Were you surprised by the financial crisis in 2008?
Or were you among the few who saw it coming?
Would you like to be able to see a future financial crisis coming?
And if you could, you certainly would want to be able to prepare for it!
You'd certainly want to position yourself to avoid a loss!

On Saturday, July 17, Glenn Beck's weekly radio show
included a rerun from April 29:

Scary Laws About Your Money
Updated 04/29/2016 | 3:20 PM EDT
http://www.glennbeck.com/2016/04/29/scary-laws-about-your-money/

(His weekly shows are not up to date, like Rush's.)

On this show, Glenn interviewed  Chris Martenson, PhD,
author of  Prosper  and cofounder of  peakprosperity.com .
They spoke about the test run in Cyprus a couple of years ago
to see if the banks could get away with a "bail in"
instead of a bailout like in 2008.  It succeeded.

A bail in means that the banks can cover any shortfall
by taking money from their depositors,
instead of taxpayers, like a bailout.
None of us would be happy about losing 15% of our bank account,
like in Cyprus!

If only it was just 15% !
On this page:   http://occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/derivatives/dq415.pdf
Scroll down to Page 42 of 50, and find 
Table 4 -
CREDIT EQUIVALENT EXPOSURES
TOP 25 COMMERCIAL BANKS, SAVINGS ASSOCIATIONS AND TRUST COMPANIES IN DERIVATIVES
DECEMBER 31, 2015, $ MILLIONS

Notice: the largest bank,  JPMORGAN CHASE BANK
has assets of $1.9 trillion, and a derivatives exposure of $51 trillion -
more than all the money in the world!
Not just all the dollars!  The total amount of money in ALL currencies!

But the most relevant number may be the far right column:
(%) TOTAL CREDIT EXPOSURE TO CAPITAL
If I'm reading this right, it looks like
if everyone who has extended credit to the bank
(depositors, i.e., you!) wanted to withdraw their money,
the bank wouldn't be able to pay even half of it!

The derivatives exposure might not be as bad as it appears.
Many of the contracts are with other banks.
So, a loss to one bank from any one contract
would be a corresponding gain to another bank.

But it's more likely that the derivatives are with
bank officers and other Wall Street fat cats.
And the derivatives are designed to enrich the fat cats
regardless of what the market does!
Aaaand, a recent law says that a corporation (including a bank)
may continue trading in derivatives AFTER it has filed for bankruptcy!
http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/financial/ruling-clique-gets-congress-to-legalize-plunder!/

Another recent law (mentioned in the Glenn Beck interview)
says that holders of derivatives come first
in distributing the assets in a bankruptcy.
Bank depositors come FAR down the list.
Odds are, in case of any crisis,
the money will run out LONG before ANY depositor gets paid!

Are you horrified yet?

Considering that the boards of directors
that oversee the major corporations
are getting to be more and more like ONE GIANT BOARD
that oversees ALL the major corporations,
http://conservativepoliticalforum.com/financial/sarbanes-oxley-is-a-hostile-takeover-of-all-publicly-traded-corporations!/
It looks like this next coming planned crisis
is a way to drive into bankruptcy
everyone who is not part of the ruling clique!

That is, the handful of people (a few thousand, out of seven billion)
who have managed to transfer to themselves ownership
of the majority of the shares of the major corporations
(by paying themselves with shares of stock in addition to cash)
have designed a crisis
(which they will trigger when it will give this handful of people
the greatest political advantage)
that will squeeze out everyone else who owns any stock!
Leaving these few with COMPLETE OWNERSHIP
of ALL the major corporations!

FOOTNOTE:
Here is where a mortgage broker called Rush Limbaugh
and explained how the government, Fannie Mae, etc.
pressured mortgage issuers to make bad loans,
(and tutored them in how to
fraudulently inflate borrowers' credit scores!)
which set up the planned 2008 financial crisis:
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2011/12/07/a_mortgage_broker_on_rapid_credit_rescores_for_subprime_loans

Kinda like this stuff, right?  pure Russian BS
http://www.maxkeiser.com/author/peak-prosperity/

or this sky-is-falling stuff?
http://www.peakprosperity.com/

could it be this?
http://www.christianpost.com/news/russia-troll-farm-spreads-fake-news-about-united-states-140200/

QuoteStaffed by mostly young adults eager to make higher than average wages, the trolls work in 12-hour shifts, with quotas of 135 posts or so per shift. There are an estimated 400 employees. One department is completely devoted to posting on LiveJournal, which is popular in Russia; another one is dedicated to creating images and "demotivators," images that denigrate their subject matter. One department deals entirely with Ukrainian propaganda, other departments target The New York Times, the BBC and CNN. Even the conservative site The Blaze has been targeted in its comments section. Popular social media sites trolled include Instagram, Twitter and VKontakte, which is Russia's version of Facebook.

Trolls receive strict instructions on using keywords and responding back and forth to each other in comments. A "Villain Troll" plays devil's advocate, and a "Picture Troll" responds with photos to discredit the Villain Troll.

Funny how this stuff has a familiar ring - some of the fake conservatives here are just hit-n-run artists.

QuoteThe trolls have gone so far as to create fake screenshots of news websites in order to bolster the fake stories they create. One of the primary goals of IRA is to make the U.S. look bad, so people will question whether the U.S. has any moral legitimacy criticizing Russia.

Are you PAID to write this nonsense, or completely duped by the crap RT pumps out, you can't tell the difference?

Quote from: Hoofer on July 31, 2016, 01:33:44 PMAre you PAID to write this nonsense, or completely duped by the crap RT pumps out, you can't tell the difference?

Are you serious, Hoofer?  Are you suggesting, like Obama, Hillary and much of the MSM, that the economy is robust?  The stock market is near an all-time high, so everything is peachy.  Right?

I hope that's not what you meant.  Labor participation rate is the lowest it's been in many years.  Real unemployment is a multiple of the number Obama claims.  Manufacturing continues to drop off.  World shipping is near an all-time low.  Housing prices are nearly back to 2007 (bubble) levels.  And big banks are barely solvent.

The stock market is the odd man out.  And why is it so high?  Companies are buying their own stock with super-cheap loans.  For many, it's actually cheaper to get a loan than to pay dividends. 

Quote from: KenJackson on September 01, 2016, 11:07:07 AM
Are you serious, Hoofer?  Are you suggesting, like Obama, Hillary and much of the MSM, that the economy is robust?  The stock market is near an all-time high, so everything is peachy.  Right?

I hope that's not what you meant.  Labor participation rate is the lowest it's been in many years.  Real unemployment is a multiple of the number Obama claims.  Manufacturing continues to drop off.  World shipping is near an all-time low.  Housing prices are nearly back to 2007 (bubble) levels.  And big banks are barely solvent.

The stock market is the odd man out.  And why is it so high?  Companies are buying their own stock with super-cheap loans.  For many, it's actually cheaper to get a loan than to pay dividends.

Oops!  Sorry I missed your reply.

Despite the labor participation rate in the dumpster, and the stock market at all time highs - I think the market is going HIGHER - and nothing is peachy-keen.   If you're a doom-n-gloomer like Glenn Beck, Ron Paul, Alex Jones - looking for demons under every rock - I say, "have at it!"

Why?

Some businesses ARE going quite well, regardless of the labor participation rate - which drives the Russia Today (RT) bloggers bonkers, they don't understand Capitalism or a free market economy at all.  Their economy wouldn't exist were it not for American Capitalism.  My house has increased over 10% in value, you must be living in the city.  Manufacturing dropping off..?  pure BS coming from Russia Today, we are SO BUSY at the company I work for, we're hiring - and probably going to aquire another company the end of this year or next.  This is the beginning of September, per my payroll with all the overtime thus far, I've already reached my entire year's base salary - with 4 months to go!

Now if you're buying everything as advertised on the Beck show, the freeze-dried, end-times crap, here's a little capitalist math, just rough math, mind you...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JDX0H3wt4E

About $3000 for the unit.

A month of freeze dried food, 60 servings... $109, just add water, 2 adults, 1 meal a day.
http://www.cabelas.com/product/Cabelas-Emergency-Food-Bucket-Servings/1570045.uts?

$3000 / 109 = 27 months.

Unless you grow everything, then add the expense of purchasing FOOD to freeze dry, and electricity (yup, lots of it), to freeze to sub-subzero and evacuate (vacuum pump all the moisture out takes about 24 hrs for about 2 meals).. $$$$$  Yup, you'd probably be into $5000-6000 before you had the same volume of Mountain House or Cabelas freeze dried meals.  For the same amount of money, growing, cooking, freeze drying, packaging in special bags with oxygen absorbers, etc., I bet we could have 4-5 years of already packaged & prepared food.

What's the point?

If you look around, there are plenty of success and failure stories waiting to be told.  Those of us who are REAL Capitalists, and entrepreneurs see opportunities EVERYWHERE - it's you Socialist/Communists who are sitting on your hands, waiting for the Government to "create your job opportunity".

Turn off anything with the RT logo, quit filling your mind with the next doom & gloom story, and learn something I did from a 96 year old guy, an old saw mill guy ... for his birthday, he decided to start his 6th sawmill, and said the opportunities were there, if a guy opened his eyes and took advantage of them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Z2_kKAe9y0
I love this commercial, because I've proved it is absolutely true and AT&T would agrees with me.

Ask yourself this, rather obvious question:  If the economy is SO BAD...

How is it Glenn Beck and Mark Levin are doing so good? Opportunities... everywhere.
Even Ron Paul doesn't do commercials for free.

There are those who make it happen,
those who see it happen,
those who wonder what happened,
those who are oblivious to what happened.

Socialism & Communism DOES NOT WORK.  It literally depends on stealing ideas & labor of others to look like it's succeeding.

I looked into freeze drying at home years ago, and with just a cursory overview of the math (believe me, as a dyslexic, that's a bitch) I quickly discovered there was absolutely no savings to be found.
Electricity alone eats up any and all savings no matter how many years you do this. It's soooo much cheaper to buy it from a freeze drying Co.

We're getting a bunch of unrelated things all mixed up.

I never said anything about the freeze-dried food.  I do have a number of boxes of canned food that I bought at the local warehouse grocery store, but I expect them to be used up before the expiration dates.  And I'll replace as we go.  I'm just maintaining an inventory.  The bother of freeze drying compared to buying is enough to scare me away.

Quote from: Hoofer on September 02, 2016, 07:03:03 AM
If you're a doom-n-gloomer like Glenn Beck, Ron Paul, Alex Jones - looking for demons under every rock - I say, "have at it!"

Alex Jones is in a category all by himself.  Some of the stuff he says seems valuable and worthy of our attention, but it's hard to sort out because of his obvious love of drama, sensationalism and hype.  Plus I can only stand to hear his voice for a few minutes at a time.

Quote from: Hoofer on September 02, 2016, 07:03:03 AM
Turn off anything with the RT logo, ...

You seem to have a jones for RT.  What's with that?  I have that channel enabled on my Roku device, but I rarely end up watching it.  If they say the economy is bad, they're sure not the only ones.

Quote from: Hoofer on September 02, 2016, 07:03:03 AM
Ask yourself this, rather obvious question:  If the economy is SO BAD...

How is it Glenn Beck and Mark Levin are doing so good?

It's a logic error to pick one or two people and judge the economy by them.  Besides, the economy is not the main topic either of those people talk about.

There are bubbles that are large and growing larger.  Do you remember the house flippers that got caught in 2007/2008?  They bought houses, did minimal repairs or improvements and sold them for big profits until the bubble burst and they found themselves holding houses worth a lot less than they paid for them.  Well in some cities, the average house price is already back up to their 2007 highs.

The derivatives bubble is like an anvil being supported by a bamboo stick flapping in the wind.

Up until a couple years ago, foreign central banks only increased their US treasuries holdings and very rarely sold any off.  But in the last couple years, more than 1.5 trillion dollars worth of US treasuries have been sold off by foreign central banks.  The big question is: WHO BOUGHT the treasuries and WHERE did they GET THE MONEY??

The suspicion is that the Fed bought them with freshly created dollars.  There's no other place that much money could have come from.  And all that money creation ("money printing") is very likely to lead to hyper inflation, just like it did in Wiemar Republic, Zimbabwe and Venezuela.

Quote from: Hoofer on September 02, 2016, 07:03:03 AM
Socialism & Communism DOES NOT WORK.  It literally depends on stealing ideas & labor of others to look like it's succeeding.

True.  But a non sequitur.

Quote from: Hoofer on September 02, 2016, 07:03:03 AM
Manufacturing dropping off..?  pure BS coming from Russia Today, we are SO BUSY at the company I work for, we're hiring - and probably going to acquire another company the end of this year or next.  This is the beginning of September, per my payroll with all the overtime thus far, I've already reached my entire year's base salary - with 4 months to go!

Forgot to ask.  Is your company MANUFACTURING stuff?  When I said that manufacturing continues to drop off, I wasn't talking about business in general, but specifically those companies that buy raw materials and apply industrial processes to them IN THE US and sell the resulting product.  Manufacturing something in China or elsewhere foreign doesn't count--that's part of the problem.

If your company actually does do manufacturing, it's anecdotal and not representative.

Except that an acquisition could be considered consolidative.  It might imply there's no longer enough business to keep both companies profitable, so they combine.

BTW, you're jonesing on Russia Today.

Quote from: KenJackson on September 02, 2016, 09:58:47 AM
Forgot to ask.  Is your company MANUFACTURING stuff?  When I said that manufacturing continues to drop off, I wasn't talking about business in general, but specifically those companies that buy raw materials and apply industrial processes to them IN THE US and sell the resulting product.  Manufacturing something in China or elsewhere foreign doesn't count--that's part of the problem.

If your company actually does do manufacturing, it's anecdotal and not representative.

Except that an acquisition could be considered consolidative.  It might imply there's no longer enough business to keep both companies profitable, so they combine.

BTW, you're jonesing on Russia Today.

- I work for a company who wants to EXPAND by purchasing another company's infrastructure, nothing about "consolidating" - why are you so negative?

- I started a business 3 years ago that manufactures specialty devices / components which by word-of-mouth is booming.  We don't even have a website - and 75% of our components, come from American companies, which go into final assembly right here in Virginia!  We can't keep up with demand, and R&D is a whole other issue, we don't have TIME - we do the brainstorming while driving.

- A good friend of mine owns an architectural firm, he has been having trouble finding help - no, you don't want to ask what he pays, it's not a money issue.... he was a "commercial property flipper" as a sideline, also started a trucking business as a sideline.  During Katrina, his trucks had the "special stickers" that made them exempt from everyone - non-stop delivery of goods, per President Bush.  I guess he was just "lucky" not to get "caught" holding expensive commercial properties in Florida and Texas, huh?

- Another friend of mine broke away from his employer and -gasp- started his own business about the same time I did... oh, he wants to HIRE me, with zero experience, but because I have a "good work ethic".  This guy is also an investor, and has become an avid reader, he hasn't gotten burned by any of the "corrections" of 2008 or 2000 (like I did).

- My son just completed an internship at a local bank.  The IT director personally thanked me for teaching my son "how to work" and said, "If you know 2-3 more IT guys like him, PLEASE, send them my way!"  They do not advertise, and it's the biggest bank in the area & growing.

- Another good friend of mine in Ohio has been looking for a Carpenter/Cabinet Maker for years to expand his business - again, it's not a money issue, like the others, they lack the skills or don't want to apprentice/intern to gain the skills.

- Another friend of ours in Wyoming was looking for "warm bodies" for his business... it is/was so bad, just walking down the street, he was approached with regularity, "Would you like a job?"  He remotely runs businesses in 3 states.

- Another friend of mine QUIT his business in Wisconsin, because he couldn't find enough help, and couldn't do it by himself - health reasons.

Maybe that's the real problem, we're all entrepreneurs and associate with entrepreneurs instead of people who are content to work for someone else.  All of us, including my son, are looking for opportunities and know "how to sell' ourselves, and/or our products.
A couple of these guys have never "worked" for anyone but themselves - none of us are rich, or brag about wealth, drive fancy cars or live in houses above what's commonly found in our neighborhoods.  Believe it or not, among everyone of these average guys, I'm the idiot by comparison - every one of them are extremely smart & humble.   I guess my frame of reference is Government is not the solution, Government is the problem...  HT - Ronald Reagan.

When I started a business to go up against AT&T, I structured it for speed, responsiveness and staffed it with stellar technicians.
AT&T's business model involved so many "layers of management" - by the time they were able to respond to customer requests, literally days later, we already had the parts in hand, troubleshooted, fixed & billed the customer.  While one of their biggest, high-profile customers languished for a week, from a hack into their system, they called us, and while on-the-phone we shut down the intruder.  When another customer called asking for a different configuration for a temporary staff change... and waited days for a technician to show up, we worked their system "live" over the phone, until we had it working the way they wanted, about an hour.

It's the quick, nimble ones that take market share from the big lumbering ones.

Now, it might have looked like AT&T was suffering, business was down, etc., etc., but just like a new Cell Phone Carrier effects Verizon, Sprint & T-mobile - it in no way means the economy is slowing, quite the opposite, it's growing.  Just as Mark Levin expands his business, so has Glenn Beck expanded his, and obviously, Alex Jones is expanding his business (to you) - but, apparently you missed that anecdotal, non representative, point.  Everywhere I look, I see businesses expanding, growing, startups - partly because, I and other's like me, are not going to WAIT for some "talking head" media type to tell me a year later, "Oh, business is UP!"  Does "opportunity" need to break down the door & slap you in the face - you say, "wha..t?"

This is no different than a teenager looking for a summer job, printing up a bunch of leaflets, and mowing lawns, rotor-tilling gardens, trimming trees, landscaping - and if it starts looking really good, he hires his buddies and it grows into a winter snow plowing business, summer landscaping...  Next thing you know, they're bidding on construction projects.  BTW, yeah, I forgot to mention that guy, he employs a bunch of guys, year round.  Another town, just south of him, same type of business, this guy pioneered & merged weather predictions with how he services his customers - he & his employees are able to take lots of time off, and make lots of money, without the need to be "on-call".

My Grandfather was self-taught, and became the personal treasurer/secretary to a midwest manufacturer - you would recognize.
My Dad, also an independent businessman, said, "Your friends will encourage or discourage success - choose wisely!"
My Dad also warned us kids, "There is someone out there.. who can do your job 2x faster, twice as good, for 1/2 the pay - what makes you so special?"

When I figured out Russia Today was bent on destroying moral and American Entrepreneurial Spirit - that stuff that makes America unique and great - I didn't just ignore it, I point it out to others.  When I read something that has the same "look" and "feel" of RT - whether they're useful idiots or not, why not remind them too?  The original post of this thread WAS about the economy and financial issues, which I completely disagreed with...   And just pointed out, business is good for doom 'n gloomers too, using examples of a freeze dryer company who probably couldn't sell any of them, were it not for 'the right kind of marketing' pitch...  Does it take a Marketing Major to understand HOW crap can be pitched as roses?  (not implying Harvest Right is crap, or roses, please!)  RT is pitching CRAP, period.

Really, I encourage everyone reading this, to take stock of your "buddies" and "websites" - are they making you better or bitter?


Getting a bit long winded here, so I'll end with this... interesting observation - and it ought to be fairly obvious.
The guys who started this forum are pretty darn smart and might not have a whole lot of patience after all these years of suffering fools.
Me?  I'm just a VERY average guy, so Punkin the Pollster tells me - that'll keep a guy humble... so why does the MSM seem so believable - when we know they have an agenda... of shaping policy & opinion?

Quote from: Hoofer on September 02, 2016, 08:07:14 PM
- I work for a company who wants to EXPAND by purchasing another company's infrastructure, nothing about "consolidating" - why are you so negative?

OK, based on your testimony, I declare you to be good for America.

You and your friends aren't the problem, but the problem most definitely exists.  There's a difference between being negative and having your eyes open.

In high school history class back in the 70's, I was shocked to learn how the Wiemar Republic just kept printing more and more currency.  There was a picture of an old lady pushing a wheelbarrow full of currency to the grocery store.  I've seen other pictures of people burning bundles of marks in their furnace to keep warm because firewood cost more than it's weight in currency.

For all the decades since, I've been puzzled and perplexed.  HOW could that government have been so STUPID?  And all during that time I've been aware that our own US government was spending more than revenues year after year, decade after decade, growing the debt.  As if that wasn't bad enough, Obama has DOUBLED the debt.  And who are we borrowing from?  No one.  No country is buying US treasuries.  (Many are dumping US treasuries.)  It's hidden but we're just creating it or printing it like Wiemar did.

If Wiemar wasn't recent enough to strike fear, Zimbabwe gave us a repeat:


Here's a graph of the value of one US dollar measured in Zimbabwe dollars during the month and a half that it took hyperinflation to destroy all their life savings:


We normally have a stock market crash about every seven years and we're due.  But multiple knowledgeable, patriotic, good people are saying this time everything is aligned to make it really, really bad.  The dollar itself may even collapse, like the Zimbabwe graph above.

And it gets worse.  As of about 2008, all the world's stock markets rise and fall in sync.  It used to be that at least Russia and Brazil were independent and would rise and fall according to their own timing.  Go back in time further and they were all largely independent.  Not any more.  They're all in sync.  Which means if the US has the big one, all countries in our ever shrinking globe share the pain.

The problem is really summed up as, America is creeping towards Communism / Socialism.

We don't have go through a financial "crash" as you and "Je" put it, but with either Donald or Hillary, "trouble" is a "given".  Will it change anything "I" do...?  Probably not much...

Until I took stock, and mentioned it, wifey agrees, ALL of my closest friends, and just recently ANOTHER one, has started a new business repairing small engines and taken over a sewing machine business.  Everyone makes interesting choices in life, some without realizing it - I guess that's one I didn't realize until now. 

But, "we", like to encourage others to "start a business", especially when they start talking about how they think something business-wise could be done better -if-...   Everyone who is unhappy with their employer, ought to think about it, or start a weekend business, if it succeeds he/she has just expanded the economy.

If you're expecting a financial collapse, WHAT are you going to do about it?  Become immobilized in fear?

Be a consumer or supplier?

At least people still need to EAT, and they can't eat silver or gold bars. 
Sure looks like an opportunity to me!

Oh ... I'm sorry..., Glenn Beck and his buddies are already cashing on that stuff, and business is very good for the gloom 'n doomers.