Is There a Stock Mkt Correction Coming THIS YEAR?

Started by Solar, January 03, 2014, 12:56:58 PM

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Solar

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of "disappointing performance" in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett's holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in "consumer product stocks" by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett's apparent lack of faith in these companies' future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn't alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson's hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

After all, the stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally leveled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations. And the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.

It's very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock.
http://www.newsmax.com/Outbrain/billionaires-dump-economist-stocks/2012/08/29/id/450265#ixzz2pN4Fohmm

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Dan

Timing is a hard thing to predict, but the the structural weakness is as plain as the noses on our faces.

When the fed pulls back and monetary supply tightens, then stock prices are going to drop.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Solar

Quote from: Dan on January 03, 2014, 01:16:44 PM
Timing is a hard thing to predict, but the the structural weakness is as plain as the noses on our faces.

When the fed pulls back and monetary supply tightens, then stock prices are going to drop.
Can you say "INSIDE TRADER/INFORMATION"?
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Dan

The crazy thing is that bubbles are everywhere. The trick is trying to predict the next one to pop.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Solar

#4
Quote from: Dan on January 03, 2014, 04:33:11 PM
The crazy thing is that bubbles are everywhere. The trick is trying to predict the next one to pop.
Yep, and in the past bubbles were usually a part of the whole mkt, unfortunately, this time it's the entire mkt that's a bubble.
It's one of two things, collusion between the rich attempting to manipulate the mkt, or they have insider information.
Either way, it's illegal, but when you're a commie like Soros, it's how the game is played.

If I had anything in this mkt, I'd get the hell out, because these people know something the rest of us don't.

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Dan

China has a massive banking sector bubble. Ditto for the EU. The US has a monetary bubble that is insane. I could go on but you get the point. The world economy is so many successive bubbles resting on each other that it's hard to tell where one ends and the other begins.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

Solar

Quote from: Dan on January 04, 2014, 06:29:22 AM
China has a massive banking sector bubble. Ditto for the EU. The US has a monetary bubble that is insane. I could go on but you get the point. The world economy is so many successive bubbles resting on each other that it's hard to tell where one ends and the other begins.
Good point, and if ours pops first, the rest will follow quickly. So far we've survived the Euro near collapse, even stabilized it a bit.

Ya know, I almost don't care what happens, our Nation is on the wrong track anyways, so a course correction, or total derailment could be just what we need, though unless it happens, we'll never know if it will help or hurt us in the long run.
But something has to give, we can't go borrowing and inflating the dollar much longer.
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Dan

One of the negative side affects of the left's identity politics and politics of hate and division is that so many people now do not feel they have a stake in the wellfare of the nation or the prosperity of it's citizens.

We are balkanizing as a nation.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.

supsalemgr

Quote from: Dan on January 04, 2014, 12:26:19 PM
One of the negative side affects of the left's identity politics and politics of hate and division is that so many people now do not feel they have a stake in the wellfare of the nation or the prosperity of it's citizens.

We are balkanizing as a nation.

I took profits throughout 2013. The challenge is where do you put it? I have gone to short term bonds that provide a smaller return, but if held to maturity you get full value plus earnings. At some point when interest rates begin to rise some money markets might become more attractive.
"If you can't run with the big dawgs, stay on the porch!"

Dan

Quote from: supsalemgr on January 04, 2014, 05:35:59 PM
I took profits throughout 2013. The challenge is where do you put it? I have gone to short term bonds that provide a smaller return, but if held to maturity you get full value plus earnings. At some point when interest rates begin to rise some money markets might become more attractive.
[/quote

The key is to keep yourself nimble and be able to go liquid on very short notice. When the fed conrtacts then rates will go up and bonds will be for shit. We could easily have a 20=25% correction in the stock market.

Take profits while you can but always keep an eye on running to the sidelines when things get crazy.
If you believe big government is the solution then you are a liberal. If you believe big government is the problem then you are a conservative.