Author Topic: 2014 Election Predictions?  (Read 3131 times)

Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
2014 Election Predictions?
« on: July 19, 2014, 06:14:32 PM »
Senate: (in some races, 1 or 2 percent go to minor candidates)

SD: Rounds beats Pressler and Weiland 50-30-20 (R+1)
MT: Daines beats Walsh 58-40 (R+2)
NC: Tillis beats Hagan 55-45 (R+3)
AR: Cotton beats Pryor 56-42 (R+4)
LA: Cassidy beats Landrieu 57-43 (R+5)
AK: Sullivan beats Begich 53-47 (R+6)
WV: Capito beats Tennant 58-42 (R+7)
CO: Gardner beats Udall 55-42 (R+8)
IA: Ernst beats Braley 54-44 (R+9)

Also, call me crazy, but I think we have a really good chance at an upset in Minnesota with Mike McFadden. He's a successful businessman, is raising money like crazy, and has a lot of appeal to voters, especially over a piece of garbage like Al Franken.

Governor:

We pick up Illinois, Arkansas, and Connecticut at the very least, though thanks to Dumbocrats failing at recruiting in Hawaii and Taxachusetts, we have good shots at those. Literally the only pickup oppurtunity for the Democra Party was Florida, but Crist (party-switcher) is trailing in the polls, and, while it will be close, he's probably and thankfully going to lose.

House:

We pick up around 10 or so seats. Matheson's, Barrow's, Owens', and McIntyre's seats are in the bag. We're also have the advantage in Patrick Murphy's, Sinema's, Barbers, Kirkpatrick's, Bishop's, and Peters' seats. Plenty of other competitive seats like Ruiz's and Maffei's seat are looking good for us.

What are your predictions?
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


Online taxed

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21374
  • Gender: Male
  • At some point, the money is due.
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2014, 07:57:20 PM »
NCWP, what part of the country are you from?
"Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government."  -Milton Friedman

Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2014, 08:00:26 PM »
NCWP, what part of the country are you from?

SoCal, why?
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


Online taxed

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21374
  • Gender: Male
  • At some point, the money is due.
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2014, 08:03:21 PM »
"Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government."  -Milton Friedman

Online taxed

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21374
  • Gender: Male
  • At some point, the money is due.
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2014, 08:09:04 PM »
What are your predictions based on?
"Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government."  -Milton Friedman

Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2014, 08:19:30 PM »
What are your predictions based on?

I read other political sites so I have a lot of background knowledge on individual races and races. I pay close attention to polls released daily (and obviously throw out garbage DNC polls like PPP, which is literally paid for my Democrats) so I can determine where races stand.

Politico and Washington Post are fairly good resources, but since they are MSM, they do have a Lib slant, so I use rule of thumb when reading their articles.

I have one rule: AVOID DAILY KOS. All their articles are about how Hillary's coattails will give Dems a "supermajority" in congress lol.
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


Online taxed

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21374
  • Gender: Male
  • At some point, the money is due.
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2014, 08:22:52 PM »
I read other political sites so I have a lot of background knowledge on individual races and races.
With the exception of Dave Perdue, you mean?

Quote
I pay close attention to polls released daily (and obviously throw out garbage DNC polls like PPP, which is literally paid for my Democrats) so I can determine where races stand.

Politico and Washington Post are fairly good resources, but since they are MSM, they do have a Lib slant, so I use rule of thumb when reading their articles.

I have one rule: AVOID DAILY KOS. All their articles are about how Hillary's coattails will give Dems a "supermajority" in congress lol.
Do you look at RCP?
"Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government."  -Milton Friedman

Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2014, 08:30:22 PM »
With the exception of Dave Perdue, you mean?
Do you look at RCP?

Haha at the David Perdue thing. I honestly had no idea the guy was such a RINO. I assumed he would be better than Kingston because he's a businessman, but clearly not.

Yeah, RCP is very resourceful. However, do not look at their prediction maps. They're not actually predicting anything: it just shows who wins based on who is leading in the average of current polls. However, they use garbage like PPP in their averaging, so take it with a grain of salt.
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


Online taxed

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21374
  • Gender: Male
  • At some point, the money is due.
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2014, 08:36:35 PM »
Haha at the David Perdue thing. I honestly had no idea the guy was such a RINO. I assumed he would be better than Kingston because he's a businessman, but clearly not.

Yeah, RCP is very resourceful. However, do not look at their prediction maps. They're not actually predicting anything: it just shows who wins based on who is leading in the average of current polls. However, they use garbage like PPP in their averaging, so take it with a grain of salt.

What do you think of Nate Silver?
"Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government."  -Milton Friedman

Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2014, 08:41:14 PM »
What do you think of Nate Silver?

Decent statistician but on a personal level I think he's a Dem Hack. He's a Daily Kos poster, for one thing.
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2014, 08:43:28 PM »
Also, I forgot to mention that I predict McConnell to beat Grimes and Kingston to beat Nunn.
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


Online taxed

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21374
  • Gender: Male
  • At some point, the money is due.
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2014, 08:46:07 PM »
Also, I forgot to mention that I predict McConnell to beat Grimes and Kingston to beat Nunn.

I'm not sure I like that Grimes prediction.
"Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government."  -Milton Friedman

Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2014, 08:47:20 PM »
I'm not sure I like that Grimes prediction.

I know. I was really, really pulling for Matt Bevin (his Tea Party challenger) to win the primary. I would've much preferred to type "Bevin beats Grimes"
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


Online taxed

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 21374
  • Gender: Male
  • At some point, the money is due.
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2014, 08:50:11 PM »
I know. I was really, really pulling for Matt Bevin (his Tea Party challenger) to win the primary. I would've much preferred to type "Bevin beats Grimes"

I mean, I want Grimes to win.
"Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government."  -Milton Friedman

Offline No Chance Without Paul

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 43
  • Gender: Male
  • TEA: Taxed Enough Already
Re: 2014 Election Predictions?
« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2014, 08:52:44 PM »
I mean, I want Grimes to win.

I'm feeling kinda conflicted. On one hand, if McConnell loses, we could get a Senator Majority Leader John Cornyn (TX) or John Thune (SD), instead of an idiot like McConnell who hates the Tea Party and lets Obo shove his agenda down our throats. On the other hand, Grimes is a Liberal.
“I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” — Barack Obama


 

Powered by EzPortal