Author Topic: The upcomimg Euroquake  (Read 5366 times)

Offline Dan

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The upcomimg Euroquake
« on: October 30, 2011, 11:01:37 AM »
Stick a fork in the EU because it's done. The collective political paralysis of the 17 nations guarantees this thing hits a wall. As a writer said, the extend and pretend strategy will only hold for so long. Eventually, without a meaningful solution we are going to see the Greece mess replay itself in Portugul, Spain, Italy and possibly more countries. Already we are seeimg the cost of fund shoot up in EU countries as much of their debt comes up for renewal. It's a short skip from here to not having access to funds to borrow and then the civil unrest that follows when govt wages and pensions are no made.

It's time to be scared and to be prepared cause the qheel are coming off in Europe. The real challenge is seeing where the dominos after Europe crashes.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Online walkstall

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2011, 07:41:45 PM »
Stick a fork in the EU because it's done. The collective political paralysis of the 17 nations guarantees this thing hits a wall. As a writer said, the extend and pretend strategy will only hold for so long. Eventually, without a meaningful solution we are going to see the Greece mess replay itself in Portugul, Spain, Italy and possibly more countries. Already we are seeimg the cost of fund shoot up in EU countries as much of their debt comes up for renewal. It's a short skip from here to not having access to funds to borrow and then the civil unrest that follows when govt wages and pensions are no made.

It's time to be scared and to be prepared cause the qheel are coming off in Europe. The real challenge is seeing where the dominos after Europe crashes.

All I can say is, at some time the toilet must be flushed.
A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.- James Freeman Clarke

Politics is supposed to be the second-oldest profession.  I have come to realize that it bears a very close resemblance to the first.  ~ Ronald Reagan ~

Always remember "Feelings Aren't Facts."

Offline Dan

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2011, 07:10:24 AM »
A Euro collapse will hurt China and to a lesser extent the US. But it will also lead to a lot of hardship in places like Africa and South America where the economies are largely dependent upon exports to Europe.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Offline Possumpoint

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2012, 12:20:54 PM »
You may be feeling the ground shake start. More down grades on friday followed by calls from Germany to have Greece turn over control of its finances to the EU.

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Offline Solar

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2012, 12:27:25 PM »
You may be feeling the ground shake start. More down grades on friday followed by calls from Germany to have Greece turn over control of its finances to the EU.

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OUCH!!!
The first Domino is about to fall and there will be no stopping the momentum.
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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2012, 01:04:59 PM »
We're all paying the price for our short-sighted leaders when their most compelling ambition is for themselves.

Offline Dan

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2012, 03:39:17 AM »
Europe is getting hit by the double whammy of the unbearable cost of their bloated wellfare state and the complete lack of monetary flexibility resulting from the EU structure.

The only reason we aren't hitting the wall right now is because we can print more money to fund our deficit spending. Unlike Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugul.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Offline Seawolf

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2012, 06:54:13 AM »
A Euro collapse will hurt China and to a lesser extent the US. But it will also lead to a lot of hardship in places like Africa and South America where the economies are largely dependent upon exports to Europe.
Dan, it will put us into a depression, if not a collapse.  Sorry to have to say this but we have quite a few global companies right here in the US for which I work for one that will be impacted directly.  This is not a case of it just being contained in Europe, this will be a global event,  It can not be simply contained to Europe.  Europe is going to come apart at the seams and we are going to witness riots and collapses we have not seen since the last Great Depression.  There simply is no where for the world to turn to too hide their investments.  We are also in a dire strait.  16 trillion in debt and climbing going rapidly down the same path that Europe has been on.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2012, 06:58:34 AM by Seawolf »

Offline Dan

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2012, 05:08:47 PM »
Obviously it cannot be contained. But that doesn't mean the US will go into depression.some stocks will go down and a few corporate jobs will be lost but our strong internal consumption and the relative strength of our banks will position us far better than the developing economies.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Offline Possumpoint

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2012, 05:48:10 PM »
I think that since about 30% of our exports go to Europe it would cause a deepening of our recession and an increase of 3 to 6 percentage points on our unemployment index. Next question would be would that be enough to sink Obama's re-election hopes?

Offline Seawolf

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2012, 06:40:26 PM »
Obviously it cannot be contained. But that doesn't mean the US will go into depression.some stocks will go down and a few corporate jobs will be lost but our strong internal consumption and the relative strength of our banks will position us far better than the developing economies.
Well, it's hard to say just how hard it will impact us but as we stand today we are in deep trouble with our own debt and inability to reign in our government's spending.  We have done nothing to turn this massive ship around.

Offline Dan

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2012, 07:57:15 PM »
I don't dispute the problems of our debt. But to an extent they are mitigated by two factors. First the deleveraging of corporate and personal US debt at a strong rate. Second is the monetary flexibilty that few other countries have.

Our chickens will eventually come home to roost but we are playing by a different set of rules than most countries.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Offline Seawolf

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2012, 03:42:42 AM »
What different set of rules?

Offline Dan

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2012, 10:04:10 AM »
First, we have greater monetary flexiblity. When we run out of money we just print more (ie getting the Fed to buy our treasuries) while the Europeans can only spend what they are able to borrow. If we played under those rules we would be seriously worse off than today.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Offline Dan

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Re: The upcomimg Euroquake
« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2012, 10:19:18 AM »
Also our growing govt debt is largely offset by the deleveraging of our personal debt and corporate debt. Total debt (govt, corp, personal) in the US is about 200% of GDP. More or less the same spot we were in 4 years ago while Japan and the UK are around 500% of GDP when you look at all categories of debt.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

 

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