Conservative Political Forum

General Category => Library => Alternate Boards => 2014 Tea Party Candidate Vetting => Topic started by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 06:14:32 PM

Title: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 06:14:32 PM
Senate: (in some races, 1 or 2 percent go to minor candidates)

SD: Rounds beats Pressler and Weiland 50-30-20 (R+1)
MT: Daines beats Walsh 58-40 (R+2)
NC: Tillis beats Hagan 55-45 (R+3)
AR: Cotton beats Pryor 56-42 (R+4)
LA: Cassidy beats Landrieu 57-43 (R+5)
AK: Sullivan beats Begich 53-47 (R+6)
WV: Capito beats Tennant 58-42 (R+7)
CO: Gardner beats Udall 55-42 (R+8)
IA: Ernst beats Braley 54-44 (R+9)

Also, call me crazy, but I think we have a really good chance at an upset in Minnesota with Mike McFadden. He's a successful businessman, is raising money like crazy, and has a lot of appeal to voters, especially over a piece of garbage like Al Franken.

Governor:

We pick up Illinois, Arkansas, and Connecticut at the very least, though thanks to Dumbocrats failing at recruiting in Hawaii and Taxachusetts, we have good shots at those. Literally the only pickup oppurtunity for the Democra Party was Florida, but Crist (party-switcher) is trailing in the polls, and, while it will be close, he's probably and thankfully going to lose.

House:

We pick up around 10 or so seats. Matheson's, Barrow's, Owens', and McIntyre's seats are in the bag. We're also have the advantage in Patrick Murphy's, Sinema's, Barbers, Kirkpatrick's, Bishop's, and Peters' seats. Plenty of other competitive seats like Ruiz's and Maffei's seat are looking good for us.

What are your predictions?
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: taxed on July 19, 2014, 07:57:20 PM
NCWP, what part of the country are you from?
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:00:26 PM
Quote from: taxed on July 19, 2014, 07:57:20 PM
NCWP, what part of the country are you from?

SoCal, why?
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:03:21 PM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:00:26 PM
SoCal, why?

Just curious.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:09:04 PM
What are your predictions based on?
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
Quote from: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:09:04 PM
What are your predictions based on?

I read other political sites so I have a lot of background knowledge on individual races and races. I pay close attention to polls released daily (and obviously throw out garbage DNC polls like PPP, which is literally paid for my Democrats) so I can determine where races stand.

Politico and Washington Post are fairly good resources, but since they are MSM, they do have a Lib slant, so I use rule of thumb when reading their articles.

I have one rule: AVOID DAILY KOS. All their articles are about how Hillary's coattails will give Dems a "supermajority" in congress lol.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:22:52 PM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
I read other political sites so I have a lot of background knowledge on individual races and races.
With the exception of Dave Perdue, you mean?

Quote
I pay close attention to polls released daily (and obviously throw out garbage DNC polls like PPP, which is literally paid for my Democrats) so I can determine where races stand.

Politico and Washington Post are fairly good resources, but since they are MSM, they do have a Lib slant, so I use rule of thumb when reading their articles.

I have one rule: AVOID DAILY KOS. All their articles are about how Hillary's coattails will give Dems a "supermajority" in congress lol.
Do you look at RCP?
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:30:22 PM
Quote from: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:22:52 PM
With the exception of Dave Perdue, you mean?
Do you look at RCP?

Haha at the David Perdue thing. I honestly had no idea the guy was such a RINO. I assumed he would be better than Kingston because he's a businessman, but clearly not.

Yeah, RCP is very resourceful. However, do not look at their prediction maps. They're not actually predicting anything: it just shows who wins based on who is leading in the average of current polls. However, they use garbage like PPP in their averaging, so take it with a grain of salt.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:36:35 PM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:30:22 PM
Haha at the David Perdue thing. I honestly had no idea the guy was such a RINO. I assumed he would be better than Kingston because he's a businessman, but clearly not.

Yeah, RCP is very resourceful. However, do not look at their prediction maps. They're not actually predicting anything: it just shows who wins based on who is leading in the average of current polls. However, they use garbage like PPP in their averaging, so take it with a grain of salt.

What do you think of Nate Silver?
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:41:14 PM
Quote from: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:36:35 PM
What do you think of Nate Silver?

Decent statistician but on a personal level I think he's a Dem Hack. He's a Daily Kos poster, for one thing.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:43:28 PM
Also, I forgot to mention that I predict McConnell to beat Grimes and Kingston to beat Nunn.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:46:07 PM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:43:28 PM
Also, I forgot to mention that I predict McConnell to beat Grimes and Kingston to beat Nunn.

I'm not sure I like that Grimes prediction.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:47:20 PM
Quote from: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:46:07 PM
I'm not sure I like that Grimes prediction.

I know. I was really, really pulling for Matt Bevin (his Tea Party challenger) to win the primary. I would've much preferred to type "Bevin beats Grimes"
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:50:11 PM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:47:20 PM
I know. I was really, really pulling for Matt Bevin (his Tea Party challenger) to win the primary. I would've much preferred to type "Bevin beats Grimes"

I mean, I want Grimes to win.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:52:44 PM
Quote from: taxed on July 19, 2014, 08:50:11 PM
I mean, I want Grimes to win.

I'm feeling kinda conflicted. On one hand, if McConnell loses, we could get a Senator Majority Leader John Cornyn (TX) or John Thune (SD), instead of an idiot like McConnell who hates the Tea Party and lets Obo shove his agenda down our throats. On the other hand, Grimes is a Liberal.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:53:08 PM
If I lived in KY I'd vote for the Libertarian in the race.
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: Solar on July 19, 2014, 08:55:06 PM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:52:44 PM
I'm feeling kinda conflicted. On one hand, if McConnell loses, we could get a Senator Majority Leader John Cornyn (TX) or John Thune (SD), instead of an idiot like McConnell who hates the Tea Party and lets Obo shove his agenda down our throats. On the other hand, Grimes is a Liberal.
Don't assume the RINO will have the power after Nov to pick and choose leaders..
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:59:00 PM
Quote from: Solar on July 19, 2014, 08:55:06 PM
Don't assume the RINO will have the power after Nov to pick and choose leaders..

I really hope not.

Still *fingercrossing for Majority Leader Cruz!  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: Solar on July 19, 2014, 09:02:24 PM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 08:59:00 PM
I really hope not.

Still *fingercrossing for Majority Leader Cruz!  :thumbsup:
3
:biggrin:

You mean President Cruz. :thumbup:
Title: Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
Post by: supsalemgr on July 20, 2014, 04:30:17 AM
Quote from: No Chance Without Paul on July 19, 2014, 06:14:32 PM
Senate: (in some races, 1 or 2 percent go to minor candidates)

SD: Rounds beats Pressler and Weiland 50-30-20 (R+1)
MT: Daines beats Walsh 58-40 (R+2)
NC: Tillis beats Hagan 55-45 (R+3)
AR: Cotton beats Pryor 56-42 (R+4)
LA: Cassidy beats Landrieu 57-43 (R+5)
AK: Sullivan beats Begich 53-47 (R+6)
WV: Capito beats Tennant 58-42 (R+7)
CO: Gardner beats Udall 55-42 (R+8)
IA: Ernst beats Braley 54-44 (R+9)

Also, call me crazy, but I think we have a really good chance at an upset in Minnesota with Mike McFadden. He's a successful businessman, is raising money like crazy, and has a lot of appeal to voters, especially over a piece of garbage like Al Franken.

Governor:

We pick up Illinois, Arkansas, and Connecticut at the very least, though thanks to Dumbocrats failing at recruiting in Hawaii and Taxachusetts, we have good shots at those. Literally the only pickup oppurtunity for the Democra Party was Florida, but Crist (party-switcher) is trailing in the polls, and, while it will be close, he's probably and thankfully going to lose.

House:

We pick up around 10 or so seats. Matheson's, Barrow's, Owens', and McIntyre's seats are in the bag. We're also have the advantage in Patrick Murphy's, Sinema's, Barbers, Kirkpatrick's, Bishop's, and Peters' seats. Plenty of other competitive seats like Ruiz's and Maffei's seat are looking good for us.

What are your predictions?

I like your attitude!  :thumbup: