth/Death" model, a more accurate report would have subtracted 70,000 jobs a month to account for the jobs that disappeared when firms died.

That would be another 840,000 annual jobs (or 2.5 million jobs subtracted since 2014). All told, 6.95 million (or 75%) of the officially announced 9.15 million jobs supposedly created through the first quarter of 2016 were fake.

I should point out that might actually be a low estimate, as the BLS inflates jobs estimates with seasonal-adjustment shenanigans that result in double counting of the same fake jobs, and other frauds that are too complicated to get into here.
#PureBlood #TrumpWon

Solar

Quote from: taxed on June 20, 2020, 02:58:33 PM
It's worse... if you worked at least 1 hour, that was part time.

It was bad:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

But, but Joe has charts? :rolleyes:

Obama's bean counters add about 200,000 (now 224,000) imaginary jobs each month through the "Birth/Death" model that continues to suppose — contrary to the evidence — that more jobs were created in new firms (births) than lost in firms going out of business (deaths). These fake jobs account for a big percentage of the growth in employment announced by the BLS.

The bottom line is that at least 4.5 million jobs announced during the Obama presidency never existed. They were statistical adjustments inserted in the data reflecting outdated historical ratios that no longer hold true.

But this is only part of the story.

The Brookings data, along with surveys conducted by Gallup, show that far from adding 200,000 jobs through the "Birth/Death" model, a more accurate report would have subtracted 70,000 jobs a month to account for the jobs that disappeared when firms died.

That would be another 840,000 annual jobs (or 2.5 million jobs subtracted since 2014). All told, 6.95 million (or 75%) of the officially announced 9.15 million jobs supposedly created through the first quarter of 2016 were fake.

I should point out that might actually be a low estimate, as the BLS inflates jobs estimates with seasonal-adjustment shenanigans that result in double counting of the same fake jobs, and other frauds that are too complicated to get into here.
Official Trump Cult Member

#WWG1WGA

Q PATRIOT!!!

joesixpack

Quote from: Solar on June 20, 2020, 02:36:22 PM
Quit dodging and answer the question. You seem to have all the answers. :rolleyes:
I don't have the answer. But I'm listening intently.

Quote from: taxed on June 20, 2020, 02:58:33 PM
It's worse... if you worked at least 1 hour, that was part time.

It was bad:


Based on those same numbers, the Unemployment Rate went from about 23% when Obama left to 21% before Covid hit.


http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

an improvement. I wouldn't call it BOOMING.


edit: lol. btw, I thought we weren't posting Opinion pieces  :ttoung:
Rules of Engagement

noun: democracy
a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

Reps pre 1912 = mostly Progressive
Dems pre 1928 = mostly Conservative

taxed

Quote from: joesixpack on June 20, 2020, 03:12:04 PM
I don't have the answer. But I'm listening intently.

Based on those same numbers, the Unemployment Rate went from about 23% when Obama left to 21% before Covid hit.


http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

an improvement. I wouldn't call it BOOMING.


edit: lol. btw, I thought we weren't posting Opinion pieces  :ttoung:

Let's try it again:

How was the unemployment rate going down as people were leaving the workforce?
#PureBlood #TrumpWon

Possum

Quote from: taxed on June 20, 2020, 04:20:26 PM
Let's try it again:

How was the unemployment rate going down as people were leaving the workforce?
Joe must be trying to find a chart that explains it.

joesixpack

Quote from: taxed on June 20, 2020, 04:20:26 PM
Let's try it again:

How was the unemployment rate going down as people were leaving the workforce?

I don't know. I'm sure you'll educate us, though.  :popcorn:

According to the chart above from the article that you and Solar quoted, it was flat.
Rules of Engagement

noun: democracy
a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

Reps pre 1912 = mostly Progressive
Dems pre 1928 = mostly Conservative

T Hunt

Quote from: Castle_Bravo on June 19, 2020, 10:15:38 PM
So you edit my post to add material that wasn't there instead of posting it as a response below and leaving it at that? Do you commonly edit people's posts to change meaning and then not notify them?

We dont commonly have people spaming fake news on here....
"Let's Go Brandon, I agree!"  -Biden